happygooner Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 No idea where to post this but as it's part of yet another system I'm sort of trialling behind closed doors here seems as good as any. Yesterday based on the fact that Mallorca hadn't beaten Villarreal at home for donkeys I laid them at 3.45......all of a sudden....bang!!! People are falling all over themselves to put money on Mallorca. Sure enough Mallorca lost and although I only saw the score line it didn't look in jeopardy at any time. Sure enough it's happened again today with Both Orgryte which just finished 0-0 and now Litex Lovech who haven't beaten CSKA in the last 4 attempts of this fixture. Price is doodling along at around 3-3.15 before any liquidity came in and so I placed my lay at 3.00. For ages it remained unmatched and then finally someone took the price but nothing really changed in the overall market. All of a sudden....bam!!! Someone's thrown a grand in there at 2.58 and the price has plummeted:eek If yesterday and ealier today is anything to go by it won't make any difference. Yes CSKA might lose but at the current price who is backing Litex Lovech:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted May 31, 2009 Author Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Huge and seemingly very stupid price drops DOH! Can a mod move this as was supposed to go in systems and strategy.:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Huge and seemingly very stupid price drops No idea where to post this but as it's part of yet another system I'm sort of trialling behind closed doors here seems as good as any. :lol not quite :tongue2 Interesting though :unsure Can't see Litex winning myself Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Huge and seemingly very stupid price drops good luck mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted May 31, 2009 Author Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Huge and seemingly very stupid price drops good luck mate :ok Cheers Ali I've got a lay on another Bulgarian team that have not won this fixture in 4 attempts and it's mostly matched at 1.13:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted May 31, 2009 Author Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Huge and seemingly very stupid price drops Ah well I hope the guy enjoyed his grand winnings:\ And as for the 1.13 lay well it lost but at 1.13 I can't say I'm all that bothered:) FT 1-2 Overall I'm around break even so far today but I'm not interested in aftertiming the other games. When I'm sufficiently confident it's not just another foolhardy enterprise I'll start posting again:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted June 1, 2009 Share Posted June 1, 2009 Re: Huge and seemingly very stupid price drops You gotta watch out for strangely priced Bulgarian matches. Match fixing is rife in bulgaria. What I will say is that there is a lot of money to be made trading matches where people "Think" matches are fixed but noone's really sure. I witnessed a match about a month ago where the price for the away team was 1.6 one evening getting plenty of action. Next morning the same team were 3.2! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted June 2, 2009 Author Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: Huge and seemingly very stupid price drops Yeah it's the overall I'm interested in. Thus far I've seen an awful lot of games with teams at low prices where the stats suggest they should probably be double that. Past h2h encounters as long as taking odds into account has, thus far, given a very good indication of what will happen in the next. Not always going to continue down the same path obviously but as they say, history has a funny habit of repeating itself. Strange, but of recent I've seen far more teams priced between 2.00-3.00 fail to win than when I'd been looking at many more higher prices. Pick a card of high prices and you almost certainly see a winner or two which comes completely unexpected. Pick a card of prices between 2.00-5.00 and you still get those same winners but they are easier to overcome. This is how it seems so far anyway. A lot more trialling required before I open myself to further ridicule:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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