Lennon Posted May 1, 2009 Share Posted May 1, 2009 Let's say I have calculated that there will be 3.4 goals scored in a game. Is there a formula that will tell me how often the game will go over 2.5? So 3 goals or more ... I thought I found what I was looking for here but in the rules it says "the event needs to occur one at a time (so the number of points scored in an basketball game couldn't be Poisson)" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinkisntwell Posted May 2, 2009 Share Posted May 2, 2009 Re: Quick math question ... To answer your question you need to calculate not only the expected number of goals in the match but also the variance (or the standard deviation) of the number of goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennon Posted May 2, 2009 Author Share Posted May 2, 2009 Re: Quick math question ... Can you give me an example on how you would do that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scruffbag Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 Re: Quick math question ... to do this in Excel you need to use the Poisson function, with X=2.5, mean=3.4, and cumulative = TRUE. this gives you the probability of obtaining a result less than or equal to 2.5, so you need to substract this probability from 1: i.e. 1 - Poisson(2.5,3.4, TRUE) Hope that helps! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennon Posted May 4, 2009 Author Share Posted May 4, 2009 Re: Quick math question ... Is the poisson function the right formula for this? According to my link it wouldn't work for basketball totals ... I was assuming the same would be true for football totals ... "the event needs to occur one at a time (so the number of points scored in an basketball game couldn't be Poisson)" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Quick math question ... Is the poisson function the right formula for this? According to my link it wouldn't work for basketball totals ... I was assuming the same would be true for football totals ... "the event needs to occur one at a time (so the number of points scored in an basketball game couldn't be Poisson)" Poisson is fine. The reason it doesn't work for basketball is because in that game when a basket is scored either 2 or 3 points is gaines, not 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennon Posted May 5, 2009 Author Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Quick math question ... Ahhhh I see ... great ... thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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