davidc Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 210 bets; yield +16% The 1st post said odds of 1.20 to 1.60, then a few post later it change to 1.45 to 1.80. So there might be some other changes further down the thread, but I don't want to read 37 pages. Post 685 on 14/04/2011 confirms the odds as 1.45 - 1.80 @ Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 3, 2011 Author Share Posted October 3, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 210 bets; yield +16% Sorry, I should have intervened in this discussion earlier. Davidc is absolutely correct.... my first post quoted an incorrect odds range, but I quickly changed it to 1.45 - 1.80 (Bet365), and I have stuck with that ever since. The only other thing that has changed is the staking plan.... it started off as a complicated, conservative "loss-recovery" system, but I dropped that in favour of a level-stakes system. As I have said many times before, there is absolutely no logic to the system.... but it seems to work reasonably well. Thanks to all for your interest... and let's hope for a successful 2011/12 season :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanyok Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 210 bets; yield +16% hi Grex, I have questions. 1. What made you change the stake plan? Is level-stake better that recovery system? 2. Bundesliga and Primera Division are not good at this system? Have you simulated? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanyok Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 210 bets; yield +16% double post. sorry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 210 bets; yield +16% Hi, Sanyok... and :welcome to PuntersLounge. Regarding the staking plan, I started runnung the "loss-recovery" system and a flat-stakes system in parallel in January 2010 (post #84). The flat-stakes system consistently performed better, so I dropped the "loss-recovery" system at the beginning of the 2010/11 season (post #285). As for the leagues, I back-tested most major European leagues (Spanish Primera, Bundesliga, French 1, Italy Serie A, English Premier, Championship, League 1) and the EP and Serie A came out best. As I said in the first post, there is no logical reason apart possibly from the fact that these leagues each have an "elite" of 3 to 4 teams who have amazing home performance records. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanyok Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 210 bets; yield +16% thanks for reply. good luck. keep watching you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 14, 2011 Author Share Posted October 14, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 210 bets; yield +16% Looks like a blank weekend for the system :\. QPR are just over the limit at 1.83, and Arsenal are just under at 1.44. There are two in Serie A..... Napoli at 1.50 and Genoa at 1.57, but unfortunately the league has only played 5 rounds of matches, and the system doesn't kick-in until after 6 rounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 210 bets; yield +16% So, next weekend the Italian Serie A qualifies for the first time this season..... and, based on early published odds, it looks as though there could be 5 selections. Excited??.... me neither:zzz BTW, both Napoli and Genoa failed to win..... wise move not to start until after 6 rounds of games ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 210 bets; yield +16% Hope the Italians manage to put their scoring boots this week ! Did you see the 0-0's last weekend , 5 from 7 games !!! I know they have a reputation for defensive play but 5 0-0's :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyVadah Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 210 bets; yield +16% When I saw the scores, my head screamed "Calciopoli" and "match fixing". Imagine the people with 0-0 lay systems got royally screwed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 19, 2011 Author Share Posted October 19, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 210 bets; yield +16% I didn't actually notice the high percentage of 0-0's...... but I think it's a bit early in the season to suggest "match fixing"...... that starts in April ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 224 bets; +16% yield :clapGreat stuff Grex, this system can safely be described as a proven performer, having achieved regular profit over 2 years! thanks for sharing:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 224 bets; +16% yield Thanks Bedlam.... yes it has performed with amazing stability.... certainly more than my expectations. But one word of warning..... this season's 15 selections have only produced a yield of 13%, so it could be on a decline..... the eternal pessimist ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 224 bets; +16% yield I've probably put the mockers on it now, by calling it a proven performer! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 224 bets; +16% yield One question I have Grex: how do you calculate your yield?? Cause if I calculate it it would be like it follows: (Total Profit Made(451.90)/Total Nr. of Selections(224)*Stake per Bet(10))*100 = (451.90/2240)*100 = 20,174% :) Am I doing something wrong? :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 224 bets; +16% yield Took UDINESE today :nana Cheers Grex :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 224 bets; +16% yield One slight error, UMD.... the profit is the current bank minus the starting bank... 451.90 - 100.00 = 351.90..... 351.90/2240 = 15.7% (Excel rounds this up to 16%) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 224 bets; +16% yield Took UDINESE today :nana Cheers Grex :cheers Well done, JTW..... hope you didn't go for Chelsea :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 224 bets; +16% yield One slight error, UMD.... the profit is the current bank minus the starting bank... 451.90 - 100.00 = 351.90..... 351.90/2240 = 15.7% (Excel rounds this up to 16%) :ok I see now. I thought that you've already removed the initial stake from the profit. My mistake. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 224 bets; +16% yield One question I have Grex: how do you calculate your yield?? Cause if I calculate it it would be like it follows: (Total Profit Made(451.90)/Total Nr. of Selections(224)*Stake per Bet(10))*100 = (451.90/2240)*100 = 20,174% :) Am I doing something wrong? :eek You need to change the brackets if ur doing it that way Yield = Profit / Total Stake 224*10 = total stake = 2240 profit = 351.90 = 451.90 - start bank BUT - the initial stakes varied, and i dont have figure for total staked (im not going to add it all up) - see first post, the stake was to reach a target of £10, later the stake was £10 straight up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 224 bets; +16% yield Well done' date= JTW..... hope you didn't go for Chelsea :loon Thankfully no ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jono Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 224 bets; +16% yield Nice one Grex. I got on the two Italian teams both with singles and as a double :nana Wasnt too sure about Chelsea so gave them a miss. I remember you saying a while ago that Italy was your best performing league, am I remembering that right? and is it still the case? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I was thinking as well, have you done a break down of teams or leagues that have a particularly high performance ? Would be interesting to see if any stand out , and if so, make a stake bonus accordingly. --- I am here: http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=51.493518,-0.234203 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 224 bets; +16% yield .... I remember you saying a while ago that Italy was your best performing league' date=' am I remembering that right? and is it still the case?[/quote'] I think you are referring to my "Overs" thread (post #429 on page 22) where Serie A was out-performing the Premier League and the Championship :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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