Did I get unlucky or did I play it badly?

[GeordieGaz]

Tournament and Situation Was playing at Aspers last night in the £20+2 freezeout. I've hit the final table with around 75k in chips (avg 35k) and I'm 2nd in chips with the 9 players remaining. I've had an unbelieveable run of cards... AA 3 times, KK twice, QQ, AK 3 times.... so obviously I'd have been disappointed if I didn't have around the stack that I had. I'm feeling good.. playing well (well, tourney is playing itself with the cards I'm getting)... the payout structure is top heavy (1st = £600, 2nd = £400, 8th = £70, 9th = £50)... so I have a strategy to just go for the win, usually I'm happy to ladder up but I always go out in 5th, 6th etc... I really wanted the win this time. 2nd Hand in on the final table I pick up 77 in the small blind (blinds 1500/3000)... UTG+1 has pushed all in for 11,500 total... It folds round to me and I call whilst the BB folds... I'm up against AJ and the jack hits the flop so I lose that hand.... not too disappointed as I've already had a good run of cards and was expecting to take a hit. Main Hand Pre-Flop It folds round to me in the cut-off (stack 62k, blinds have just went up to 2k/4k).... I have :Ac: :5h: ..... I try to take the blinds with a raise to 10k but I am called by the BB (chip leader with around 80k)..... Flop The flop brings :7h: :9c: :As: ..... it is checked to me so I bet out 11k, the BB tanks before calling. Turn :Ad: ..... I'm happy, I'm not putting him on an Ace, think he may have a 9 or a 7, not many draws out there so after he checks to me I fire out a 13k bet (around 1/4 of the pot)..... he tanks again and calls River :6h: ...... he reaches for his chips almost instantly and quickly bets out 20k ...... I look at the board and try to work out what he has.... has he got the house?... has he got the straight (8, 10)?.... the more I'm thinking about it the more I think he's bluffing... I only have 28k left after putting in 35k, the pot is 90k and I've got trips..... I just can't bring myself to lay it down because of whats already in the middle so I call only to find that he's hit his straight on the river with :8d: :Tc: Analysis I can't work it out whether I played this hand well or not, Maybe I shouldn't have been in the pot at all with a trash hand like A5? I deffo should have bet more on the turn but knowing the player I think he would have called unless it was over 20k..... so should I have just pushed then? Has villain been very fishy by calling my bets all the way to the river? (that was my initial thought but as I think about it more, I think I may have given him perfect odds to call to hit his draw) It's really bugging me this hand, I really want to learn from this and maybe I need to make my bet sizes bigger in future but any comments thoughts would be greatly appreciated. How it Ended I had 8k left and dbld up almost immediately with KQ, I then pushed my 16k stack in a few hands later with :As: :6s: and got called by the same guy who had the monster :Kh: :6d: ..... flop :Ad: :7d: :Jd: ..... :2d: ...... four card flush.... night night, god bless, 8th for £70 and VERY disappointed!

[happyhornet]

Re: Did I get unlucky or did I play it badly? Pre flop: A5 is good enough for a steal from the cut-off. In essence you are attempting to win without a struggle so do the cards matter per se? Flop: i think your bet is fine there. There is an argument for a bigger (16k) bet but it is unlikely he has an Ace, and there seems only a limited chance of a draw there. Turn: You've hit trips and many people would have checked behind hoping to induce a bluff on the river. You've bet out to look weak and induce a call. Had you bet out more he may have folded his draw but if he did have Q9 he wouldn't calla pot sized bet. River: I can't blame you for looking him up, He could have had Q9 or JJ and was convinced that you didnt have an Ace and bet out. I think his play is ok pre-flop. He suspects you don't have a hand, but wouldn't he be better off re-raising rather than playing OOP? With an open ended draw, you gave him reasonable odds to call on the flop, but on the turn with a paired board and only 8 outs maximum, i think that is a dodgy call personally. I wouldn't beat yourself up over it Gaz, i think you were mostly just unlucky IMO:ok

[Paul176]

Re: Did I get unlucky or did I play it badly? I think you played it fine. Not sure cause I presume all casinos differ but at the one near me pot odds etc. just don't register in people minds. You get a lot of self declared 'gamblers' who like to 'live on the edge' and so they love drawing at you even for questionable odds. 10 8 is such an unlikely holding you've just got to ignore the possibility at that late stage. I think I would have been more worried about him having another ace with a better kicker but you couldn't just throw away trip As on the end! Only thing I'd say is hes probably the one stack to avoid on the table. Admittedly I've no idea how to avoid him when you need to pick up blinds and hes just to your left.

[ELCAKER]

Re: Did I get unlucky or did I play it badly? Morning Gaz, Firstly - very unlucky mate, that is a tough one to swallow. If I can start by suggesting that your mindset might have been wrong from the start of the final table. "I've had an unbelieveable run of cards... AA 3 times, KK twice, QQ, AK 3 times.... so obviously I'd have been disappointed if I didn't have around the stack that I had. I'm feeling good.. playing well (well, tourney is playing itself with the cards I'm getting)... the payout structure is top heavy (1st = £600, 2nd = £400, 8th = £70, 9th = £50)... so I have a strategy to just go for the win, usually I'm happy to ladder up but I always go out in 5th, 6th etc... I really wanted the win this time." Obviously you really wanted the win, and you felt that you had the chip stack to really go deep, this doesnt however mean that you need to play loose. With the payout structure being so top heavy you really dont need to get involved. In my experience people start to gamble alot more when they have reached the money therefore let the small and medium stacks knock each other out. AS Billy The Punter often advocates you need to protect your chips at all times so the less pots you play the better. I'm not saying their is anything wrong with the 77 hand - that's poker - the villain wanted to take the gamble, and he was rewarded. He probably wouldn't have called on the bubble, but as I said, when the money kicks in the smaller stacks come to play - this is their chance to make things happen. Onto the exit hand..... This is a bit of everything in my mind. Yes you are ultimately a little unlucky that he did hit his cards but actually when you analyse it you had plenty of opportunity to work out what he had. I would suggest that you didnt really want to believe he had you beat, as firstly that would mean laying down TRIP ACES (!!), and secondly it would also mean your exit from the tournament, which would be very tuff to bear considering the fantastic position you had found yourself in. So pre flop you got A5...not a grt hand...especially when the big blind is the big stack....I would argue that 10k isnt enough. I'm a tight player but if it is only 6k more in my BB I'm calling with any 2 . If you make it 12 - 14k then you win the pot there and then Flop appears a great one for you - you cant put him on an ace because he hasn't re-raised, certainly not a big one. It is unlikely that he has a medium to big pair for the same reason - after that tho' he could have anything - which leads us back to the problem of not being able to clearly define his range because your pre-flop rasie wasn't big enough. But how big is A5? Only one way to find out - bet it and bet it confidently. There's 22k in the pot, you have top pair, poor kicker and a 52k stack. A pot sized bet here tells you everything you need to know. There aren't too many obvious draws, certainly no flush draws so it unlikely he is going to re-raise you all in with "total air". If you bet 20-22k here you win the pot. You dont! You only bet a weak looking 11k. He has the odds to call and does......Turn comes the 2nd ace. Wow - now you have to be in front and you've actually managed to sneak an extra 11k out of him. But now we need to try and really work out what hand he has? What would he call a pre-flop raise with, then an 11k bet on that flop. It can only be 2 pair with 9-7 or 10-8 which gives him the up and down str8. Time to put this to bed right here and now. There's 44k in the pot - you have 41k left and trip aces. To my mind this is where you made your biggest mistake of the whole tournament. If you stick the lot in. You win the pot, move your stack upto 85k and take your closest rival down to 60k. But you dont....by not really defining his hand properly you allow yourself to get married to the trip aces and the belief that you can get a full double up.....A ridiculously weak bet of 13k gives him near enough exactly the odds he needs to make the hero call. He does. The 6 hits the river and now he wants to bet it!!! At this point you have to muck your hand face up and go to war/tilt (!) with your remaining .stack - still I might add 28k. He has to have made his str8 - call, call, call - bet. Why oh why would he want to tangle with you? So in conclusion Gaz I think the main problem here was threefold, you failed to define his hand, you didnt bet it strongly enough on the flop or the turn, and you then failed to put down the hand becuase you got married to it! Yes you were unlucky that trip ACES were beaten, but they were by a better hand. And you had ample opportunity to take down the pot whilst they were in front. The key miss for me was on the turn - that was when you you had built the hand/pot up and that was when you needed to take it down. Very unlucky mate, and I guarantee you this, you will learn from the experience and next time you find yourself in this spot I have no doubt you'll do a lot better than 8th!!

[Paul176]

Re: Did I get unlucky or did I play it badly? Your analysis was far superior to mine ELCAKE ;) I'm going to try again although from the villians viewpoint. Preflop: He had the odds preflop no doubt about that. 6k to see a pot of 16k. Pot stands at 22k Postflop: 11k to see a pot of 33k. Now he has the odds if he gets to see two cards but hes got to account for another round of betting. I suppose by combining outs of 10 8 runner runner, possibly a 10, also adding the possibility you are bluffing and he can take it off you on the turn and implied odds he can justify this call. To me though this call is a little loose. Yes hes hit an open ended draw but you raised preflop and an ace came down. There must be a good chance you are holding an ace and will therefore heavily bet the turn. Pot stands at 44k Turn: 13k to see a pot of 57k. Here he has the odds even without getting a call on the river if he hits. Pot stands at 70k River: Now hes hit his hand and its just about extracting that bit of value. By making it 20k for you to call a pot of 90k hes giving you 4.5 to 1 on your money. Hes just putting a value bet out on the end. While with hindsight its easy to say just lay it down the possibility of two pair or a desperate bluff is still there. I suppose it comes down to how good you think he is. The initial steal looks unlikely to take the blinds. The postflop call however I would say is loose and is his blunder. You have given odds on the turn so this is your blunder but I would say the call on the river could be justified. While he will no doubt be congratulating himself on it and its true you can only make your decisions on where you stand at the time but looking at the hand the call postflop still looks loose. Hes getting 3 to 1 on his money but if you bet the turn that may well only buy him one card.

[GeordieGaz]

Re: Did I get unlucky or did I play it badly? thanks for your posts Paul, some very interesting points and I think there is an argument for me having having played this badly and also having played it ok. ELCAKE - many thanks for your analysis - very detailed and you talk a lot of sense of which I can take a lot for. Your point about defining his range is what I need to learn about a lot. - too often I will play the game, take a few moments to think about my decisions but don't really think about what my oppo has in his hand. I am going to incorporate this into my game a lot more over the coming months and hopefully this will make me a better player. thanks guys - really good stuff! :clap

[morlspin]

Re: Did I get unlucky or did I play it badly? fish

[Blatch]

Re: Did I get unlucky or did I play it badly? Hey Gaz, Have read the above and I would like to know the stack sizes of the people between yourself and the BB? Did you look at these or have a rough idea before you raised? When im playing a final table I always no roughly what each player has and it helps a great deal. Personally I really dislike the raise to 10k pre flop with A5. The raise is a must here but when attacking the probably the only player at the table who can knock you out I would deffo be raising to 12k i.e. 3X. The reason I ask about the stacks sizes between you is that it should tell them all apart from the BB that your not folding if you get re popped and will hopefully give you no decision if you are re raised by a short stack. Assuming you raise to 12k and the BB still calls then a lot has to do with his standard of play and also his perception of your standard too and if he is good enough to read your level of play. When he checks the ace high board here im torn between checking and betting. The reason to bet is for information but I would expect a decent ish Ace to re pop you pre flop as he has you covered and would have to play the hand OOP. I prefer the trap check asuming he is a half decent player. When the Ace hits the turn im deffo betting whatever I did on the flop if he checks to me. This is where his level will decide what he puts you on. A good player may well think your value betting K high or even 2nd / 3rd pair and you may get action. I think your bet should be 16-19k and this should see you only getting action from 2nd pair or someone trying to be a hero with 3rd pair. The way you have played it is a bit unlucky and you did well not to re raise the river but I would hope you would never consider folding the river here.

[Blatch]

Re: Did I get unlucky or did I play it badly?

There's 22k in the pot, you have top pair, poor kicker and a 52k stack. A pot sized bet here tells you everything you need to know. There aren't too many obvious draws, certainly no flush draws so it unlikely he is going to re-raise you all in with "total air". If you bet 20-22k here you win the pot. Why would you do this? Your only getting called if your beat and taking all the value out of your hand now. Time to put this to bed right here and now. There's 44k in the pot - you have 41k left and trip aces. To my mind this is where you made your biggest mistake of the whole tournament. If you stick the lot in. You win the pot, move your stack upto 85k and take your closest rival down to 60k. This is simply rediculous!!!!!!!! How do you know you have the best hand here? If you bet all in your only getting called if your losing and would have 2 outs probably. I agree his bet size was wrong but to go all in is one of the worst things ive read on here.

.

[GeordieGaz]

Re: Did I get unlucky or did I play it badly?

Hey Gaz, Have read the above and I would like to know the stack sizes of the people between yourself and the BB? Did you look at these or have a rough idea before you raised?

not sure as to what the stacks were but I know I had a lot more than the button and the SB so between 25-40k each and then we had villain in the BB with around 80k

Personally I really dislike the raise to 10k pre flop with A5. The raise is a must here but when attacking the probably the only player at the table who can knock you out I would deffo be raising to 12k i.e. 3X.

does an extra 2k actually make a difference here? :unsure i think he's still calling!

The way you have played it is a bit unlucky and you did well not to re raise the river but I would hope you would never consider folding the river here.

As I said in my post, I just couldn't fold on the river due to the pot odds but having talked to a few PLrs over the weekend at the Virgin Festival there was deffo an argument for folding on the river as there is so many hands beating me... An ace with a higher kicker is still a possibility or he could possibly have the house. The straight is out there aswell so I deffo think it wouldn't be the worst play to fold on the river here. Why would you not consider folding? because of pot odds? :unsure

[Blatch]

Re: Did I get unlucky or did I play it badly?

not sure as to what the stacks were but I know I had a lot more than the button and the SB so between 25-40k each and then we had villain in the BB with around 80k does an extra 2k actually make a difference here? :unsure i think he's still calling! Yeah I think the 2k does make quite a difference but I think your under estimating knowing the other stacks. It really is a major factor here. Ill try to explain without confusing myself or anyone who reads :unsure If they say have between 20k and 25k then a raise to 12k tells them that they have absolute no fold equity so in which case you should prob raise to 14k or so to take any kind of odds away from the BB. If they have around the 45k mark then I would raise to 12k as stated and then re assess if they do in fact shove as they would expect you to put down a lot of hands if its another 30k + to call. As I said in my post, I just couldn't fold on the river due to the pot odds but having talked to a few PLrs over the weekend at the Virgin Festival there was deffo an argument for folding on the river as there is so many hands beating me... An ace with a higher kicker is still a possibility or he could possibly have the house. The straight is out there aswell so I deffo think it wouldn't be the worst play to fold on the river here. Why would you not consider folding? because of pot odds? :unsure

Im not saying I call due to pot odds but I also because a lot of people would possibly bet here with hands like 10's, 10/9, J9 etc etc. Its also a bet that could be fired in to get you to fold 3rd pair or complete air. i.e. The smallest bluff bet that wont get called.