Hooloovoo Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 Hi, want to test out something here. Current form is important in football, and i will use that: I will back teams that have at least 4 consecutive wins, against team that didn't win their last match, at odds of at least 1.70. Real money but low stakes. All bets with Betfair and results after 5% comm. Start bank: 100 Each bet: 10 :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 4, 2009 Author Share Posted April 4, 2009 Re: Winning streaks 1. Cherno More - Levski, back Levski @ 2.52 2. Oldham - Peterborough, back Peterborough @ 2.42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 4, 2009 Author Share Posted April 4, 2009 Re: Winning streaks 3. Dender - Gent, back Gent @ 1.90 4. MTK Budapest - Zalaegerszegi, back MTK Budapest @ 1.86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 4, 2009 Author Share Posted April 4, 2009 Re: Winning streaks 1. Cherno More - Levski, back Levski @ 2.52 0-0 :( 2. Oldham - Peterborough, back Peterborough @ 2.42 1-2 :) 3. Dender - Gent, back Gent @ 1.90 1-1 :( 4. MTK Budapest - Zalaegerszegi, back MTK Budapest @ 1.86 0-2 :( Amazing result, 3 out of 4 teams ended their win streaks....! :wall Start bank: 100 Bets: 4 Wins: 1 Losses: 3 Strike rate: 25% Current bank: 83.49 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 5, 2009 Author Share Posted April 5, 2009 Re: Winning streaks 5. Panthrakikos - AEK, back AEK @ 1.79 6. Bellinzona - Basel, back Basel @ 1.72 7. Oliveirense - Olhanense, back Olhanense @ 2.38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted April 5, 2009 Share Posted April 5, 2009 Re: Winning streaks Hoo, just a thought but with teams on a good winning streak it might attract punters and result in bad odds being offered, worth following though as you may have found a good laying system :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 5, 2009 Author Share Posted April 5, 2009 Re: Winning streaks Hoo' date=' just a thought but with teams on a good winning streak it might attract punters and result in bad odds being offered, worth following though as you may have found a good laying system :loon[/quote'] Agreed, the more i think about this the worse i feel about it. I will seriously look into the laying aspect! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 5, 2009 Author Share Posted April 5, 2009 Re: Winning streaks 1. Cherno More - Levski, back Levski @ 2.52 0-0 2. Oldham - Peterborough, back Peterborough @ 2.42 1-2 3. Dender - Gent, back Gent @ 1.90 1-1 4. MTK Budapest - Zalaegerszegi, back MTK Budapest @ 1.86 0-2 5. Panthrakikos - AEK, back AEK @ 1.79 1-1 :( 6. Bellinzona - Basel, back Basel @ 1.72 1-1 :( 7. Oliveirense - Olhanense, back Olhanense @ 2.38 1-0 :( Not the start i expected...! Start bank: 100 Bets: 7 Wins: 1 Losses: 6 Strike rate: 14% Current bank: 53.49 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ricass Posted April 6, 2009 Share Posted April 6, 2009 Re: Winning streaks I don't think this system will work. I agree recent form is important but you would need to back test the odds of any team winning 5 in a row. I would say it would be pretty slim, especially since draws come into play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 6, 2009 Author Share Posted April 6, 2009 Re: Winning streaks I don't think this system will work. I agree recent form is important but you would need to back test the odds of any team winning 5 in a row. I would say it would be pretty slim' date=' especially since draws come into play.[/quote'] Thanks for the input. As i already stated, i don't think it would work (altho it's a really small sample). Just for fun, i tested what the results would be if i had layed the teams instead. I did'nt record the lay odds, but i calculated it as back odds + 0.06, since you never get to lay at exactly the same as back odds. This showed a ROI of 66% :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 6, 2009 Share Posted April 6, 2009 Re: Winning streaks Hooloo, not that it's worth much but my gut feeling is if you stick to lower leagues then laying is the play. Consecutive wins requires a continued application of mental concentration intensity which at a lesser professional level is something I would imagine you would find a lot less. High intensity levels are hard to sustain at the highest level of the game, at a lower level my feeling would be that you wouldn't find too many winning streaks. Depending on where the 'in form' team is playing I would considering backing the draw instead of laying too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 6, 2009 Author Share Posted April 6, 2009 Re: Winning streaks Hooloo' date=' not that it's worth much but my gut feeling is if you stick to lower leagues then laying is the play. Consecutive wins requires a continued application of mental concentration intensity which at a lesser professional level is something I would imagine you would find a lot less. High intensity levels are hard to sustain at the highest level of the game, at a lower level my feeling would be that you wouldn't find too many winning streaks. Depending on where the 'in form' team is playing I would considering backing the draw instead of laying too...[/quote'] Thanks for input. There is indeed alot of aspects to consider. Did a quick calculation of matches so far, backing the draw @ 3.25. Resulting ROI was a stunning 79% :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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