VF's Corner Betting Thread

[ValueFinder]

Hi guys, been sharing advice with the guys in the other corner thread and they suggested I start my own and I've decided to give it a go. Basically, I've been involved in the sports betting/poker industry in 1 form or another for a good few years now. Currently I am an affiliate for a lot of the major sportsbooks, run a tipping website and earn small but sufficient amount on average per month, through my own personal betting. The reason I say small but sufficient is because I'm not a heavy hitter, with my average stake(single) being about 30 quid. Money is not what drives me; what drives me is pitting my wits against the so called 'experts' and coming out on top, year in, year out (so far so good, lets hope it continues!), so just earning enough to get by will suffice. OK, so having been doing it a few years, as mentioned, you soon realise what markets are best for you, and seriously stand out markets for me are the corner markets - the over/unders and the handicaps. Often I will buy a spread rather than back the overs but in this thread I'll keep it simple so eliminate spreads. I've done in-depth study in these markets over the last few years and each year has resulted in a good yield % and a tidy profit and I'd like to share my tips. In my research I've recorded all sorts of corner count stats and noted particular patterns etc. and then looked in-depth into why these patterns may occur. It isn't coincidence, there are many many factors which influence the likely outcome of the corner counts in games such as: 1. Pitch Dimensions - I put this as my no. 1 as not many people (including odds compilers) even take this into consideration and it cannot be underestimated. Basically, the shorter and wider the pitch, the more likely you are to have corners and the opposite is true for the unders. 2. Manager's style of play - does he focus his attack down the flanks ala steve Coppell? 3. Wingers and attacking fullbacks - Where do corners mostly stem from? the answer is these 2. If you have players like Stephen Hunt or Nickey shorey in your team, you're going to get corners. 4. Intensity - Is the game going to be a stroll in the sun or an all out assault on a foreign team's goal in a home CL match? While these might seem obvious to a few, you'd be surprised at the amount of people that take no notice of them at all. There are many more factors........ So, from my studies and stats analysation, I'm able to peg games that are(IMO) 70%+ likely to return a winning selection whether I back the overs/unders or the handicap and AFTER I peg these games, I go looking for the line and the price I want. I always allow myself a small % margin for error. I look for prices usually between 4/5 and 6/5 (the odd time I will make exceptions) and then stake according to my probability estimations(usually between 2.5pts and 4.5pts) August results so far This adds up to a 7.9pts profit so far (using £10 as a 1pt stake) and a yield(ROI%) of 29% I will carry on from here using the pts staking system and a starting bank of 100pts which means the current bank is at 107.9pts. I will post what I see as standout selections, the price, the strength(The likely win exp% IMO) and the stake, in this thread whenever I see games that fall into the category, and I will update results monthly. Wish me luck;)

[ValueFinder]

Re: VF's Corner Betting Thread Let's kick things off tonight: 1. LFC vs Villa over 11 corners @ 10/11(stanjames) Strength - 70% stake - 2.5pts