Folkestone 21/4/09

[fintron]

4.30 Folkestone Rutba hails from a late maturing family but is a half-sister to the useful Alfie Flits and demonstrated her staying power last season when winning over 1m 9f at Bath. Trainer Marcus Tregoning has been quoted as saying she will make a hurdler in time, but for the time being she is still rated 65 on flat and may have further races in her in this sphere. She started handicapping off a mark of just 46 and quickly notched up a hat-trick before seeing her progression halted at Lingfield last time out. She is 7 lbs higher than her last win but it would be a great shame if her progression had ended now. She returns from a break, hence the stake is modest now. 9/2 Skybet, 0.75 pt 5.35 Folkestone Mark Johnson is flying at present and even his runners which seem out of form are finishing in the money. The Middleham handler has a superb record in 3 yo handicaps this year with a strike rate of 21-54 (39 %) generating a level stakes profit of +£34.53 so his Hatta Diamond must be respected in the finale. Despite hanging left and showing signs of greenness he survived a stewards enquiry to win at Wolverhampton last time out. He is out of a Sadler's Wells mare and related to winners over 12-14f, so this step up in trip could continue the improvement and he could well win on his handicap debut. 11/4 Bet 365, 4 pts win

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Folkestone 21/4/09 PRECIOUS SECRET 2.30 Folkestone. 0.5 points each way. Will need to hope the favourite doesn't improve too much, but open to improve himself and will benefit from those 2 runs last season. The trip and ground shouldn't be any cause for concern and the favourite, although a deserved favourite, does look far too short in context.