Samba_SamPa Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 ***PAPER TRIAL ONLY*** Working on a system for Over/Unders, but not sure of which staking plan to use as yet. Am going to paper trial each staking plan until I have about 250 bets, to see which (if any :$) returns the best profit. Starting with £1000, and betting to £5 a point. Staking Plan A will use the stake suggested by my system (up to 10pts max). Staking Plan B will use a Level Stakes approach of 5 points per bet. Staking Plan C will use a progressive/regressive version of Plan A. Before each round of bets the £ per point will be recalculated to 0.5% of current bank. Staking Plan D will use a progressive/regressive version of Plan B. Before each round of bets the £ per point will be recalculated to 0.5% of current bank. Also, to complicate matters further, I am going to keep separate records for '1.5', '>2,5' and '>3.5' - whichever of those is the "value". In some matches there may be more than one of the bets which is value - in such cases I will advise the staking for each one. I will also show the %value I believe there is in the price available - hopefully this will become a useful tool to apply further filters in time. Hope you can follow that :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Sounds interesting, best of luck with it Samba_SamPa :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Good luck with this, as always - need any help just give me a buzz :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Cheers lads. Got all selections for today, but some stakes are dependent on the outcome of the early 4pm and 4.15pm games. Under 1.5 goals Diyarbakespor v Erciyesspor 3.30 Sportingbet St Pauli v Kaiserslautern 4.50 Unibet Spal v Reggiana 2.90 Goldbet Wycombe v Rotherham 3.10 Sportingbet Hull v Tottenham 3.50 Sportingbet Under 2.5 goals Ionikos v Kallithea 1.57 Bet365 St Pauli v Kaiserslautern 2.30 Nordicbet Metz v Lens 1.67 Globetclub Wycombe v Rotherham 1.69 Various Hull v Tottenham 1.91 Pinnacle Under 3.5 goals Ancona v Frosinone 1.20 Paddy Power Wycombe v Rotherham 1.23 BetChronicle Over 1.5 goals Slavia Prague v Plzen 1.30 PartyBets M. Netanya v M. Haifa 1.40 VCBet Metz v Lens 1.50 PartyBets Ancona v Frosinone 1.41 Betsafe Pisa v Salernitana 1.41 Betsafe Over 2.5 goals Slavia Prague v Plzen 2.02 Pinnacle M. Netanya v M. Haifa 2.26 10Bet Thun v Lausanne 1.55 Various Ancona v Frosinone 2.27 BetChronicle Pisa v Salernitana 2.30 BetChronicle Spal v Reggiana 2.60 Bet365 Over 3.5 goals M. Netanya v M. Haifa 4.35 VCBet St Pauli v Kaiserslautern 2.95 Centrebet Metz v Lens 5.25 PartyBets Pisa v Salernitana 4.20 Betsafe Hull v Tottenham 3.50 Various Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Forgot: Leixoes v Belenenses for Under 1.5 (2.70 Sportingbet) and under 2.5 (1.55 Various) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System good luck with this matey......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Best of luck, Samba! :ok I will follow this thread closely, as I like betting on unders/overs (in fact, I earned nearly all my points in two qualifying phases and two group matchday selecting the unders). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 24, 2009 Author Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Banks after last night's matches Under 1.5 Goals A £1017.35 B £1010.00 C £1016.74 D £1008.56 Under 2.5 goals A £983.64 B £989.00 C £982.90 D £988.64 Under 3.5 goals A £967.72 B £980.75 C £967.72 D £980.75 Over 1.5 goals A £1022.71 B £1015.25 C £1022.84 D £1015.31 Over 2.5 goals A £983.61 B £982.25 C £982.38 D £981.14 Over 3.5 goals A £920.29 B £875.00 C £920.29 D £875.00 Will post up tomorrow's selections in the morning some time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 24, 2009 Author Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Struggling to get tonight's done, been busy most of the day, will get them up as soon as I can, here's the earlier kickoffs for now Got Over 2.5s on Bayonee-Istres and Beauvais-Cherbourg Got Unders 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 on Veendam-Omniworld :hope Will stick link to spreadsheet up later so stakes can be witnessed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 24, 2009 Author Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Family issues..... a wife :@ lol ..... have prevented me from doing tonight's games :wall Not to worry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 25, 2009 Author Share Posted February 25, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Zalaergerszegi v Debreceni >2.5 @ 1.60 Sportingbet A £32.96 B £25.00 C £31.30 D £23.30 >3.5 @ 2.63 Sportingbet A £20.46 B £25.00 C £18.83 D £21.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 25, 2009 Author Share Posted February 25, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Postponed :wall lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 25, 2009 Share Posted February 25, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Postponed :wall lol weather's not even that bad today.....snow is all melting, would have thought it would have been played, ah well. you on msn? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 25, 2009 Author Share Posted February 25, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Just sorting out my files to run games on the football league I (help to) run. Will be on in about an hour Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System This system is moving offline into a testing period. Thanks to Lunatism's amazing efforts, we now have all value picks generated automatically, and this has led to being able to obtain what will be a larger sample with which to judge the system a lot quicker (over 350 selections today). Maybe after next weekend or the one after, I will look at seeing where, and what, filters can be applied to improve the profitability of the system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted March 1, 2009 Author Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Results from yesterday's games Under 1.5 goals [55 games] Systems A&C: +£81.42 Systems B&D: +£50.00 Under 2.5 goals [79 games] Systems A&C: +£245.63 Systems B&D: +£196.00 Under 3.5 goals [50 games] Systems A&C: -£4.73 Systems B&D: -£6.75 Over 1.5 goals [52 games] Systems A&C: -£163.10 Systems B&D: -£106.75 Over 2.5 goals [59 games] Systems A&C: +£79.09 Systems B&D: +£102.25 Over 3.5 goals [48 games] Systems A&C: -£126.53 Systems B&D: -£221.00 Overall [343 games] Systems A&C: +£111.78 Systems B&D: +£13.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted March 2, 2009 Author Share Posted March 2, 2009 Re: Samba's 'O/U Value' System Overall stats for those games in which the degree of my perceived value was over 10% Bets 59 Wins 34 Strike rate 57.63% Avg Win Odds 1.88 Staked £1915.36 Returns £2113.22 P/L +£197.86 ROI +10.33% Stats where my perceived value was over 10%, and my perceived likelihood of the bet being a winner was over 66.66% Bets 30 Wins 24 Strike Rate 80.00% Avg Win Odds 1.56 Staked £1172.27 Returns £1461.56 P/L +£289.29 ROI +24.68% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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