Just 4% profit after 66 games in my research about under - over in basketball

[sjuesju]

I am starting a quick research about few different strategies about betting on under or over at basketball games. I will use WNBA because it is only one major championship where matches are on right now. Few words about those different strategies: the first one I have used before in NBA last regular season. I follow the under – over stats for every team and when the match is going to be played I just take a look to numbers. For example Washington and Atlanta will play tonight – Washington has 50-50 until now and Atlanta has 30-70 under – over percentage. So, I will bet over here. The other way of betting is similar, but a bit more difficult. The principal is the same, but the way of collecting the data is different. For every team I make different sectors divided by the border given by the bookie for under or over. Then I checked the previous matches for this particular team for that particular border and compare the percentage between both teams on that border and bet for under or over with greater percentage. The third way I will check to the rest of the season is far more difficult. I read in the forum about using Gauss’ least squares approximate principal for betting. It was about football, but I think it’s best to put it into practice with under – over betting. So I chose to use it here. For data I will use the last ten matches for every team – so 20 games. The same method will be used for my fourth hypothesis, but the difference again will be of the way I collected data. Here I will use the last 10 mutual games between the teams. I will check another two ways of making tips, but they are far less effective I think. I will check them only because it is easy to collect data. I will check the last 10 matches for every team and I will calculate the average scores so it will be mine point to guess will the match be under or over. Finally, the same method will be made, but with data collected from the last 10 mutual games between the teams. http://betsurf.org/wordpress/2009/07/research-about-basketball-under-over-betting/

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball A note here. I will start researching when I find a match where both teams have played at least 10 games. There is no matches like that today.

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball Today comes the first match where both teams have played 10 games at least. This match is Sacramento - Chicago. I must say this is a paper trial of 6 methods for making picks. I do not know what win's percentage I will achieve, but I think it will be interesting. Here are the picks:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
Sacramento - Chicago	147.5	O	O	148	159	153.6	147.5

It is easy to be seen all methods give over for this match. A quick note about columns. Match is clear. Bk L is the line given by the bookie. Of course we all know, that this line is bookie prediction, which will lead to 50-50 spread of bets for over and under and it will move up or down in the next few hours, depends of the bets. % L is a prediction made by the matches both teams have played so far, where I simply take a look how many games have finished over and under for both teams and which line is most this will be the bet. %i L is the same but in exact matches of the teams where they have played a match, where the bookie have offered a line between 146 and 150 points. G L is a prediction made by Gauss' method for least squares approximation taken from last 10 matches for every team. Gm L is the same, but the data is different - their last 7 meetings. The other two are their average points, taken from the data above. Again, this is just a trial. I do not know would it be succesful at all.

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball Sacramento and Chicago finished Over as expected. Here are the stats for todays match:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
Chicago - Phoenix	179	O	O	171.5	198	166.5	175

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball Today's matches:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
Minnesota - San Antonio	156.5	O	U	158.5	148	154	151
Indiana - Chicago	140.5	O	U	145.5	132	148	139

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball Here are the results from the first 4th matches I have looked for. I am sorry I will present the data a bit different from the rules, but I hope it will not be a problem. It would be too difficult to present it in a common way. Nevertheless, the odds are always 1.91, so all math will be easy. So, after 4 matches (in the brakes are the winners):

% L +	%i L +	G L +	Gm L +	Avg. L +	Avg.m L +
1	3	2	3	3	4

It is easy to see that average points of last 10 mutual games are 100% correct by now. I've got other 3 which are on 75% and other which are not so good.

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball The matches for today:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
LA - Washington	145,5	U	U	158,5	141,5	152,3	156,5
Atlanta - New York	149	O	O	141,5	171,5	151	161,5
Phoenix - Sacramento	173	O	U	144,5	190	166	169

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball MAtches for 12.07

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
Minnesota - San Antonio	152	O	O	146.5	142.5	152.5	150
Chicago - Seattle	139.5	U	U	141	127.5	149	139

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball Results after 9 games. Unfortunately the stats shows around 50% winners.

% L +	%i L +	G L +	Gm L +	Avg. L +	Avg.m L +
4	5	4	5	4	4

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball Only one match today:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
LA - Connecticut	142	U	U	151.5	169.5	144	155.1

[sjuesju]

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball Today's matches:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
Atlanta - Indiana	151.5	O	U	141	166	150.5	157
Connecticut - San Antonio	142.5	U	U	152.5	143	147.5	142
Seattle - Sacramento	140.5	U	U	159	131	147.5	144.5

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball Two matches tonight:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
New York - Washington	143	U	U	144.5	139.5	150	149.5
Detroit - Phoenix	173	O	U	178	171.5	166	176.5

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball 18 matches have been played since I started this research. Here are the stats in percentages:

% L +	%i L +	G L +	Gm L +	Avg. L +	Avg.m L +
61.1	50	33.3	61.1	38.8	44.4

We all know the odds here are 1.91, so everything above 52.5% is profit. Right now only two methods give profit. The one that the punter look at previous matches of both teams in the season and the bet under or over depends on how many under and over both teams have made. The secon method is with using Gauss least square approximate method with last ten mutual matches between the teams. The profit in both methods is 16.7%

[sjuesju]

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball One match today:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
Indiana - Washington	143.5	U	U	146	115.5	148	133

[sjuesju]

[sjuesju]

Re: My research about under - over in basketball The last match for tonight:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
LA - Seattle	138	U	O	137	128	144.5	134.5

[sjuesju]

Re: 17% profit after 31 games in my research about under - over in basketball Stats after 31 games:

% L +

%i L +

G L +

Gm L +

Avg. L +

Avg.m L +

61.3	54.8	41.9	58	45.1	38.7
117	104.7	80.1	110.9	86.258	73.9355

The first line are methods I use for research. They are explaind above. The second line are winning percentages and the third line shows ROI after those 31 matches. Just a mark here. I used to bet on NBA matches with the first method and I think it can not be used, because the bookies always want to keep under -over ratings to 50-50 for all teams combine. Of course there are teams that will finish with f.e. 61-39 under - over, but the combined result is 50-50.

[sjuesju]

Re: 17% profit after 31 games in my research about under - over in basketball Today's matches:

Match

Bk L

% L

%i L

G L

Gm L

Avg. L

Avg.m L

Indiana - San Antonio	141.5	O	U	147.5	120	146.5	127.5
Chicago - Washington	157	O	U	154	131	152.5	148
Sacramento - New York	140.5	U	U	148.5	141.5	149	130.5

[sjuesju]

Re: 17% profit after 31 games in my research about under - over in basketball Today's four matches:

Match

Bk L

% L

%i L

G L

Gm L

Avg. L

Avg.m L

Washington - Indiana	145.5	O	O	150	128.5	147	133
Phoenix - Connecticut	176.5	O	O	165	195	165	161
Seattle - San Antonio	138.5	U	O	154	142	144.5	148
LA - Minnesota	151	O	O	166.5	156.5	155	161

[sjuesju]

Re: 17% profit after 31 games in my research about under - over in basketball Just one match today:

Match

Bk L

% L

%i L

G L

Gm L

Avg. L

Avg.m L

LA - Chicago

144.5

O

O

155

163

151.5

143

[sjuesju]

Re: 17% profit after 31 games in my research about under - over in basketball Today's four matches:

Match

Bk L

% L

%i L

G L

Gm L

Avg. L

Avg.m L

Sacramento - San Antonio	145	O	O	154.5	142.5	151	146
Connecticut - Indiana	143.5	U	U	159.5	135.5	147	146
Washington - New York	147.5	U	O	158	135.5	150.5	147
Phoenix - Atlanta	187.5	O	O	177.5	160	171.5	185

[sjuesju]

Re: 17% profit after 31 games in my research about under - over in basketball One match today:

Match

Bk L

% L

%i L

G L

Gm L

Avg. L

Avg.m L

Minnesota - Detroit

158.5

O

U

159

182.5

163

152.5

[sjuesju]

[sjuesju]

Re: 17% profit after 31 games in my research about under - over in basketball Today's matches:

Match

Bk L

% L

%i L

G L

Gm L

Avg. L

Avg.m L

Indiana - Washington	150	O	O	162	143	151.5	135.5
Connecticut - Detroit	149	O	U	164	166	160.5	156

[sjuesju]

Re: 17% profit after 31 games in my research about under - over in basketball Today's matches:

Match

Bk L

% L

%i L

G L

Gm L

Avg. L

Avg.m L

LA - San Antonio	141.5	U	U	158	139.5	150	141
New York - Detroit	149	O	U	169	130	158.5	136
Phoenix - Seattle	172	O	O	161	167	164.5	177

[sjuesju]

Re: 17% profit after 31 games in my research about under - over in basketball One match today:

Match

Bk L

% L

%i L

G L

Gm L

Avg. L

Avg.m L

Chicago - Indiana

152

O

O

155

136

153.5

142

[sjuesju]

Re: 17% profit after 31 games in my research about under - over in basketball Two matches for today:

Match

Bk L

% L

%i L

G L

Gm L

Avg. L

Avg.m L

Atlanta - San Antonio	157	O	O	171	163	156.5	152
Seattle - LA	135	U	O	152	146.5	147	140

[sjuesju]

Re: 17% profit after 31 games in my research about under - over in basketball Todays matches:

Match

Bk L

% L

%i L

G L

Gm L

Avg. L

Avg.m L

Detroit - Washington	154	O	O	155.5	147	157.5	145.5
Connecticut - Minnesota	157	O	U	165	160	156.5	140
New York - Sacramento	146	O	U	159	151	155	135