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Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system


Bravo96

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Hi all! On my opinion on football betting the main problem are draws. To avoid this frustrating factor I use Asian Handicap (-0) or Draw No Bet -option. To count probabilities on each game I use following criteria: - my own estimate of teams' position in the end of season - current team positions - current position in the form table (last 4 or 6 games) - home team's position in the home form table - away team's position in the away form table - home team, last 5 seasons performance at home ground (win-draw-lose%) - same for the away team on travel of course... - geographical distance between the teams (when more than 300 km's, 5% advantage for the home team) - last game performance, estimate, taking account manager's comments and shots+corners conceaded - injuries (goal keepers, defence, main goal scorers) - encounters between the teams (when more than 20) I don't bet on so called local derbies or when a team has just played or will next have Euro League or Champions League game. Starting bank is 1000 points with 10 points each bet. I'm using real money, so thumbs up guys! So far betting on the English Championship, League 1 and Scottish Premier. Hope you understood something...:\ So here is the first choices!!: 1. Ipswich v Nottm Forest CH, prob.49.3% - 50.7% (2.03 - 1.97), AWAY 2.46 2. Plymouth v Watford CH, 41.2% - 58.8% (2.43 - 1.70), AWAY 2.06 3. Scunthorpe v Preston NE CH, 39.0% - 61.0% (2.57 - 1.64), AWAY 1.90 4. Sheff Weds v Middlesbrough CH, 51.9% - 48.1% (1.93 - 2.08), HOME 2.16 5. Swansea City v Bristol City CH, 48.6% - 51.4% (2.06 - 1.94), AWAY 2.20 Okay, this Shef.Wed seems an odd one, but have to stick to the system, I quess....?

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system Hi Bravo96 - good luck with your system. It looks like you are looking for value odds compared to your own estimation - how much better odds are required before you bet? E.G. Sheffield Weds bet - your odds 2.08, bookies odds 2.16 which is approximately 7.5% better.

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system 1. Ipswich v Nottm Forest CH 1-1 +-0 (0) 2. Plymouth v Watford CH 0-1 HIT!!(+20,07) 3. Scunthorpe v Preston NE CH 3-1 MISS!! (-10) 4. Sheff Weds v Middlesbrough CH 1-3 MISS!! (-10) 5. Swansea City v Bristol City CH 0-0 +-0 (0) Starting bank:1000 Current bank:990,07 Total staked:30 Total returned:20,07 Number of bets:5 Winning bets:1 Losing bets:2 No bets:2 Strike rate:33,33% Yield:-33,10% Profit (or Loss):-9,93 Commission of 5% has been taken from the profit. Could've been worse... Sheffield Wed was a clear risk, but reason they were favourite in my books was historical encounters between the 2 teams, SW having upperhand. But not this time even they took the lead in the first half. New selection for the week end coming soon!:ok

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system Here are my selections. Could be few more before the Saturday kick-off: 6. Barnsley v Swansea City CH, prob.48.6% - 51.4% (2.06 - 1.95), AWAY (0) 2.03, Betfair 7. Peterborough v Reading CH, 47.1% - 52.9% (2.12 - 1.89), AWAY (0) 2.20, Betfair 8. Brentford v Bristol Rovers L1, 46.6% - 53.4% (2.15 - 1.87), AWAY (0) 1.95, Betfair 9. Norwich v Charlton L1, 45.3% - 54.7% (2.21 - 1.83), AWAY (0) 1.83, Betfair 10. Oldham v Carlisle Utd L1, 46.6% - 53.4% (2.15 - 1.87) AWAY (0) 1.87, Betfair

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system 6. Barnsley v Swansea City CH, prob.48.6% - 51.4% (2.06 - 1.95), AWAY (0) 2.03, Betfair, result: 0-0 draw, +-0 (0) 7. Peterborough v Reading CH, 47.1% - 52.9% (2.12 - 1.89), AWAY (0) 2.20, Betfair, result: 3-2 home win, MISS!!, (-10) 8. Brentford v Bristol Rovers L1, 46.6% - 53.4% (2.15 - 1.87), AWAY (0) 1.95, Betfair, result: 1-3 away win, HIT!!, (+19,02) 9. Norwich v Charlton L1, 45.3% - 54.7% (2.21 - 1.83), AWAY (0) 1.83, Betfair, result: 2-2 draw, +-0 (0) 10. Oldham v Carlisle Utd L1, 46.6% - 53.4% (2.15 - 1.87) AWAY (0) 1.87, Betfair, result: 2-0 home win, MISS!! (-10) 11. Watford v Leicester CH, 53.7% - 46.3% (1.86 - 2.16), HOME (0) 1.86, Betfair, result: 3-3 draw, +-0 (0) Lady Luck seemed to turn her back on me. On three occasions 90th minute goal turned result from good to bad. Peterboro scores on 90th minute (from money back to loss), Norwich score on 90th minute (from profit to money back) and also Leicester scores in the last minute to turn profit to money back:wall Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 979,09 Total staked: 60 Total returned: 39,09 Number of bets:11 Winning bets:2 Losing bets: 4 No bets (draws): 5 Strike rate: 33,33% Yield: -33,10 Profit (or Loss) : -34,95 Commission of 5% has been taken from the profit. Will go to my cave to lick the wounds, will be back next week....:(

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system Hello again! First of all I must make corrections to my countings. So this is how my profit table should look like: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 979,09 Total staked: 60 Total returned: 39,09 Number of bets:11 Winning bets:2 Losing bets: 4 No bets (draws): 5 Strike rate: 33,33% Yield: -34,85 Profit (or Loss) : -20,91 Commission of 5% has been taken from the profit. So back to the business: 12. Leicester v Preston NE CH, prob.48.6% - 51.4% (2.06 - 1.94), AWAY (0) 2.31, Betfair 13. Reading v Watford CH, 48.7% - 51.3% (2.05 - 1.95), AWAY (0) 2.09, Betfair 14. Swansea City v Sheff Utd CH, 38.0% - 62.0% (2.63 - 1.61), AWAY (0) 1.71, Betfair 15. Gillingham v Norwich L1, 58.2% - 41.8% (1.72 - 2.39), HOME (0) 1.97, Betfair 16. Hartlepool v Walsall L1, 49.3% - 50.7% (2.03 - 1.97) AWAY (0) 2.34, Betfair 17. Ipswich v Newcastle CH, 45.9% - 54.1% (2.18 - 1.85, AWAY (0), 1.85, Betfair might be some additions before the kick off...

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system 12. Leicester v Preston NE CH, prob.48.6% - 51.4% (2.06 - 1.94), AWAY (0) 2.31, Betfair, result: 1-2 away win, HIT!!(+22,43) 13. Reading v Watford CH, 48.7% - 51.3% (2.05 - 1.95), AWAY (0) 2.09, Betfair, result: 1-1, draw, +-0 (0) 14. Swansea City v Sheff Utd CH, 38.0% - 62.0% (2.63 - 1.61), AWAY (0) 1.71, Betfair, result:2-1, home win, MISS!! (-10) 15. Gillingham v Norwich L1, 58.2% - 41.8% (1.72 - 2.39), HOME (0) 1.97, Betfair, result:1-1, draw, +-0 (0) 16. Hartlepool v Walsall L1, 49.3% - 50.7% (2.03 - 1.97) AWAY (0) 2.34, Betfair, result: 3-0, home win, MISS!! (-10) 17. Ipswich v Newcastle CH, 45.9% - 54.1% (2.18 - 1.85, AWAY (0), 1.85, Betfair, result: 0-4, away win, HIT!! (+18,07) 18. MK Dons v Leeds Utd L1, 46.5% - 53.5% (2.15 - 1.87), AWAY(0), 1.92, Betfair, result: 0-1, away win, HIT!! (+18,74) 19. Yeovil v Brentford L1, 48.6% - 51.4% (2.06 - 1.95), AWAY(0), 2.00, Betfair, result: 2-0, home win, MISS!!(-10) Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 978,33 Total staked: 120 Total returned: 98,33 Number of bets:19 Winning bets:5 Losing bets: 7 No bets (draws): 7 Strike rate: 41,67% Yield: -18,06 Profit (or Loss) : -21,67 Commission of 5% has been taken from the profit. A slightly better this time...:) See you soon!!

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system 20. Brentford v Southend L1, 48.0% - 52.0% (2.08 - 1.92), AWAY(0), 2.17, Betfair 21. Colchester v Charlton L1, 50.7% - 49.3% (1.97 - 2.03), HOME(0), 2.13, Betfair 22. Stockport v Hartlepool L1, 45.5% - 54.5% (2.20 - 1.83), AWAY(0), 2.17, Betfair 23. Exeter City v Swindon L1, 47.9% - 52.1% (2.09 - 1.92), AWAY(0), 2.05, Betfair 24. Southampton v Bristol Rovers L1, 46.7% - 53.3% (2.14 - 1.88), AWAY(0), 2.34, Betfair

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system 20. Brentford v Southend L1, 48.0% - 52.0% (2.08 - 1.92), AWAY(0), 2.17, Betfair, result: 2-1, home win, MISS! (-10) 21. Colchester v Charlton L1, 50.7% - 49.3% (1.97 - 2.03), HOME(0), 2.13, Betfair, resul: 3-0, home win, HIT! (+20,73) 22. Stockport v Hartlepool L1, 45.5% - 54.5% (2.20 - 1.83), AWAY(0), 2.17, Betfair, result:2-2 draw, +-0 (0) 23. Exeter City v Swindon L1, 47.9% - 52.1% (2.09 - 1.92), AWAY(0), 2.05, Betfair. result: 1-1, draw. +-0 (0) 24. Southampton v Bristol Rovers L1, 46.7% - 53.3% (2.14 - 1.88), AWAY(0), 2.34, Betfair, result:2-3 away sin, HIT! (+22,73) that's more like it ;) !! Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 991,79 Total staked: 150 Total returned: 141,79 Number of bets:24 Winning bets:7 Losing bets: 8 No bets (draws): 9 Strike rate: 46,67% Yield: -0,05 Profit (or Loss) : -8,21 Commission of 5% has been taken from the profit.

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system Hello all! This is my early selection for today. Will be some more later. 25. Preston NE v West Brom CH, 52.1% - 47.9% (1.92 - 2.09) , HOME(0), 2.07, Betfair 26. Swansea City v QPR CH, 46.5% - 53.5% (2.15 - 1.87), AWAY(0), 2.03, Betfair 27. Colchester v Huddersfield L1, 62.7% - 37.3% (1.60 - 2.68), HOME(0), 1.60, Betfair

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system 28. Barnsley v Ipswich CH, 54.1% - 45.9% (1.85 - 2.18), HOME(0), 1.85, Betfair 29. Peterborough v Nottm Forest CH, 47.9% - 52.1% (2.09 - 1.92), AWAY(0), 2.10, Betfair 30. Plymouth v Scunthorpe CH, 48.0% - 52.0% (2.08 - 1.92), AWAY(0), 2.22, Betfair 31. Reading v Middlesbrough CH, 48.1% - 51.9% (2.08 - 1.93), AWAY(0), 2.03, Betfair 32. Stockport v Southend L1, 50.7% - 49.3% (1.97 - 2.03), HOME(0), 1.97, Betfair 33. Derby V Sheff Weds CH, 53.5% - 46.5% (1.87 - 2.15), HOME(0), 1.90, Betfair Good luck!!

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system 25. Preston NE v West Brom CH, 52.1% - 47.9% (1.92 - 2.09) , HOME(0), 2.07, Betfair, result: 0-0, draw, +-0 (0) 26. Swansea City v QPR CH, 46.5% - 53.5% (2.15 - 1.87), AWAY(0), 2.03, Betfair, result: result 2-0, home win, MISS! (-10) 27. Colchester v Huddersfield L1, 62.7% - 37.3% (1.60 - 2.68), HOME(0), 1.60, Betfair, result : 1-0, home win, HIT! (+15,70) 28. Barnsley v Ipswich CH, 54.1% - 45.9% (1.85 - 2.18), HOME(0), 1.85, Betfair, result : 2-1, home win, HIT! (+18,07) 29. Peterborough v Nottm Forest CH, 47.9% - 52.1% (2.09 - 1.92), AWAY(0), 2.10, Betfair, result: 1-2, away win, HIT! (+20,45) 30. Plymouth v Scunthorpe CH, 48.0% - 52.0% (2.08 - 1.92), AWAY(0), 2.22, Betfair, result: 2-1, home win, MISS! (-10) 31. Reading v Middlesbrough CH, 48.1% - 51.9% (2.08 - 1.93), AWAY(0), 2.03, Betfair, result: 0-2, away win, HIT! ( +19,78) 32. Stockport v Southend L1, 50.7% - 49.3% (1.97 - 2.03), HOME(0), 1.97, Betfair, result: 0-2, away win, MISS! (-10) 33. Derby V Sheff Weds CH, 53.5% - 46.5% (1.87 - 2.15), HOME(0), 1.90, Betfair, result: 3-0, home win, HIT! (+18,55) Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1004,34 Total staked: 230 Total returned: 234,34 Number of bets:33 Winning bets:12 Losing bets: 11 No bets (draws): 10 Strike rate: 52,17% Yield: 1,89 % Profit (or Loss) : + 4.34 Commission of 5% has been taken from the profit. I think I will unleash the little dancing guy for this one...:nana

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system Hello! Because of international games not so much to choose from, but here is something my system found for today: 34. Swindon v Millwall L1, 54.5% - 45.5% (1.83 - 2.20), HOME(0), 1.88, Betfair 35. Yeovil v Brighton L1, 51.4% - 48.6% (1.95 - 2.06), HOME(0), 2.00, Betfair Best of luck!!!

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system 34. Swindon v Millwall L1, 54.5% - 45.5% (1.83 - 2.20), HOME(0), 1.88, Betfair, draw, +-0 (0) 35. Yeovil v Brighton L1, 51.4% - 48.6% (1.95 - 2.06), HOME(0), 2.00, Betfair, draw, +-0 (0) Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1004,34 Total staked: 230 Total returned: 234,34 Number of bets:35 Winning bets:12 Losing bets: 11 No bets (draws): 12 Strike rate: 52,17% Yield: 1,89 % Profit (or Loss) : + 4.34 Commission of 5% has been taken from the profit. Two draws in the end :(

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  • 2 weeks later...

Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system Hello!! Here are my first selections for today. Some very good prices there: 36. C.Palace v Nottm Forest CH, 47.8% - 52.2% (2.09 - 1.91), AWAY(0), 2.28, Betfair 37. Derby v QPR CH, 50.7% - 49.3% (1.97 - 2.03) , HOME(0), 2.20, Betfair 38. Sheff Utd v Cardiff City CH, 45.8% - 54.2% (2.18 - 1.85), AWAY(0), 2.25, Betfair

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system this is the final selection for today. 39. Peterborough v Scunthorpe CH, 45.7% - 54.3% (2.19 - 1.84), AWAY(0), 2.56, Betfair 40. Plymouth v Ipswich CH, 54.3% - 45.7% (1.84 - 2.19), HOME(0), 2.16, Betfair 41. Carlisle Utd v Southend L1, 42.1% - 57.9% (2.38 - 1.73), AWAY(0), 2.22, Betfair It seems this my systems takes the underdogs and turn them to favourites...:lol, but let's hope it works. Anyway good luck everybody:clap

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system 36. C.Palace v Nottm Forest CH, 47.8% - 52.2% (2.09 - 1.91), AWAY(0), 2.28, Betfair, result 1-1, draw +-0, (0) 37. Derby v QPR CH, 50.7% - 49.3% (1.97 - 2.03) , HOME(0), 2.20, Betfair, result 2-4, away win, MISS (-10) 38. Sheff Utd v Cardiff City CH, 45.8% - 54.2% (2.18 - 1.85), AWAY(0), 2.25, Betfair, result 3-4, away win, HIT (+21,87) 39. Peterborough v Scunthorpe CH, 45.7% - 54.3% (2.19 - 1.84), AWAY(0), 2.56, Betfair, result 3-0, home win, MISS (-10) 40. Plymouth v Ipswich CH, 54.3% - 45.7% (1.84 - 2.19), HOME(0), 2.16, Betfair, result 1-1, draw +-0, (0) 41. Carlisle Utd v Southend L1, 42.1% - 57.9% (2.38 - 1.73), AWAY(0), 2.22, Betfair, result 2-1, home win, MISS (-10) Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 986,21 Total staked: 270 Total returned: 256,21 Number of bets:41 Winning bets:13 Losing bets: 14 No bets (draws): 14 Strike rate: 48,15% Yield: -5,11 % Profit (or Loss) : - 13,79 Commission of 5% has been taken from the profit. Well, disappointing night:cry.... Maybe I must go back to the drawing board and make some modifications...:unsure

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Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system Here are the results: 43. Doncaster v Blackpool CH, 48.6% - 51.4% (2.06 - 1.94), AWAY(0), 2.20, Betfair, result 3-3, draw +-0 (0) 44. Brighton v Hartlepool L1, 47.1% - 52.9% (2.12 - 1.89), AWAY(0), 2.09, Betfair, result 3-3, draw +-0 (0) 45. Scunthorpe v Swansea City CH, 53.4% - 46.6% (1.87 - 2.15), HOME, 2.00, Betfair, result 0-2 ,away win, MISS (-10) 46. Exeter City v Brentford L1, 50.7% - 49.3% (1.97 - 2.03), HOME, 2.01, Betfair, result 3-0, home win, HIT (+19,59) 47. Coventry v Reading CH, 51.5% - 48.5% (1.94 - 2.06, HOME, 1.97, Betfair, result 1-3 , away win, MISS (-10) Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 985,77 Total staked: 310 Total returned: 295,77 Number of bets:47 Winning bets:15 Losing bets: 16 No bets (draws): 16 Strike rate: 48,39% Yield: -4,59 % Profit (or Loss) : - 14,23 Yep, still not quite working....This time my home favourites let me down and then there were couple of crazy 3-3 draws for the away favourites...:eyes

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  • 3 weeks later...

Re: Bravo's Money for Nothing or DRAW NO BET -system Thank you for your kind words Bedlam!!:ok I have changed the system a little bit. I've decided to put more emphasis on the recent performances. Only if certain criteria, based on goals conceded and result (win, draw, lose) in the last three games are met the game is qualified. So less selections but more quality i hope... 48. Coventry v C.Palace CH, 46.5% - 53.5% (2.15 - 1.87), AWAY(0), 1.94, Betfair 49. Southampton v Norwich L1, 49.3% - 50.7% (2.03 - 1.97), AWAY(0), 2.11, Betfair

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