Idea for next football season

[Looterman]

I noticed that in the season just gone Liverpool didn't lose a league game at home, same with Inter Milan, Man Utd lost just 1 at home and Barcelona only lost 2 at home. I was thinking of laying the opposing team next season when all these are playing at home. I'm new to Betfair, what kind of BR would I need if I wanted to win £200-£300 a week?

[aliando]

Re: Idea for next football season what kind of guarantee do you have that you can pick a team tht will have a similar record over the season? teams with expected good home records will show odds reflective of this. To be winning that kind of money on lays, you will need plenty of cash behind you. 1 loss = a major hit to your wallet.

[beuher2000]

Re: Idea for next football season For example odds for Man Utd/Aston Villa were 1.44 4.33 9.55 Hence in this example you have to lay at odds of 9.55 let' s say 10 for simplicity So if you wanna win n $ on this match you have to risk 9n $ there are 19 home matchs for Man Utd so if all odds are 10 you 'd win 18n-9n=9n during the season for one loss 17n-18n=-n during the season for two losses 16n-27n=-11n during the season for three losses etc moreover the odds may be bigger sometimes and you could lose more. Hence you see that this is very risky betting system cause if your team loses more than once you will be in negative... Even if you do a martingale: after a loss you have to recover 9n hence you have to risk 81n so imagine if the two losses at home are consecutive if n is big enough you won't be able to make that "recover" bet. Remember odds are good predictors and only way to make money is luck or by finding value bets (mispriced bets). No simple strategy can produce long term profits....