ValueFinder Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 Hi guys, been sharing advice with the guys in the other corner thread and they suggested I start my own and I've decided to give it a go. Basically, I've been involved in the sports betting/poker industry in 1 form or another for a good few years now. Currently I am an affiliate for a lot of the major sportsbooks, run a tipping website and earn small but sufficient amount on average per month, through my own personal betting. The reason I say small but sufficient is because I'm not a heavy hitter, with my average stake(single) being about 30 quid. Money is not what drives me; what drives me is pitting my wits against the so called 'experts' and coming out on top, year in, year out (so far so good, lets hope it continues!), so just earning enough to get by will suffice. OK, so having been doing it a few years, as mentioned, you soon realise what markets are best for you, and seriously stand out markets for me are the corner markets - the over/unders and the handicaps. Often I will buy a spread rather than back the overs but in this thread I'll keep it simple so eliminate spreads. I've done in-depth study in these markets over the last few years and each year has resulted in a good yield % and a tidy profit and I'd like to share my tips. In my research I've recorded all sorts of corner count stats and noted particular patterns etc. and then looked in-depth into why these patterns may occur. It isn't coincidence, there are many many factors which influence the likely outcome of the corner counts in games such as: 1. Pitch Dimensions - I put this as my no. 1 as not many people (including odds compilers) even take this into consideration and it cannot be underestimated. Basically, the shorter and wider the pitch, the more likely you are to have corners and the opposite is true for the unders. 2. Manager's style of play - does he focus his attack down the flanks ala steve Coppell? 3. Wingers and attacking fullbacks - Where do corners mostly stem from? the answer is these 2. If you have players like Stephen Hunt or Nickey shorey in your team, you're going to get corners. 4. Intensity - Is the game going to be a stroll in the sun or an all out assault on a foreign team's goal in a home CL match? While these might seem obvious to a few, you'd be surprised at the amount of people that take no notice of them at all. There are many more factors........ So, from my studies and stats analysation, I'm able to peg games that are(IMO) 70%+ likely to return a winning selection whether I back the overs/unders or the handicap and AFTER I peg these games, I go looking for the line and the price I want. I always allow myself a small % margin for error. I look for prices usually between 4/5 and 6/5 (the odd time I will make exceptions) and then stake according to my probability estimations(usually between 2.5pts and 4.5pts) August results so far This adds up to a 7.9pts profit so far (using £10 as a 1pt stake) and a yield(ROI%) of 29% I will carry on from here using the pts staking system and a starting bank of 100pts which means the current bank is at 107.9pts. I will post what I see as standout selections, the price, the strength(The likely win exp% IMO) and the stake, in this thread whenever I see games that fall into the category, and I will update results monthly. Wish me luck;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 24, 2009 Author Share Posted August 24, 2009 Re: VF's Corner Betting Thread Let's kick things off tonight: 1. LFC vs Villa over 11 corners @ 10/11(stanjames) Strength - 70% stake - 2.5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 Re: VF's Corner Betting Thread :ok Wishing you continued success with this VF :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Re: VF's Corner Betting Thread good luck buddy. do these stats help you? 2007/8 corner stats + pitch dimensions length width corners Reading Madjeski Stadium 111 76 238 Bolton Wanderers Reebok Stadium 110 72 235 West Ham United Boleyn Ground 110 70 230 Fulham Craven Cottage 110 75 227 Tottenham Hotspur White Hart Lane 110 73 224 Newcastle United St. James’s Park 110 73 221 Middlesbrough Riverside 114 75 220 Everton Goodison Park 112 78 217 Aston Villa Villa Park 114 75 214 Birmingham City St. Andrews 110 74 210 Portsmouth Fratton Park 115 73 209 Arsenal Emirates Stadium 114 74 208 Chelsea Stamford Bridge 110 75 206 Sunderland Stadium of Light 114 74 206 Blackburn Rovers Ewood Park 115 76 199 Manchester City City of Manchester Stadium 116 77 194 Wigan Athletic JJB Stadium 114 74 191 Manchester United Old Trafford 116 76 190 Liverpool Anfield 110 75 183 Derby County Pride Park 114 74 180 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Re: VF's Corner Betting Thread i looked at width/length ratios etc but couldn't see much in this one. i also had a quick look at the Chi-squared value of the expected number of corners against the observed number but didn't find anything statistically significant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 27, 2009 Author Share Posted August 27, 2009 Re: VF's Corner Betting Thread Cheers for that mate. If you look at it, it backs up what I was saying, all the teams towards the top of that list are the teams with the short (110yards) and pretty wide pitches. In fact I was very annoyed when both Reading and Newcastle went down as they were 2 of my biggest winners on the overs market(corners). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 27, 2009 Author Share Posted August 27, 2009 Re: VF's Corner Betting Thread Logic tells you a wider pitch makes it easy for the attackers to get in behind(which is the way most corners are won). I'm not a big stato, I think they are overrated and it's because the bookmakers are so focused on stats that they can be exploited by people who know their stuff :) Obviously stats help but I never over rely on them. Eg. If a player scores a goal once ever 150 minutes, the compiler might price him up on that and not take into consideration that in this particular match he is likely to get far more chances than in other games, there fore if he played this particular match 100 times, his scoring record would actually be closer to 1 every 90 mins... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 27, 2009 Author Share Posted August 27, 2009 Re: VF's Corner Betting Thread In your example above, you're not taking the quality/setup/style of play of the teams into consideration, therefore the stats can lie. It's the same for every market and it's why even the best "stato's" out there can be raped by professionals like me! ;) anyway, stay tuned for my selections and then give them the once over with your system and if it looks good to you, go with it.... Incidentally, there are a few matches I have my eye on this week in the corner market. Have my lines and prices in mind and now just waiting till they are priced up by the bookies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aerobic Posted August 30, 2009 Share Posted August 30, 2009 Re: VF's Corner Betting Thread ValueFinder, which sites do you use to find out formation and style of play? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 30, 2009 Share Posted August 30, 2009 Re: VF's Corner Betting Thread i don't think VF's coming back mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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