Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system

[Bravo96]

Hi all! On my opinion on football betting the main problem are draws. To avoid this frustrating factor I use Asian Handicap (-0) or Draw No Bet -option. To count probabilities on each game I use following criteria: - my own estimate of teams' position in the end of season - current team positions - current position in the form table (last 4 or 6 games) - home team's position in the home form table - away team's position in the away form table - home team, last 5 seasons performance at home ground (win-draw-lose%) - same for the away team on travel of course... - geographical distance between the teams (when more than 300 km's, 5% advantage for the home team) - last game performance, estimate, taking account manager's comments and shots+corners conceaded - injuries (goal keepers, defence, main goal scorers) - encounters between the teams (when more than 20) I don't bet on so called local derbies or when a team has just played or will next have Euro League or Champions League game. Starting bank is 1000 points with 10 points each bet. I'm using real money, so thumbs up guys! So far betting on the English Championship, League 1 and Scottish Premier. Hope you understood something...:\ So here is the first choices!!: 1. Ipswich v Nottm Forest CH, prob.49.3% - 50.7% (2.03 - 1.97), AWAY 2.46 2. Plymouth v Watford CH, 41.2% - 58.8% (2.43 - 1.70), AWAY 2.06 3. Scunthorpe v Preston NE CH, 39.0% - 61.0% (2.57 - 1.64), AWAY 1.90 4. Sheff Weds v Middlesbrough CH, 51.9% - 48.1% (1.93 - 2.08), HOME 2.16 5. Swansea City v Bristol City CH, 48.6% - 51.4% (2.06 - 1.94), AWAY 2.20 Okay, this Shef.Wed seems an odd one, but have to stick to the system, I quess....?

[davidc]

Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system Hi Bravo96 - good luck with your system. It looks like you are looking for value odds compared to your own estimation - how much better odds are required before you bet? E.G. Sheffield Weds bet - your odds 2.08, bookies odds 2.16 which is approximately 7.5% better.