GaF Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 This is the hand that damaged me severely tonight in the Betfair $18k gtd. Dont know if I was right or wrong to play it the way I did :unsure "circus" was playing very loose and constantly raising and reraising (often pretty small bets, but enough to build pots) His stats are 55/24 (VPIP/PFR). (I'm playing 28/23) His post flop AF is 8.7 (My post flop AF is 3) Courteny is more solid - playing 14/8 ***** Hand History for Game 535342654 ***** (Betfair) $15000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, June 13, 08:26:29 ET 2009 Table 18000 Guaranteed NL Holdem 252330 (Real Money) Seat 5 is the button Seat 1: Mr. Watt ( $3287.50 USD ) Seat 2: Telepe ( $4916.25 USD ) Seat 3: BLACK RAIN ( $4190.00 USD ) Seat 4: circus ( $3885.00 USD ) Seat 5: Huddster ( $1413.75 USD ) Seat 6: courteney1 ( $2706.25 USD ) Seat 7: Shaddy Yoz ( $6842.50 USD ) Seat 8: TheCrawler ( $1757.50 USD ) Seat 9: MrHankey ( $1900.00 USD ) courteney1 posts small blind [$75.00 USD]. Shaddy Yoz posts big blind [$150.00 USD]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Telepe [ :Qs: :Ts: ] TheCrawler folds MrHankey folds Mr. Watt folds Telepe raises [$450.00 USD] BLACK RAIN folds circus calls [$450.00 USD] Huddster folds courteney1 calls [$375.00 USD] Shaddy Yoz folds ** Dealing Flop ** [ :Kc:, :7h:, :Js: ] courteney1 checks Telepe ???? How do I play this? circus could have literally any two cards - I've seen him showdown hands like 45o after betting into the pot. If I check, I know the bet is coming. If I raise, then the min reraise is probably coming. I dont respect his bets, and I know he'll bet whatever he has..... but he can fold to a reraise. Here's a hand we played earlier.... ***** Hand History for Game 535326911 ***** (Betfair) $5000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, June 13, 07:53:10 ET 2009 Table 18000 Guaranteed NL Holdem 252330 (Real Money) Seat 2 is the button Seat 1: Mr. Watt ( $2693.75 USD ) Seat 2: Telepe ( $2353.75 USD ) Seat 3: goyring ( $2090.00 USD ) Seat 4: circus ( $5363.75 USD ) Seat 5: Huddster ( $2201.25 USD ) Seat 6: courteney1 ( $2331.25 USD ) Seat 7: Shaddy Yoz ( $7007.50 USD ) Seat 8: TheCrawler ( $2082.50 USD ) Seat 9: MrHankey ( $1731.25 USD ) goyring posts small blind [$25.00 USD]. circus posts big blind [$50.00 USD]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Telepe [ :8c: :Ac: ] Huddster folds courteney1 folds Shaddy Yoz folds TheCrawler folds MrHankey raises [$131.25 USD] Mr. Watt folds Telepe calls [$131.25 USD] goyring folds circus calls [$81.25 USD] ** Dealing Flop ** [ :Kh:, :6s:, :8h: ] circus checks MrHankey checks Telepe bets [$280.00 USD] circus raises [$560.00 USD] MrHankey folds Telepe raises [$1942.50 USD] circus folds Telepe wins $1662.50 USD Telepe wins $1538.75 USD from main pot I wouldnt have gone over the top of anyone else on the table like that. How worried should I be about courteney? To be honest I was so focused on circus, I didnt give courtney much consideration. He's pretty solid and has called a raise and a call from out of position, so he's not empty - but he's checked to me, so he's shown no strength. I havent seen any 3bets from him at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dai Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Re: Flopped up and down straight draw against ultra LAG I personally would check. You have the (slim) chance that he will also check, giving you a free card. You also find out where the other guy is at, too. This would give these scenarios: 1 - circus bets, courtney calls. Gives you the right price to just call as well. 2 - circus bets, courtney raises. His position is perfect for a check raise if he has a big hand. Easy laydown for you. 3 - circus bets, courtney folds. This is the likely scenario for you by the sounds of it. Tricky spot. You could just call, or you could raise. You were the original raiser, so I think he would fold to a check raise here, also taking into consideration the size of the blinds and stacks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted June 14, 2009 Author Share Posted June 14, 2009 Re: Flopped up and down straight draw against ultra LAG I did indeed check, expecting circus to bet and thinking courtney would fold and that I'd then reraise all in. That was the plan. So I checked, circus did indeed raise, but bigger than I expected ($1125 into $1500 pot) and more than he had been. That threw me a bit. Courtney folded. Back to me. My only options now are all in or fold? Do I follow through the original plan? A shove here would be for an effective 2310. He would need to pay 2310 against the pot of 6060. He'll get just a bit better than 5-2 for his money, so can probably call quite wide? ***** Hand History for Game 535342654 ***** (Betfair) $15000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, June 13, 08:26:29 ET 2009 Table 18000 Guaranteed NL Holdem 252330 (Real Money) Seat 5 is the button Seat 1: Mr. Watt ( $3287.50 USD ) Seat 2: Telepe ( $4916.25 USD ) Seat 3: BLACK RAIN ( $4190.00 USD ) Seat 4: circus ( $3885.00 USD ) Seat 5: Huddster ( $1413.75 USD ) Seat 6: courteney1 ( $2706.25 USD ) Seat 7: Shaddy Yoz ( $6842.50 USD ) Seat 8: TheCrawler ( $1757.50 USD ) Seat 9: MrHankey ( $1900.00 USD ) courteney1 posts small blind [$75.00 USD]. Shaddy Yoz posts big blind [$150.00 USD]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Telepe [ :Qs: :Ts: ] TheCrawler folds MrHankey folds Mr. Watt folds Telepe raises [$450.00 USD] BLACK RAIN folds circus calls [$450.00 USD] Huddster folds courteney1 calls [$375.00 USD] Shaddy Yoz folds ** Dealing Flop ** [ :Kc:, :7h:, :Js: ] courteney1 checks Telepe checks circus bets [$1125.00 USD] courteney1 folds Telepe ??????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dai Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 Re: Flopped up and down straight draw against ultra LAG Its a tricky spot for sure. I personally would lay it down, due to the fact you dont have much invested, and then would look for a better spot against him in the future. That said, cases can be made for a call, shove or a fold here. AK is not in his range, judging from what youve said about him. KJ certainly is. Pocket 7s maybe. AJ. Q10 also. If the bet was noticably bigger than it usually is, then that would sound alarm bells for me, and make me fold. You could go all in, but the only thing you beat is air. Even a weak jack is still ahead of you. If he calls, youre something like a 30% dog in pretty much every scenario. With the amount invested, its probably not worth gambling with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted June 15, 2009 Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Flopped up and down straight draw against ultra LAG Its a tricky spot for sure. I personally would lay it down, due to the fact you dont have much invested, and then would look for a better spot against him in the future. That said, cases can be made for a call, shove or a fold here. AK is not in his range, judging from what youve said about him. KJ certainly is. Pocket 7s maybe. AJ. Q10 also. If the bet was noticably bigger than it usually is, then that would sound alarm bells for me, and make me fold. You could go all in, but the only thing you beat is air. Even a weak jack is still ahead of you. If he calls, youre something like a 30% dog in pretty much every scenario. With the amount invested, its probably not worth gambling with. Judging by the way he played the other hand, it is clear he could very well be sitting with anything. He could also be drawing to some straights, holding Q10, A10, 9 10, Q9. Then you have to think he has paired up either the 7,J or K, or even made a couple of pairs or a set. They key thing for me here, is not the fact that he is raising into the pot, as he is doing that every hand anyway, it is the fact that he is doing it in a different manner this hand, in a seemingly more confident manner. Makes me think he is sitting on something, even if it is only A7, pairing up the 7 with strong kicker or a weak Jack. Either way, to me it looks like he is ahead at this point in time and therefore I would be folding leaving myself with a fair amount of chips left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted June 15, 2009 Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Flopped up and down straight draw against ultra LAG you know he's going to call your bet, so no reason to factor fold equity into it. Put him on a range (atc??) work out the pot odds and push if it's plus EV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted June 15, 2009 Author Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Flopped up and down straight draw against ultra LAG you know he's going to call your bet, so no reason to factor fold equity into it. Put him on a range (atc??) work out the pot odds and push if it's plus EV. If we put him on literally atc (wishful thinking ;)) then I'm a 62%v38% favourite. If we put him on a hand that is beating me at the moment, but which loses if I hit my straight - something like :Kd: :5h: then I'm 37% v his 63%. If we put him on a bottom pair type hand (where my Q and T are outs too) like :7d: :5h: then I'm a 53% v 46% favourite. Split the difference of those two hands and say that I'm about a 45% shot against his range? Add in some fold equity (sorry, I dont accept there are hands he wont fold here. He could have total air!). With fold equity I'm thinking I can count on 50% win equity? If we accept that (rightly or wrongly) I have 50% win equity if I shove now, then it's an easy shove isnt it? I suppose the really troubling part of all this is the thought that his bet size now isnt consistent with what it was before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted June 15, 2009 Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Flopped up and down straight draw against ultra LAG If we accept that (rightly or wrongly) I have 50% win equity if I shove now, then it's an easy shove isnt it? I suppose the really troubling part of all this is the thought that his bet size now isnt consistent with what it was before. Yes it is and I assume you did :unsure For the 2nd point, he could just be an idiot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted June 15, 2009 Author Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Flopped up and down straight draw against ultra LAG Yes I did shove. He had KTo - so with top pair, he was at the negative end of the range I gave him. I had 34.5% equity - so I was far from drawing dead (though I didnt suck out on him - not that that makes a difference). If we know his specific holding, then we can say that I had no fold equity from shoving. I'm putting in 3435 to win just under 5000. If I could put him on a hand as strong as top pair, then it's an easy fold. I'm still none the wiser as to what I should have done :lol :lol :lol ***** Hand History for Game 535342654 ***** (Betfair) $15000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, June 13, 08:26:29 ET 2009 Table 18000 Guaranteed NL Holdem 252330 (Real Money) Seat 5 is the button Seat 1: Mr. Watt ( $3287.50 USD ) Seat 2: Telepe ( $4916.25 USD ) Seat 3: BLACK RAIN ( $4190.00 USD ) Seat 4: circus ( $3885.00 USD ) Seat 5: Huddster ( $1413.75 USD ) Seat 6: courteney1 ( $2706.25 USD ) Seat 7: Shaddy Yoz ( $6842.50 USD ) Seat 8: TheCrawler ( $1757.50 USD ) Seat 9: MrHankey ( $1900.00 USD ) courteney1 posts small blind [$75.00 USD]. Shaddy Yoz posts big blind [$150.00 USD]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Telepe [ :Qs: :Ts: ] TheCrawler folds MrHankey folds Mr. Watt folds Telepe raises [$450.00 USD] BLACK RAIN folds circus calls [$450.00 USD] Huddster folds courteney1 calls [$375.00 USD] Shaddy Yoz folds ** Dealing Flop ** [ :Kc:, :7h:, :Js: ] courteney1 checks Telepe checks circus bets [$1125.00 USD] courteney1 folds Telepe raises [$4466.25 USD] circus calls [$2310.00 USD] Telepe wins $1031.25 USD Telepe shows [:Qs:, :Ts: ] circus shows [:Kh:, :Td: ] ** Dealing Turn ** [ :3h: ] ** Dealing River ** [ :Jh: ] circus wins $8370.00 USD from main pot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted June 15, 2009 Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Flopped up and down straight draw against ultra LAG Just had a similar hand, i've no clue how I should have played it...:unsure I didn't play it well, I know that much. PokerStars Game #29405969440: Tournament #172076135, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2009/06/15 17:26:39 ET Table '172076135 19' 9-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: mopperkont (1650 in chips) Seat 2: Jappieoo (1580 in chips) Seat 4: LotoRossi (1710 in chips) Seat 5: Conradical99 (1470 in chips) Seat 6: aldricon (1465 in chips) Seat 7: bobber0711 (1670 in chips) Seat 8: alezzkid (1155 in chips) Seat 9: guezman (1380 in chips) bobber0711: posts small blind 15 alezzkid: posts big blind 30 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to aldricon [Ks Qh] guezman: folds mopperkont: folds Jappieoo: folds LotoRossi: raises 30 to 60 Conradical99: folds aldricon: calls 60 bobber0711: calls 45 alezzkid: calls 30 *** FLOP *** [8s Th Jc] bobber0711: bets 120 alezzkid: calls 120 LotoRossi: calls 120 aldricon: calls 120 *** TURN *** [8s Th Jc] [4h] bobber0711: checks alezzkid: bets 180 LotoRossi: calls 180 aldricon: calls 180 KVANE is connected bobber0711: calls 180 *** RIVER *** [8s Th Jc 4h] [Ts] bobber0711: bets 150 alezzkid: raises 450 to 600 LotoRossi: folds aldricon: folds bobber0711: folds Uncalled bet (450) returned to alezzkid alezzkid collected 1740 from pot alezzkid: doesn't show hand *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 1740 | Rake 0 Board [8s Th Jc 4h Ts] Seat 1: mopperkont folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 2: Jappieoo folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: LotoRossi folded on the River Seat 5: Conradical99 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: aldricon (button) folded on the River Seat 7: bobber0711 (small blind) folded on the River Seat 8: alezzkid (big blind) collected (1740) Seat 9: guezman folded before Flop (didn't bet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chatoman Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 Re: Flopped up and down straight draw against ultra LAG I think i would have made the same raise with QTs and probably considered the CheckRaise Allin on the flop. However, after the flop, there was a pretty big raise from the guy and you had 30bb behind, so, if you are patient and with 15 minutes blinds, you can resteal from the ultra lag and gain even more chips than the 450 you lost on that pot. Just my oppinion, but who knows, if i were on your situation i may have done the same thing. Regards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.