Cut the Lugsreilly

[Cloud88111]

Did any of our layers get a look at the 20.50 at Worcester yesterday? Not one of these horses had ever ridden before and yet Cut the Lugsreilly was going at around 1.8 at the off. Not trying to talk about previous wins but I layed him just on principal. I'm no so sure about how they work out odds for these 1st time races but surely with so little to go on this was just a massive error (especially as he came 2nd). Anyone else know why this horse was so short in price? Not to mention the fact that there were only 2 other horse in at around 8s and all others were in the 20s. No way could that have been right.

[fintron]

Re: Cut the Lugsreilly As you say Cloud, none of them had ran, and although there was no form to go on the odds compilers probably took into account its connections - that is was trained by the top jumps trainer Paul Nicholls, owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, that it was bought for £61k and that it was related to a high class jumper, Observe, when making up their prices. The big yards often dominate bumpers and so the bookies knew that even if they priced it up short, because of its connections and breeding etc it would be well supported. That isn't to say I don't agree with you. In a race full of unraced horses I wouldn't have taken 1.8 about a newcomer no way, not when any of them could run green on their debuts, but I can understand why it was able to go off as short as it did. Many mug punters will back anything sent out by Paul Nicholls, purely because of his reputation, which is a good thing because it opens up better prices on the field!