Best bet of the day - Sat 12th Sept

[fintron]

3.00 Doncaster - St Leger I've been excited about this race for weeks - the St Leger - the longest running classic that dates back to 1776 and is run over 1m 6f 132y at the Yorkshire track. It is disappointing the Age of Aquarius doesn't line up tomorrow as the race, as a spectacle, is worse off without the Ballydoyle leading fancy. After Johnny Murtagh was booked to ride he shot to the head of the betting but after he was pulled out of the race yesterday, Godolphin's Kite Wood has resumed favouritism. Kite Wood won a maiden here over a mile last season when with Michael Jarvis and after winning a Group 3 on his final start for that trainer, was snapped up by Saeed Suroor. He took several races to find his feet for the boys in blue and was disappointing when fifth in the Dante and ninth in the Derby, but he has turned things around since by landing two weaker Group 3's. Would he be a more likely winner if still in the care of Michael Jarvis? In my eyes, yes, but I just cannot be having him as short as 5/2 for this, even if this step up in trip entitles him to further improvement. Another embarassingly short priced selection is the second favourite, Changingoftheguard. This is a horse that was beaten in the Ebor handicap, yet is a best priced 10/3 for the race tomorrow. He is certain to stay this far and benefits from being ridden by Johnny Murtagh but his lack of pattern success means he looks awfully short for what he has (or hasn't achieved to date). Next up in the betting is Great Voltigeur winner, Monitor Closely. Peter Chapple-Hyam has been in great form at the track during the St Leger meeting and his Oasis Dream colt won that Group 2 contest on the Knavesmire really well. However, I think he is flattered by the margin of victory as it was only a modest gallop and allowed him to kick on at the death, perhaps finding extra that he wouldn't have done in a more strongly run race. In the aftermath of that race jockey Jimmy Fortune similarly questioned whether the colt would get the trip in the St Leger, and when interviewed in the past few days Chapple-Hyam has basically said it was the owners decision to pay the £45k to supplement him for the race and that his job was to prepare him for the task, rather than sounding confident about his stamina credentials. The Great Voltigeur has proven a key trial for this race in recent seasons so Mastery and Father Time - the two-three in this years renewal - must also be of interest. The thing that offputs me about Mastery is that he has failed to win a Group race to date, with his sole win coming in a Nottingham maiden. He has several pieces of placed form, including at the highest level, but I feel he would have been more happy than Father Time with how the Voltigeur unfolded and for that reason it is Henry Cecil's colt that gets my vote as he has a valid excuse for his third last time out. The St Leger has long been on the cards for Father Time after his win in the King Edward (Group 2) at Ascot earlier in the season. He won with some authority that day, finishing four lengths clear of the runner up, and it is fair to say that he wasn't suited by the modest pace of the Voltigeur in his run thereafter. He stayed on well at the death to suggest that this step up in trip would suit, and with Ballydoyle deploying a pacemaker to presumably set this up for Changingoftheguard, Jamie Spencer's mount may get the race set up nicely at the same time. Of the remainder, Mourayan makes some appeal from the John Oxx yard. He has never won beyond listed level but has several pieces of placed form at Group level, including behind Fame and Glory in the Irish Derby, and he is another that looks suited by this extra yardage. Above Average picked up a Group 3 on his reappearance at Sandown earlier in the season but has failed to build upon that since. Despite the comments of trainer Barry Hills, it would be surprising if he could edge three of these out of the frame to place here, and he looks to have a bit of work to do to reverse form with several of these based upon his placings in the Bahrain Trophy and Great Voltigeur. The final runner that makes up the field is Von Jawlensky who, ridden by Colm O'Donohoe, would appear to be here on pacemaking duties following the recent defection of Rockhampton. He made all to win a Curragh maiden in June and appears to have his work cut out tomorrow, judging by his sixth of six finish in a listed race at Leopardstown, latest. To summarise, for the winner, I'm returning to FATHER TIME who meets several historical trends for this race in light of his participation in the King Edward and Great Voltigeur. He is a group winner already and although not yet proven at the highest level, has scope for further improvement. Historically, runners from the front of the betting have done well, and the Cecil runner has been heavily backed in recent days, now into a best priced 11/2, and come race time he may well be joint third favourite with Monior Closely. Even from a form point of view he looks one to keep on the right side of over this longer trip with the prospect of a more truly run race, as as long as Jamie doesn't overdo the hold up tactics and have him all the way back at the DBS enclosure, I fancy him to be involved come the finish. Father Time - 2 pt Supernap

[Irishbugger]

Re: Best bet of the day - Sat 12th Sept 2.25 Doncaster 'Group Therapy' I napped Markab last time out and it won, although without much to spare, but the jockey booking initially attracts me to this horse today. Kevin Ryan has one with a live chance in 'Everymanforhimself' but Callan is freed up to ride for the Littmoden stable. Looking into the form, his penultimate run was decent, he beat a fair few of these home and a few runs ago finished just in front of Cheveton who won a decent sprint last Saturday. The current price of 33/1 is an insult.