Corinthians SP thread

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This thread will basically be a place where i'll post all of my picks and reasonings for the sports-punter competition. You know the rules, like in the real life i'll use mostly flat stakes at 10 pts with exception of some long shot bets with lower stake. Of course i'll continue my activity in other threads as well, but this will be a place with all of my picks from now on. So far stats : Strike rate: 117/207, 56.52% Total Stakes: 2418.20 pts Total Return: 2735.57 pts Total Profit: 317.37 pts Total Yield: 13.12%

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Re: Corinthians den France - Macedonia Under 144.5 @1.91 Bluesquare France won all three games in the first group phase, transfered two wins into second. Their defensive record is amazing so far, they allowed 51, 65 and 64 pts against Latvia, Germany and Russia, all three teams are better or at least not worse offensively than Macedonia. Macedonia did scored over 80 against Israel and 71 to Croatia but also, 51 against Greece indicates that they might have huge problems in this match. Also its important to say that Croatian defense were completely dominant in second half and thanks to their good defense they overcome 14 pts deficit from first and turned it into 10 pts win in the end. I really doubt that France will alow more than 65 pts to Macedonia, probably even 60, what could be a big step towards under 144.5. Line is IMO a bit too high. Russia - Croatia Lay Russia @3.50 Betfair Maybe its a bit risky to lay Russia at those odds looking at the results only but Croatia is simply much better team. They showed their real face in second half against Macedonia when defense worked like it should be working, and they were effective from all positions. Repeša is very experienced coach, he knows how important it is to catch the best form in crucial moment and Croatia's game should rise from match to match. Russia is after all a limited team, and this defeat will mean probably end of their quarter finals ambitions. Domžale - Koper Over 2.5 @1.80 Nordicbet Statistically this should be a winner. Domžale are having dissapointing season so far, ex-Slovenian champion is atm sitting on 9th position after 7 rounds and suffered some really nasty defeats recently, twice 4-1 against Velenje and Gorica, 3-1 against Maribor and so on. Last five games gone over this line with 4.2 goals pro game. On the other hand Koper is aiming for a title race with Maribor and they are currently topping the table with 6-1-0 and 6/7 overs so far. Koper a title contender vs struggling hosts... It should be an entertaining match, everything indicates that we'll see bunch of goals so take over 2.5. Arminia - Ahlen Arminia(-1.25) AH @1.92 Ladbrokes I hope Arminia pulled themselves together, especially in defense in this international break and that we'll see them cruising in this league very soon. They had two sloppy defeats against Koblenz and Augsburg before they smashed Furth on away but still they wasted six pts already and they played only four games. Ahlen were in the relegation battle for the whole last season and i really doubt that this season will be any difference. They simply lack quality comparing to other sides in the league and very rough season is ahead of them. Bielefeld shouldn't throw such matches away, three points today are a must, and Ahlen is simply to weak to resist them. Modena - Lecce Over 2.5 @2.21 betdaq Traditionally a low scoring league like Serie B from time to time offers such odds mostly basing them on leagues reputation. Lecce's matches this season were all overs and only once there was less than four goals. 24 goals for or against them in five matches are really big number. Also, Modena had two unders in last two games, both times with 3 goals. Both teams didn't had the best start into the season, winning only once in first three rounds, so now, after international break i hope they regained some energy and that they will try to bounce back after poor start.