AFL Round 18

[ozgamer]

Okay. Gravy train awaits. ROO 4.00 CAR 1.25 --- +/-25.5 --- Etihad ---- Fri, 31 Jul WB 1.02 FRE 14.00 --- -/+53.5 --- Etihad ---- Sat, 1 Aug GEE 1.20 ADE 4.60 --- -/+27.5 --- Skilled --- Sat, 1 Aug SYD 6.70 STK 1.11 --- +/-38.5 --- SCG ------- Sat, 1 Aug COL 1.33 BL 3.35 --- -/+19.5 ---- MCG ------- Sat, 1 Aug MEL 3.55 RIC 1.30 --- +/-21.5 --- MCG ------- Sun, 2 Aug POR 2.60 HAW 1.50 --- +/-12.5 --- AAMI ------ Sun, 2 Aug WCE 3.17 ESS 1.36 --- +/-18.5 --- Subiaco --- Sun, 2 Aug Hmmm ... Blues & Doggies should win easy but lines are a bit big for each. Adam Simpson gets a send-off game but not sure how Nth will turn up for that. They tried hard in his 300th vs Adelaide R12 but were too poor to score given the wet conditions. ? on Judd probably but they won w/o him last year I think. Adelaide at the line should be considered (28.5->27.5 already) as Geelong will be under-manned defensively but they should get S Johnson back in their fwd line. ? on post-Showdown letdown but Geelong have come off a tough game themselves albeit a day earlier. Can't see Geelong doing a Saints job on the Crows. Crows @ +27.5 $1.91 Saints to win easy. Line is terribly high but deservedly so. Taking on the Saints atm isn't wise even tho this will be a low scorer. Pies are short. Brisbane's fwd line got towelled up last time these teams met so it will be interesting to see what they come up with this time - Brown won't get his own way. That being said, Pies have been reliant on their smalls to get their goals of late. Cloke is still short of his best and Anthony is clearly struggling. Brisbane smalls will need to match the Pies on the scoreboard. They have scored 100+ once in all their i/s games. Will need to be on top of their defence to keep it close. Richmond 1.30!?!!?? No way! This is a serious over-reaction (these are similar odds that were earlier in the year). Against the Bombers they were good but not THAT good. Melb with their named team held their own against the Swans and should've won it had they kicked straighter (and please drop Miller). Melb at the line at the MCG is definitely the sensible bet here and I would not be surprised if they won. Melb @ +21.5 $1.91 The value is with Port @ home but Hawks are playing well of late and they really should've beaten Geelong BUT ... Port generally match up well on the Hawks and have a great record against them. They will be worth a go at the line here but not if Brogan doesn't play. Wait on the teams. Bombers $1.36 @ Subi?? Another over-reaction here. Eagles won this meet last year at similar odds ... AFTER THE DERBY. No Lloyd and ? on Watson and McVeigh. Bombers will be switched on this time but so should the Eagles. As dogs @ home, Eagles are 3/6 SU and 6/6 at the line. Integrity aside, the + line is the better bet here and I won't bother to wait for the teams either as the Eagles will go for the near-win ;) Eagles @ +18.5 $1.91 :beer

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 18 Nice write-up Oz. Only thing I will say, I wouldn't be touching Melbourne nor Eagles - both tanking candidates. Spot on about the Crows. Ran the Cats close earlier in the year (albeit in Adelaide) and with the Cats set to miss Taylor and Scarlett, worth a punt at the line. Now to the Pies. Whats the saying 'Pies lose the games they should win' and reckon it applies to this case. Both Carlton and Collingwood played one of the poorest games last week (Friday night spectacular - blah). Pies got smashed the week before and I'm not convinced by them. No Bradshaw hurts the Lions so again, so the Lions @ the line looks like the go.