Trading Draws

[tomahawk1984]

***This system involves betting in play. I will post my original bets when I place them and will update the thread with any in play trades I make. This is a paper trial so I won't have any screen shots available***

I know this kind of system has been discussed in pretty great detail on the internet but it has me intrigued. I know all forms of gambling have an element of risk but I think that this could be profitable over the long term if the person using it has the discipline to cut their liability when the time is right. This system will be slow and steady, no get rich quick schemes here! The System 1) Choose a game that is available to bet on in play. There are loads of ways to go about this and I will have a look at a few of them. The first one I will try is simply choosing games I think will have some goals in them. 2) Lay the draw before kick off. 3) Back the draw after the first goal. By first laying the draw and then backing it after the first goal I will hopefully give myself a free bet with a small amount of profit (I've read that aiming for a profit of 1% of your bank for each bet is reasonable). This is dependent on a few factors that I will go into later. Possible Problems 1) If the "underdog" scores first early on then it is not uncommon for the odds on the draw staying the same or even going down. In cases like this it would be reasonable to trade out and take any losses this gives. 2) The score stays 0-0. In this case I would look to trade out if the odds on the draw drop to 2.0 or there is not goal in 75 minutes, whichever happens first. I will inevitably miss out on games that are decided by a late goal but because the profit margins are relatively small I don't think I can afford one big loss wiping out lots of small wins. I have seen backing the 0-0 and possibly the unders market touted as backups but I don't think the profit margin is large enough and any insurance could eat up all my profit. 3) One team scores and the other team equalises before the market has reopened. Meh, what can you do. Hopefully these occasions will be few and far between. Obviously if one team goes ahead again I'll back the draw as normal. Staking This is a paper trial, I will use Betdaq and Betfair to get the best prices before kickoff. I will set my liability to no more than 10% of my bank. This will put limitations on the number of games I can bet on at any one time. I haven't yet placed ranges on odds, some articles say only to bet on games where there is no clear favourite, some say only to bet on games where the home team is a strong favourite. At the moment I'm just going to look at recent form and come to my best conclusion about if I think there will be some goals. Starting bank will be 1000 points.

[tomahawk1984]

Re: Trading Draws 1. Man Utd vs Porto lay draw @ 4.70 Liability 100 points