Crouch Potato Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 The fundemental factor behind this one is picking games where I believe there's a comparatively good chance that a team will fail to score, combined with the belief that they are a decent chance of losing. Once I've identified this team, I will back them to lose 2-0 if away and 1-0 if at home. Portsmouth v Everton Everton 1-0 @ 8.00 Betfair Everton concede very few goals on the road and those they have let in were against Man Utd and Liverpool. Portsmouth have won just once in 13 games. These two factors combined means an Everton clean sheet is a strong chance. Given Everton's good run of late there is a solid possibility of them winning. Bayern v Karlsruhe Bayern 2-0 @ 8.00 Betfair Karlsruhe have not scored in 8 of their past 9 games. Given they have just about the toughest road trip in Germany, I think that a low prospect for their to score is established. Bayern being at home against this calibre opposition is more than enough to satisfy that they are a chance to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 21, 2009 Author Share Posted March 21, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Rennes v Valenciennes Rennes 2-0 @ 7 Betstar Rennes have kept 8 clean sheets in their last 9 home games. Valenciennes haven't scored an away goal in their past 3 trips, have scored 6 away goals all season and are without key striker Darcheville for this game. They are winless on the road this year and Rennes are yet to lose at home. Combined with Rennes' strong form I believe the case can be made for a Rennes victory being likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 21, 2009 Author Share Posted March 21, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Fulham v Manchester United Manchester United 1-0 @ 6.8 Betfair Fulham's home form has dipped of late. Manchester United have conceded just 7 goals on the road this season and have their much reknowned defence. In the past 4 H2H meetings Fulham haven't scored against Utd. This satisfies the clean sheet criteria, whilst the Manchester United to win criteria basically explains itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 22, 2009 Author Share Posted March 22, 2009 Re: Correct Score System 0/4 so not the best way to start this one off. 2/4 games had the team kept scoreless though, so I suppose that's something. Inter v Reggina Inter 2-0 @ 6.6 Betfair Reggina have scored just 4 away goals all season. Inter are obviously a top team with a decent defence and there's a good chance Reggina wont score. The Inter to win aspect explains itself. Fiorentina v Siena Fiorentina 2-0 @ 8 Betfair Siena have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 away games. Fiorentina have kept 6 home clean sheets this season and are a reasonable chance of keeping a clean sheet. There's also a reasonable chance they will win so am happy to include this game. AZ v Feyenoord AZ 2-0 @ 7.50 Sportingbet AZ have kept 11 clean sheets in 13 home games this season. Feyenoord are ok at scoring on the road but didn't breach Ajax or PSV's defence during those road trips so I see no reason why that trend can't continue. AZ to win basically explains itself. Liverpool v Aston Villa Liverpool 2-0 @ 7 Betfair Aston Villa are on a bit of a down trend and haven't scored too well of late. Their recent away trip to City yielded no goals and Liverpool have a superb defence which Villa will struggle to breach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 22, 2009 Author Share Posted March 22, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Man City v Sunderland Man City 2-0 @ 9.4 Betfair Sunderland have struggled this year to score on their travels and City generally keep a clean sheet when they win their home matches. Man City have a strong home record and feel that a victory to them is more than likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 23, 2009 Author Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Very annoying night! All 5 games saw my selected team fail to score, and in total there were 10 goals, yet not one ended 2-0! Bets: 9 Wins: 0 S/R: 0% P/L: -9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 23, 2009 Author Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Correct Score System CSKA v Tomsk CSKA 2-0 @ 6 Tomsk failed to score in 7 away games last season whilst CSKA kept 6 home clean sheets. CSKA have more match conditioning and are a superior team to Tomsk and I can see this being a like game for a home clean sheet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted March 25, 2009 Share Posted March 25, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Keep going CP, you've been really unlucky so far, pay-dirt is just round the corner1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 4, 2009 Author Share Posted April 4, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Thanks Bedlam, hopefully some better luck today. 0/10 so far so probably can't get too much worse. Arsenal v Man City Arsenal 2-0 @ 7.4 Newcastle v Chelsea Chelsea 1-0 @ 7.2 Fulham v Liverpool Liverpool 1-0 @ 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 4, 2009 Author Share Posted April 4, 2009 Re: Correct Score System AZ v ADO Den Haag AZ 2-0 @ 6.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Hımm, maybe you can incraese your chance by picking 2-3 scores for each match. For example, 2-0, 2-1 and 1-0 for Arsenal, Chelsea and L'pool. 2-0 and 3-0 for AZ. GL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 4, 2009 Author Share Posted April 4, 2009 Re: Correct Score System That idea would definitely increase my chances of a win, but for now I'm not too convinced it'll increase my chances of profit, so I'll keep with the plan for now. Thanks for the input. Guimaraes v Porto Porto 1-0 @ 7.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
equinoxx Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Arsenal won 2-0 didn't they? If so - well done! EDIT - Whoops, you had Man City. Sorry! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 4, 2009 Author Share Posted April 4, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Actually, it was Arsenal 2-0 that I had. Unlike most correct score bets, the premise for the selection doesn't stem from a belief that a team will win, rather, that one team is likely to be kept scoreless. The underlined team in each bet is the team that I believe will have a lot of difficulty scoring, which in this case was Man City. Slightly disappointing not to see Chelsea 1-0 come in, but at least it appears the clean sheet criteria is pretty consistent (so far). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Thanks Bedlam, hopefully some better luck today. 0/10 so far so probably can't get too much worse. Arsenal v Man City Arsenal 2-0 @ 7.4 Newcastle v Chelsea Chelsea 1-0 @ 7.2 Fulham v Liverpool Liverpool 1-0 @ 7 2/3 is a hell of a lot better...! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 5, 2009 Author Share Posted April 5, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Man Utd v Aston Villa Man Utd 2-0 @ 6.8 Milan v Lecce Milan 2-0 @ 6.6 Udinese v Inter Inter 1-0 @ 7.6 Amadora v Benfica Benfica 1-0 @ 6.4 Leixoes v Sporting Lisbon Sporting Lisbon 1-0 @ 6.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 5, 2009 Author Share Posted April 5, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Falkirk v Rangers Rangers 1-0 @ 7.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 6, 2009 Author Share Posted April 6, 2009 Re: Correct Score System 2/3 is a hell of a lot better...! :clap Cheers mate. 4/6 tonight too so I've gone from 0/10 to 6/21 in a weekend. No way that sort of success will keep up but nice to be ahead at this early stage. Bets: 21 Wins: 6 Staked: 21 Returned: 42.2 (pre-commission) Profit: 21.2 (pre-commission) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Man Utd v Porto Man Utd 2-0 @ 6.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunshine Avenue Posted April 8, 2009 Share Posted April 8, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Hi, would be interesting to know the average odds of the favorite team for Betfairs 'clean sheet' market. Feel it may pan out around 2.3. Would consider adding this on to avoid long losing runs. In theory if the correct scores win, so would this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 8, 2009 Author Share Posted April 8, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Hi Sunny. That's definitely a viable option and makes some good sense. My only concern though is that picking a clean sheet game then becomes even more vital, which could alter my analysis of games and willingness to include certain matches. At present a game that I might consider a borderline clean sheet bet still gets included as a correct score bet because of the extra value attached. Certainly something I'm keeping an eye on but I'm quite aware of it's potential to affect my mentality when betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunshine Avenue Posted April 8, 2009 Share Posted April 8, 2009 Re: Correct Score System no worries pal, wish you well, think I would 'green up' on betfair some times. Any winnings might as well plonk on Oz to win Ashes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 10, 2009 Author Share Posted April 10, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Breda v AZ AZ 1-0 @ 8.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 11, 2009 Author Share Posted April 11, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Nice way to start the weekend. Bets: 23 Wins: 7 Staked: 23 Returned: 50.2 (pre-commission) Profit: 27.2 (pre-commission) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 11, 2009 Author Share Posted April 11, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Chelsea v Bolton Chelsea 2-0 @ 6.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 11, 2009 Author Share Posted April 11, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Sunderland v Man Utd Man Utd 1-0 @ 6.8 Inter v Palermo Inter 2-0 @ 6 Wigan v Arsenal Arsenal 1-0 @ 7.2 Porto v Estrela Amadora Porto 2-0 @ 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 11, 2009 Author Share Posted April 11, 2009 Re: Correct Score System PSV v Utrecht PSV 2-0 @ 6 Villareal v Malaga Villareal 2-0 @ 12.5 Twente v Roda Twente 2-0 @ 6 Barcelona v Recreativo Barcelona 2-0 @ 6.6 Sporting Lisbon v Naval Sporting Lisbon 2-0 @ 5.5 Genoa v Juventus Juventus 1-0 @ 7.5 That should be it for the day. A few shorter odds selections than what's available due to funding problems on Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 12, 2009 Author Share Posted April 12, 2009 Re: Correct Score System 2/11 for Saturday, which I suppose is borderline profitable. Bets: 34 Wins: 9 Staked: 34 Returned: 62.8 (pre-commission) Profit: 28.8 (pre-commission) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 12, 2009 Author Share Posted April 12, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Lyon v Monaco Lyon 2-0 @ 5.8 Ajax v Willem II Ajax 2-0 @ 6.5 Man City v Fulham Man City 2-0 @ 9.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 12, 2009 Author Share Posted April 12, 2009 Re: Correct Score System Zenit St Petersburg v Amkar Zenit 2-0 @ 6.00 That'll be it for a small looking Sunday bet list Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.