Correct Score - Odd probability

[MetallicIan]

Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Hi KThom, Looking at your chart and personally speaking I think that your figures look very good. From the 288 games sample for example, your 0-0's look to have a very high accuracy. I would think that even betting "blind" at odds of 7.38 or above on 0-0's that those predictions would be profitable. It looks like the hit rate for all your predictions down the diagonal are exceptional, as I would expect the average odds for all the corresponding odds to be higher.

[KThom]

Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Hello metalician, thanks for the feedback - appreciated An unexpected problem has occured before I begin. My work pc now blocks this site under the terms "gambling" whereas It didn't yesterday!! Has anything in the site make up changed? Or perhaps an eagle eye in my IT dept? Either way, my only means of posting is via my iPhone - so apologies for any text typos. This also makes it more difficult fir me to upload tables or images Anyway I digress To go live with this system I would indeed be looking to bet on a projected scores actual outcome. For instance a projected 1-0, I would bet on a 1-0 - even though 1-1 shows a greater hit rate. I will therefore be using the diagonal boxed data only As mentioned before I would like to discover a correct way of measuring the accuracy of my sample sizes based on the overall amount of games. I will keep searching the net as I know I have stumbled across this formula somewhere before It will basically tell me how truly accurate 945 selections out of a total (population) of 7794 games is - using 1-1 as the example here. So anyone reading this that can help with this formula I'd be greatful I currently have 4 live leagues in play that I can post selections for over the summer. They are swedish Norwegian Brazilian and Japanese top flight leagues I am reluctant to include any leagues with less than 16 teams as this tends to restrict the parameters I set. I let you know that i know that I know nthing about any of these leagues which means I can't be objective about any of my selections - they will be based on data driven selections I have discover the ansell staking plan on another thread and this is exactly the type of staking formula I have been looking for. It will not allow you to stake on a selection with odds lower than my projections I have to say now that there was a slight errror on the table above as I unintentionally doubled up a few leagues. It doesn't affec the figures greatly and I will post the "true" odds for the selections before hand So befre I start posting selections I need to resolve some factors (not least an Internet acess). 1) I really need to establish a formula that shows how accurate my sample sizes are fir each projected scoreline, and ideally how accurate the odds are within that projection 2) once this is established I can chose which scorelne(s) I want to go live with Hopefully I can calculate my accuracy and start posting selections in time for next weekends games