PERFECT Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 Here i will always lay on BF following the rules: - with draw odd over 5.00 i will lay the draw - with home team odd between 3.00 and 4.50 i will lay the home team - i choose the matches looking mostly at the overall stats and the form - starting bank will be 100 units - each bet will be 10% liability of the starting bank - if double the bank the liability will be 15% of the current bank - after an error next bet of the same type will be double liability, so 20% of starting bank, if this will be a lost i will restart with 10% Let’s start… - Falkirk - Aberdeen lay Falkirk 3.3 stake 10 to win 4.34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted September 16, 2009 Author Share Posted September 16, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw - Falkirk - Aberdeen 0 - 0 :ok I will count the commissions for each bet Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 104.13 Number of bets: 1 Winning bets: 1 Total staked: 10 Yeld: 41.3% S.r.: 100% - Blackpool - Newcastle lay Blackpool 3.75 stake 10 to win 3.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted September 18, 2009 Author Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw - Blackpool - Newcastle 2 - 1 :$ Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 94.13 Number of bets: 2 Winning bets: 1 Total staked: 20 Yeld: -29.3% S.r.: 50% Bastia - Nantes lay Bastia 3.6 stake 20 to win 7.30 Salernitana - Torino lay Salernitana 4.5 stake 10 to win 2.71 De Graafschap - Sittard lay draw 6.8 stake 10 to win 1.63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted September 19, 2009 Author Share Posted September 19, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw Bastia - Nantes 1 - 1 :ok Salernitana - Torino 0 - 3 :ok De Graafschap - Sittard 2 - 0 :ok Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 105.77 Number of bets: 5 Winning bets: 4 Total staked: 60 Yeld: 9.6% S.r.: 80% - Wycombe - Milton Keynes lay Wycombe 3.9 stake 10 to win 3.27 - Grenoble - Rennes lay Grenoble 4.0 stake 10 to win 3.16 - Newcastle - Plymouth lay draw 5.0 stake 10 to win 2.37 - Oxford - Eastbourne lay draw 5.0 stake 10 to win 2.37 - Juventus - Livorno lay draw 5.6 stake 10 to win 2.06 - Barcelona - Atl. Madrid lay draw 6.0 stake 10 to win 1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jl294 Posted September 19, 2009 Share Posted September 19, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw Hi PERFECT, I was looking at your previous thread of 'Home Win' and I was wondering if you think your system is actually sustainable? You made over 100% profit from when you were doing it. Do you reckon that profit would have continued? I was thinking of something pretty much the same as you. Home team odds below 2.0, steamers (price dropping) and in league position better. Have you continued using that system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted September 20, 2009 Author Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw Hi jl294, i haven’t continued to use it. I think it could still give profit with some proper “filters“, selectioning only a few from all matches that meet the criteria. All depends from the filters applied. - Wycombe - Milton Keynes 0 - 1 :ok - Grenoble - Rennes 0 - 4 :ok - Newcastle - Plymouth 3 - 1 :ok - Oxford - Eastbourne 4 - 0 :ok - Juventus - Livorno 2 - 0 :ok - Barcelona - Atl. Madrid 5 - 2 :ok Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 120.90 Number of bets: 11 Winning bets: 10 Total staked: 120 Yeld: 17.4% S.r.: 90.9% - Heerenveen - Twente lay Heerenveen 3.65 stake 10 to win 3.58 - Kolding - Naestved lay Kolding 3.5 stake 10 to win 3.8 - IFK Göteborg - Hammarby lay draw 5.30 stake 10 to win 2.20 - Horsens - Frem lay draw 7.4 stake 10 to win 1.48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw - Heerenveen - Twente 0 - 2 :ok - Kolding - Naestved 0 - 3 :ok - IFK Göteborg - Hammarby 2 - 0 :ok - Horsens - Frem 8 - 1 :ok Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 131.96 Number of bets: 15 Winning bets: 14 Total staked: 160 Yeld: 19.9% S.r.: 93.3% - AIK - Örgryte lay draw 5.0 stake 10 to win 2.37 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw Good going mate, nice and steady. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw Cheers a1ehouse! - AIK - Örgryte 3 - 0 :ok Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 134.33 Number of bets: 16 Winning bets: 15 Total staked: 170 Yeld: 20.2% S.r.: 93.7% - Vienna - A. Lustenau lay Vienna 3.5 stake 10 to win 3.80 - Forest Green - Kidderminster lay Forest Green 4.1 stake 10 to win 3.06 - Gateshead - Rushden lay Gateshead 4.2 stake 10 to win 2.96 - Stevenage - Grays lay draw 5.6 stake 10 to win 2.06 Edit: lay Vienna, not A. Lustenau Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw - Vienna - A. Lustenau 0 - 2 :ok - Forest Green - Kidderminster 1 - 1 :ok - Gateshead - Rushden 0 - 0 :ok - Stevenage - Grays 1 - 1 :$ Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 134.15 Number of bets: 20 Winning bets: 18 Total staked: 210 Yeld: 16.2% S.r.: 90.0% - Nafta - Velenje lay Nafta 3.25 stake 10 to win 4.22 - Gent - Westerlo lay draw 5.10 stake 20 to win 4.63 - Getafe - Valencia lay Getafe 3.15 stake 10 to win 4.41 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw - Nafta - Velenje 5 - 2 :$ - Gent - Westerlo 1 - 2 :ok - Getafe - Valencia 3 - 1 :$ Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 118.78 Number of bets: 23 Winning bets: 19 Total staked: 250 Yeld: 7.5% S.r.: 82.6% - Emmen - Helmond lay Emmen 4.5 stake 20 to win 5.42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted September 26, 2009 Author Share Posted September 26, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw - Emmen - Helmond 1 - 3 :ok Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 124.20 Number of bets: 24 Winning bets: 20 Total staked: 270 Yeld: 9.0% S.r.: 83.3% - Köln - Leverkusen lay Köln 3.8 stake 10 to win 3.39 - Blackburn - Aston Villa lay Blackburn 3.10 stake 10 to win 4.52 - Ayr Utd - Raith lai Air Utd 3.05 stake 10 to win 4.63 - Tranmere - Colchester lay Colchester 3.75 stake 10 to win 3.45 - Ipswich - Newcastle lay Ipswich 3.10 stake 10 to win 4.52 - Sligo - Shamrock lay Sligo 4.5 stake 10 to win 2.71 - Livorno - Fiorentina lay Livorno 3.95 stake 10 to win 3.22 - Wisla - Polonia W. lay draw 5.0 stake 10 to win 2.37 - Benfica - Leixoes lay draw 6.4 stake 10 to win 1.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted September 26, 2009 Author Share Posted September 26, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw Correction: Tranmere - Colchester lay Tranmere 3.75 stake 10 to win 3.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richardvador Posted September 26, 2009 Share Posted September 26, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw Hello PERFECT , please, where can i find a formula to predict correct score for all European championships football or 1X2 predictions ? i used many softwares, doesn't succeed :wall thanks richard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted September 27, 2009 Author Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw Hi Richard, i haven’t the right formula yet, what work in the short time can fail in the long. A simple formula to start with could be: with team A vs team B, count: [(total win team A - total lost team A) + (total lost team B - total win team B)] / (total matches team A + total matches team B) For example team A has 4-0-1 and team B 1-1-3, the reasult is 1/2 or 50%. Then compare this to the market odds to see if there is value. - Köln - Leverkusen 0 - 1 :ok - Blackburn - Aston Villa 2 - 1 :$ - Ayr Utd - Raith 1 - 0 :$ - Tranmere - Colchester 1 - 1 :ok - Ipswich - Newcastle 0 - 4 :ok - Sligo - Shamrock 1 - 2 :ok - Livorno - Fiorentina 0 - 1 :ok - Wisla - Polonia W. 2 - 1 :ok - Benfica - Leixoes 5 - 0 :ok Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 125.61 Number of bets: 33 Winning bets: 27 Total staked: 360 Yeld: 7.1% S.r.: 81.8% - Juventus - Bologna lay draw 6.2 stake 10 to win 1.82 - Lyngby - Brabrand lay draw 6.4 stake 10 to win 1.75 - Viikingit - TPV Tampere lay draw 5.0 stake 10 to win 2.37 - Kayserispor - Kasimpasa lay draw 5.0 stake 10 to win 2.37 - Orduspor - Konyaspor lay Orduspor 3.65 stake 20 to win 7.16 - Sirius - Mjällby lay Sirius 3.75 stake 10 to win 3.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richardvador Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw Hello PERFECT , thanks so much, i will try this simple formula please, how must i compare the result to the market odds if there is value : - if result is negatif - if result is nul 0 - if result is 50%, i have to choose the higher odd or smaller odd thanks for all :notworthy richard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw Richard, value is subjective, depends from what you compare with, for the above example with team A 4-0-1 and team B 1-1-3 you must see the odds and if team A plays at home or away. Is there generally value for you if team A plays away and odd for home win is 3.4 ? Clearly that’s not enough to find value in a match, you have to find some other elements that give a more wide view. - Juventus - Bologna 1 - 1 :$ - Lyngby - Brabrand 3 - 0 :ok - Viikingit - TPV Tampere 4 - 0 :ok - Kayserispor - Kasimpasa 0 - 0 :$ - Orduspor - Konyaspor 1 - 1 :ok - Sirius - Mjällby 1 - 4 :ok Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 120.34 Number of bets: 39 Winning bets: 31 Total staked: 430 Yeld: 4.7% S.r.: 79.5% Another goal in “zona cesariniâ€, Bologna at 92’ after Blackburn at 89’. However current bank still in profit. - Strasbourg - Caen lay Strasboug 3.25 stake 10 to win 4.22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw - Strasbourg - Caen 2 - 2 :ok Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 124.56 Number of bets: 40 Winning bets: 32 Total staked: 440 Yeld: 5.6% S.r.: 80.0% - Hereford - Bournemouth lay Hereford 4.1 stake 10 to win 3.06 - Northampton - Rotherham lay Northampton 3.5 stake 10 to win 3.80 - Fiorentina - Liverpool lay Fiorentina 4.1 stake 10 to win 3.06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw - Hereford - Bournemouth 2 - 1 :$ - Northampton - Rotherham 3 - 1 :$ - Fiorentina - Liverpool 2 - 0 :$ Full RED house :$ :D Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 94.56 Number of bets: 43 Winning bets: 32 Total staked: 470 Yeld: -0.01% S.r.: 74.4%% - Dornbirn FC - Gratkorn lay Dornbirn FC 3.45 stake 10 to win 3.87 - Helmond - Omniworld lay draw 5.3 stake 20 to win 4.41 - Emmen - Apeldoorn lay Emmen 4.2 stake 20 to win 5.93 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted October 3, 2009 Author Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw - Dornbirn FC - Gratkorn 1 - 2 :ok - Helmond - Omniworld 2 - 1 :ok - Emmen - Apeldoorn 3 - 1 :$ Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 82.84 Number of bets: 46 Winning bets: 34 Total staked: 520 Yeld: -3.3% S.r.: 73.9% - Braga - Setubal lay draw 5.3 stake 10 to win 2.20 - Feyenoord - Waalwijk lay draw 7.2 stake 10 to win 1.53 - St. Etienne - Bordeaux lay St. Etienne 4.0 stake 10 to win 3.16 - Dumbarton - Stirling lay Dumbarton 4.2 stake 10 to win 2.96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted October 4, 2009 Author Share Posted October 4, 2009 Re: Lay Home Win / Draw - Braga - Setubal 2 - 0 :ok - Feyenoord - Waalwijk 3 - 0 :ok - St. Etienne - Bordeaux 3 - 1 :$ - Dumbarton - Stirling 2 - 3 :ok Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 79.53 Number of bets: 50 Winning bets: 37 Total staked: 560 Yeld: -3.6% S.r.: 74.0% - Sturm - Kapfenberg lay draw 6.8 stake 10 to win - Young Boys - Aarau lay draw 7.8 stake 10 to win - Honka - Rovaniemi PS lay draw 6.8 stake 10 to win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.