Best Bet Of The Day - Sat 5th September

[mowgli77]

Art Connoisseur 3.30 Haydock (EACH WAY) Looking through the race I noticed a lot of these runners like to be held up, including likely favourite High Standing. The same applies to this horse and Hayley Turner will be hoping to be challenging Kieren Fallon at the business end of the race, she has already beaten him on his first ride back on the all weather and can follow his mount as he is a very good judge of pace in a race and they are drawn 6 and 8. It has had 4 races this season, won one and unplaced in 3 but all 3 of those have had very valid reasons for the poor finishing positions. It was 7th to Ouqba on its seasonal debut but got no sort of run 1f out and was eased down, the distance it lost by is a bit misleading. That race was over 7f and the horse pulled hard and did not settle for Jamie Spencer. He had ridden the horse every time and won 3 times on it at the start of its career. I also belive the horse had some kind of injury too. Queally took over in the saddle for the next race and won the Gp1 Golden Jubilee Stakes at Ascot, both JJ The Jet Plane and Kingsgate Native were behind it that day and it earned a rating of 119 and still holds that same rating today. That race was over 6f on gd-fm, the horse settled and came late with a powerful run to win by a neck. Spencer was back in the saddle for the ride at Newmarket and gave it an awful ride that day. Racing had clearly suited those racing prominently and up with the pace that day, Spencer had the horse anchored at the back of the field and it was never in with a chance, when it finally started its run the others had flown so Spencer eased it down to lose by 20 lengths which was again misleading. Hayley Turner took over last time out at York over 5f but the race was soon over when the saddle slipped and you really have to forget any race where that happens, it would be like an F1 driver trying to win with a puncture. She also takes the ride today and will be hoping for no more slip ups like last time out. The horse seems to need fast ground but won its first 3 races of its career on soft, good and good to firm. Its last win at Ascot was on good to firm but if this ground is not too slow I think it will have a real chance and the odds of 28-1 (1/4 odds) and 33-1 (1/5 odds) are way too high for a Gp1 winner that is suited by 6f, drawn well and should go on good ground. It will obviously need luck in running if delivered late and could be much better than given credit for, unlucky losers can be costly to follow but it was more of a poorly ridden loser than a horse not getting the gaps. I'm glad it has been written off as the odds do not reflect its chances of winning, if it finishes 1st they will talk about a shock big priced winner but it will be no shock to anyone that has reviewed the form/performance of the horse. I feel it should be nearer half the odds at around 12-1/14-1 so will go each way on it.

[Irishbugger]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sat 5th September 4.05 Haydock 'Kaptain Kirkup' Think Mr Fallon might have to wait for this guy to give him that 1st winner. Had an awful run last time out and still managed to win, with a clear passage no reason why won't repeat that in this race. So with a capable pilot :) has to go close.