jl294 Posted August 23, 2009 Share Posted August 23, 2009 Basically, I've paper tested this system for past 2 seasons (using football-data.co.uk) on strong home teams. My results have given me back an average of £195 starting from £100. Therefore £95 profit. I've used 5 teams. Celtic, Barcalona, Man Utd, Inter Milan and Olmpiakos. I bet £10 on each team playing at home. If one loses, I change it to £20. If they lose again, I change to £30 etc.. When they win, they go back to £10. These teams on the whole win at least 75% of their home games. Its a good system, which perhaps could be adjusted to get maximum profit. Maybe a change in the staking system? The teams selected could be varied aswell. (Celtic and Olypmiakos not mujch profit). What do you guys think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted August 23, 2009 Share Posted August 23, 2009 Re: Home Favourites System Welcome to PL For starters, remove the loss chasing. Level stakes is the way to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justbetter Posted August 23, 2009 Share Posted August 23, 2009 Re: Home Favourites System Won't work long run, sorry Blindly betting on certain big teams will not yield a profit over time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justbetter Posted August 23, 2009 Share Posted August 23, 2009 Re: Home Favourites System But good luck anyway and welcome to PL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 23, 2009 Share Posted August 23, 2009 Re: Home Favourites System Welcome to PL For starters, remove the loss chasing. Level stakes is the way to go Not in that system it wouldn't be. His system is sort of an altered Martingale system and is fine once he has the bankroll to cover a bad run (which is inevitable due to the laws of probability). To the original poster: Take note of my point in the last paragraph. I'm not ashort odds backer myself but this could be profitable for you if you know what you're doing. A couple of things you could alter (and really need to for longterm profit) that would help: 1. Make your shortlist up of 10 teams rather than 5 and pick the strongest of those each individual week to give yourself a bit of lee way. 2. Also, you may want to substitute teams like UTD and Celtic with less obvious teams who are really strong at home to get bigger value(There are a lot out there if you do your study, believe me) Last season for instance, if you had Sivasspor and Wolfsburg in your system, you'd have made a small fortune. You see the compilers know what they are doing with teams like UTD and Celtic and the odds are made to cover all sorts of systems, therefore are far more stingy than they should be. On the other hand, they are generally quite clueless when it comes to the 'lesser' leagues/teams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 23, 2009 Share Posted August 23, 2009 Re: Home Favourites System Also mate, you'd need to make sure that each time your team lost, that the odds on them for the next match (with a doubled stake) would rturn more than the sum of your stakes... In short, you can make this work, but you'd need to be really good, both in the mathematical side of things and in terms of knowing your football(not just stats but really know you teams) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jl294 Posted August 23, 2009 Author Share Posted August 23, 2009 Re: Home Favourites System The system is from http://www.fourthewinfootball.com/results.htm Level stakes is really not the way to go for this. Perhaps yea having 10 teams and choosing the top 5 at the time could be better though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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