MetallicIan Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Hi KThom, Looking at your chart and personally speaking I think that your figures look very good. From the 288 games sample for example, your 0-0's look to have a very high accuracy. I would think that even betting "blind" at odds of 7.38 or above on 0-0's that those predictions would be profitable. It looks like the hit rate for all your predictions down the diagonal are exceptional, as I would expect the average odds for all the corresponding odds to be higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 5, 2009 Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Hello metalician, thanks for the feedback - appreciated An unexpected problem has occured before I begin. My work pc now blocks this site under the terms "gambling" whereas It didn't yesterday!! Has anything in the site make up changed? Or perhaps an eagle eye in my IT dept? Either way, my only means of posting is via my iPhone - so apologies for any text typos. This also makes it more difficult fir me to upload tables or images Anyway I digress To go live with this system I would indeed be looking to bet on a projected scores actual outcome. For instance a projected 1-0, I would bet on a 1-0 - even though 1-1 shows a greater hit rate. I will therefore be using the diagonal boxed data only As mentioned before I would like to discover a correct way of measuring the accuracy of my sample sizes based on the overall amount of games. I will keep searching the net as I know I have stumbled across this formula somewhere before It will basically tell me how truly accurate 945 selections out of a total (population) of 7794 games is - using 1-1 as the example here. So anyone reading this that can help with this formula I'd be greatful I currently have 4 live leagues in play that I can post selections for over the summer. They are swedish Norwegian Brazilian and Japanese top flight leagues I am reluctant to include any leagues with less than 16 teams as this tends to restrict the parameters I set. I let you know that i know that I know nthing about any of these leagues which means I can't be objective about any of my selections - they will be based on data driven selections I have discover the ansell staking plan on another thread and this is exactly the type of staking formula I have been looking for. It will not allow you to stake on a selection with odds lower than my projections I have to say now that there was a slight errror on the table above as I unintentionally doubled up a few leagues. It doesn't affec the figures greatly and I will post the "true" odds for the selections before hand So befre I start posting selections I need to resolve some factors (not least an Internet acess). 1) I really need to establish a formula that shows how accurate my sample sizes are fir each projected scoreline, and ideally how accurate the odds are within that projection 2) once this is established I can chose which scorelne(s) I want to go live with Hopefully I can calculate my accuracy and start posting selections in time for next weekends games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 5, 2009 Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Further to my last I have now re-discovered the sampling website. It's www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm#one I now need to try and get my head around what data I need to pump in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 5, 2009 Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Ok, I have managed to log onto a relatives PC - and although it may seem (and it feels) like I am talking to myself I am sure many of you are reading to see what happens when i "go live". Before I do, I would still like clarity over the sample size calculation method, so if anyone can assist with regards to the correct formula(s)?? For now, I have uploaded the new table. At the bottom I have added 2 rows. The first is the odds (as a decimal) based on betting blind on EVERY game for each respective scoreline. Below that odd, is a percentage. This represents the difference between my projected odds, and the actual probability for each scoreline. It shows that 0-0, 0-2 and 3-1 have the greatest difference, so I am thinking about using these 3 scores for the live leagues. There are now games this weekend due to the 4 leagues either being on break or not reaching game 6 stage yet. I will hopefully have selections ready for next weekend, but I really want to get the criteria fixed BEFORE I start posting selections. I have already determined the Ansell staking plan, I just need clarification over the sample size (at the moment I am working with 230 games plus (3.5%). So if anyone is avidly reading, but disagreeing, or has alternate views or comments on my data please feel free to suggest before I attempt to go live. It may well be that I have made a gross oversight, or made an inaccurate calculation. - but for now, I have attached the new table. Here's hoping we can achieve a long term profitable correct scoring system. Patience is most definitely the key because the strike rate will be a lot lower than other "normal" backing systems. I fully expect games and weeks of no winners, the key is that when we do hit a winner it more than pays off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 8, 2009 Share Posted June 8, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Ok, I have used the Ladbrokes correct score vs match odds table to give me a rough understanding of the actual odds for each of the games observed in my table. Of course, using this table only gives a vague idea of what correct score odds were available, but its better than nothing. Below is a table of data with the AVERAGE odds for each scoreline. The headers are explained as the following: Score – This is the actual outcome of the game Proj – This is the projected odds from my table, using each projected score vs actual (Projected 0-0 vs actual 0-0 etc) Act 1 – This is the average actual obtainable odds for the projected games. I have used the match odds to lookup the correct score odds using a Ladbrokes domestic correct score win odds sheet. Tot – This is the total odds for each scoreline assuming EVERY game (6,581) was bet upon that particular scoreline occurring Act 2 – This is the average odds for all games ending in each particular scoreline (Again the Ladbrokes scoresheet was used to generate probable odds) % - This is the percentage of projected scores for all games. I have used 3.5% as a cut off – assuming anything below 230 games is insufficient data (I still would like to find the “official†way to test the accuracy of each scoreline as a sample size) Score Proj Act 1 Tot Act 2 % 0-0 7.03 9.00 11.73 9.67 3.63% 0-1 9.07 8.18 12.66 8.62 6.06% 0-2 13.17 9.32 22.16 13.36 4.60% 0-3 0.47% 0-4 0.05% 1-0 7.87 7.59 8.61 7.77 12.43% 1-1 7.34 6.57 7.85 6.76 17.50% 1-2 13.75 10.24 15.56 12.49 11.70% 1-3 0.79% 1-4 0.03% 2-0 10.66 7.81 11.75 9.07 11.34% 2-1 10.89 8.29 11.39 9.01 11.91% 2-2 14.73 15.57 20.83 16.31 8.28% 2-3 0.36% 2-4 0.02% 3-0 17.06 10.25 23.25 17.36 4.15% 3-1 14.44 13.00 23.59 17.53 3.51% 3-2 1.99% 3-3 0.18% 4-0 0.40% 4-1 0.36% 4-2 0.17% 4-3 0.03% 5-0 0.02% 5-1 0.02% From this data I can conclude that only 1 projected scoreline shows a greater chance of hitting, than the odds provided. The 0-0. 0-0 shows a 14.23% chance of hitting, with an average payout of 9.00. (giving a 42.3 point profit) over 100 level bets. Of course this data is raw, but it is the best I have to work with. I will start posting any projected 0-0’s from this weekend onwards. I will also be using the Ansell staking plan, and will only post selections once I have a matched bet. I will then post with which bookmaker or exchange I have placed the bet. I may now focus on trying to calculate any “lay†betting opportunities based on the opposite of the above. Again, any help with T testing, Chi Squared or any other sample reliability test to see how robust my data is would be much appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetallicIan Posted June 8, 2009 Author Share Posted June 8, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability KThom, It's well known that the overround on correct scores at traditional bookmakers like Ladbrokes are extremely large and even if you have an edge would be unlikely to make a profit in the long term (In my opinion). I still think however that if you were to use your system on Betfair that you would find that your expected odds are below those usually seen there. Unfortunately there isn't an easy way to backtest your system using Betfair, experience has taught me that even using betfairs data download site that the information is not formatted particularly well and difficult to extract the exact information you need quickly enough. I would suggest that you paper test your system using Betfair CS odds (remembering to deduct commission from any winning bets). It may seem a bit labourious but could well be worth the effort financially. ;) As an aside and maybe a topic to start another thread, but it has occurred to me before now that if there are enough people interested on here in helping out trialling someones system, that it may save time and effort on the part of an individual if people are willing to pool their time and resources either in data mining or paper testing certain matches allocated by the person trialling their new system idea. :unsure The person wouldn't necessarily have to divulge any system criteria to those "helpers" but if successful they could be rewarded either by having the system criteria made known to them or free selections in the future. We are Borg - You will be assimilated - Resistance is futile. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 8, 2009 Share Posted June 8, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Hi again Ian, firstly I've somehow made an over sight and not included the 2-2 draw in surmising a profitable scoreline. The vast majority of my correct score (and indeed over / under scores) were placed on betfair for the reasons you have given. But for analysis purpose it is not easy to back test unless using standard bookies odds. I will use the projected odds as my guide going forward (for 0-0 and 2-2) and be vigilant over where the best prices lay. I have had some tremendous help on Chi squared and T testing and am in the process of running my results through the mill. I will publish any findings before the weekends games. I think your pooling idea is a good one, fortunately the actual data collecting isn't that much of an issue for me as I can do this mostly whilst in "work" :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Ok, first selection this summer to be published. Just a quick re-cap and definition for the rules of the 0-0 system. *All odds must be at 10/1 or higher (11.00) *There will be no trading in running - so a game is a loss if it loses 1-0 in the 94th minute the same as if it ends 6-4 *I am aiming for around an 11% hit rate, and a yield rate of around 17.5% *I am using the Ansell staking plan, with a confidence level of 4, and a 500 point starting bank *I will post a running bank after each games outcome. Game 1 Date Home Away League Home Pred Away Pred Stake Odds Bookmaker 21-Jun-09 Corinthians São Paulo Brazil L1 0 0 13.24 14.5 William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetallicIan Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Good Luck KThom :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Latest stats: Bets1Wins0Win rate0.00%Staked13.24Profit + / --13.24Yield-100.00%Avg Odds14.50 Starting Bank500.00Current Bank486.76 Game 2: 24-Jun-09 Tromso IL Viking Stavanger Norway L1 0 0 8.69 13 Sky Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 24, 2009 Share Posted June 24, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability I thought game 2 was the one for a long time :wall Still, here we go with latest results Bets 2 Wins 0 Win rate 0.00% Staked 21.93 Profit + / - -21.93 Yield -100.00% Avg Odds 13.75 Starting Bank 500.00 Current Bank 478.07 Game 3: 28-Jun-09 Sport Recife Grêmio Brazil L1 0 0 13.24 14.50 William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted June 24, 2009 Share Posted June 24, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability What was the result bud? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 24, 2009 Share Posted June 24, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability 0-1, still a loss is a loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted June 24, 2009 Share Posted June 24, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Unlucky. And match one? Keep up the effort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 24, 2009 Share Posted June 24, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Sorry, match 1 was 3-1 so a non starter although did take 38 mins for a goal. I will endeavor to post scores now also as not everyone checks on these leagues. Thanks for the wishes, I hope to hit one soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 3, 2009 Share Posted July 3, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 3 ends 3-1 Latest results Bets 3 Wins 0 Win rate 0.00% Staked 51.61 Profit + / - -51.61 Yield -100.00% Avg Odds 13.3 Starting Bank 500.00 Current Bank 448.39 Game 4: 04-Jul-09 Yamagata Urawa Japan L1 0 0 3.2 10.00 Bet 365 Game 5: 05-Jul-09 Náutico Internacional Brazil L1 0 0 13.24 14.50 William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 4: 2-3 Game 5: 0-2 No selections for this weekend as yet - will post up if anything changes. Still after the illusive first!! Bets 5 Wins 0 Win rate 0.00% Staked 51.61 Profit + / - -51.61 Yield -100.00% Avg Odds 13.3 Starting Bank 500.00 Current Bank 448.39 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability There is one selection for Sunday - I'm awaiting a match on Bet fair so will post once matched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability There is one selection for Sunday - I'm awaiting a match on Bet fair so will post once matched. Game 6 12-Jul-09 Fluminense Santo André Brazil L1 0 0 8.69 13.00 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 6: 0-1 Bets 6 Wins 0 Win rate 0.00% Staked 60.30 Profit + / - -60.30 Yield -100.00% Avg Odds 13.25 Game 7: 16-Jul-09 Atlético Mineiro São Paulo Brazil L1 0 0 7.11 12.00 SportingBet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 8 17-Jul-09 Náutico Vitória Brazil L1 0 0 10.84 14.00 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 7: 2-0 Game 8: 1-1 Bets 8 Wins 0 Win rate 0.00% Staked 78.25 Profit + / - -78.25 Yield -100.00% Avg Odds 13.1875 One game pending a match for Saturday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability No match for saturday's game as odds available do not fit the criteria. Information game: 18-Jul-09 Saturn Mosk FK Rostov na Donu Russia L1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability No selection this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability might help trying to use a Cumulative Poisson Probability Distribution Table phew thank god for the paste button maybe worth a look Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability x1.101.201.301.401.501.601.701.801.902.0000.33290.30120.27250.24660.22310.20190.18270.16530.14960.135310.69900.66260.62680.59180.55780.52490.49320.46280.43370.406020.90040.87950.85710.83350.80880.78340.75720.73060.70370.676730.97430.96620.95690.94630.93440.92120.90680.89130.87470.857140.99460.99230.98930.98570.98140.97630.97040.96360.95590.947350.99900.99850.99780.99680.99550.99400.99200.98960.98680.983460.99990.99970.99960.99940.99910.99870.99810.99740.99660.995571.00001.00000.99990.99990.99980.99970.99960.99940.99920.998981.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00000.99990.99990.99980.999891.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.0000 i had started something like this towards the end of last season but i found myself getting to tied up in try to get an excel sheet to update from a results page an use an elo system to predict draws anyway ive picked it back up again an thought you may be able to use this somehow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability thought i better add the top line is the teams goal average what i was planning was using this table to see if you took the 2 teams goals for average then took the goals against average away from each team then turned that into a % and compared it to the table how well would it predict the results ie a draw have no data as i never got this started as i said i was trying to make an excel sheet footy league table hope this helps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability this is the other end of the table as once you had taken the averages off they were a tad lower than my 1st table x0.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.0000.90480.81870.74080.67030.60650.54880.49660.44930.40660.367910.99530.98250.96310.93840.90980.87810.84420.80880.77250.735820.99980.99890.99640.99210.98560.97690.96590.95260.93710.919731.00000.99990.99970.99920.99820.99660.99420.99090.98650.981041.00001.00001.00000.99990.99980.99960.99920.99860.99770.996351.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00000.99990.99980.99970.999461.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00000.999971.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.00001.0000 be intrested to know if any of this helps good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 29, 2009 Share Posted July 29, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Hi serve cold. Wow a fair bit to digest there. I'll have a proper look and see what use I/we can make of it all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 29, 2009 Share Posted July 29, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Can I just ask, what the 0-9 (and 7 in second table) down the left are signifying? You (like me) like your colours on your formatted tables - its gonna take some investigating for me to get to grips with what you have on that bigger one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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