Shots on goal system - winner of the match on points in boxing terms

[ANDYMC10]

With the extraordinary amount of data available on football data.co.uk has anybody being able to come up with a system using the shots on goal in previous games in order to help predict the results of future games. I think it is true to say that the main factor that effects the fixed odds prices of teams in matches is previous results and league position and that other statistics may not be taken into account as much. Let me give an example. Results from opening day of league 2 in 2008/2009 (shots on goal in brackets). Accrington 0 (15) Aldershot 1 (6) Luton 1 (17) Port Vale 3 (8) The following week Port Vale played Accrington at home with prices as follows: Home 1.73 Draw 3.5 Away 5 Based on results from the opening round you would go for a home win ( and the price is set based on the opening results) but if you looked at the shots on goal data you may be tempted to go for an away win as the value punt. Result Port Vale 0 (5) Accrington 2 (7) This makes me wonder is it possible to find a consistent correlation between shots on goal in previous games and future results that may bring about a consistent profit?

[Jase82]

Re: Shots on goal system - winner of the match on points in boxing terms I'd agree with this because a lot of results don't represent a true reflection of how either team performed on the day. It could be used to identify a side that hypothetically won 2-0 home or away with only 2 shots on target all game. That side may have been "lucky" but the result only shows a comfortable victory, not the penalty the opposition missed, or the 10 clear cut chances they spooned over the bar! Similarly, it could in theory be used as reasoning to back the side that lost 2-0, missing all those chances because it is highly unlikely they will have such an off day for the 2nd time running.