a1ehouse Posted February 20, 2009 Share Posted February 20, 2009 Some of you may have seen my post on ELO ratings. Well after some promising results with my prediction package, I am now going to paper trial the system for a month. Essentially I have all the downloadable data from the football-data site with a rating function applied to all games based on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings and http://www.eloratings.net/system.html and included goals scored and home team advantage adjustments. Basically I will post all games where the ratings are over 90% and under 10%. Generally the backtested results throw consistent winners above 95% and below 5%, so will focus on them for the bets. Starting with 100 point bank I will stake 10 points per game and see how we go!! :hope Remember this is a PAPER TRIAL ONLY!!! Edit: 2009/10 Season starts at thread 61: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/a1ehouse-ltd-lay-draw-2009-10-a-80638/#post1441585 :hope 3000 point bank, Maria ratchet staking and live!! :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted February 20, 2009 Author Share Posted February 20, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 21, 2009 Share Posted February 21, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Good Luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted February 22, 2009 Author Share Posted February 22, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Bloody typical! TopAndThePlops HomeTeam Result Barcelona :wall Peterhead :dude Rangers :dude Man United :dude Bayern Munich :wall Sivasspor :dude Galatasaray :wall Ajax :dude Selections: Galatasaray -10pts :wall Barcelona -10pts :wall Bank: 80 Bets: 2 Winners: 0 P/L: -20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted February 27, 2009 Author Share Posted February 27, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Weekend 2: TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy B365H B365D B365A 28/02/2009 Premier League Celtic St Mirren 93.11% 1.22 6 15 01/03/2009 KPN Eredivisie Twente Den Haag 92.93% 1.25 5 11 Nothing above 95% so no qualifiers. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 1, 2009 Author Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Shame they weren't high enough on the % TopAndThePlops HomeTeam Result Celtic :dude Twente :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 3, 2009 Author Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy B365H B365D B365A 03/03/2009 Premier League Liverpool Sunderland 90.98% 1.4 4.3 9.5 Mid week English Prem, again nothing above 95% so no qualifiers, maybe being to cautious with the percentage, but will see how it runs for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 3, 2009 Author Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops TopAndThePlops HomeTeam Result Liverpool :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops As the full fixture list wasn't available from footy data site there would have been 2 additions that were above 90%, but as neither made the cut I am posting for completeness: TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy B365H Result 03/03/2009 Premier League Liverpool Sunderland 90.98% 1.4 :dude 03/03/2009 League 2 Wycombe Chester 90.91% 1.44 :dude 04/03/2009 Premier League Rangers Inverness C 94.50% 1.16 :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 6, 2009 Author Share Posted March 6, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Weekend 3: TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy B365H B365D B365A 07/03/2009 League 1 Leicester Cheltenham 94.91% 1.28 5 12 07/03/2009 Division 2 Ayr Stranraer 93.38% 1.22 5.75 13 07/03/2009 Bundesliga 1 Wolfsburg Karlsruhe 91.41% 1.4 4.5 7.5 Nothing again above 95% though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 7, 2009 Author Share Posted March 7, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Would have been another clean sweep. TopAndThePlops HomeTeam Result Leicester :dude Ayr :dude Wolfsburg :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted March 7, 2009 Share Posted March 7, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops How would you have been getting on if you had not been paying attention to the 95% to qualify? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 7, 2009 Author Share Posted March 7, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops How would you have been getting on if you had not been paying attention to the 95% to qualify? Hey aldric, looking at all selections I've posted so far we'd get: Starting Bank100Current Bank£94.50Total Staked£160.00Number of Bets16Winning Bets12Losing Bets4Strike Rate75.00%Yield-3.44%P/L-£5.50 A decent strike rate, just that the odds will mean I have to be more selective on what makes the cut. Back testing reduces the number of selections, but increases the likelihood of profit. Suggestions welcome!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 12, 2009 Author Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Downloaded the fixtures and looks like I missed one on 10th. Again missed the 95% cut off and posting for completeness. Need to make a mental note to check the downloads on Tuesdays and Fridays! Good job I keep all pre and post match ratings!!! TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy B365H Result 10/03/2009 Division 2 Brechin Stranraer 92.64% 1.25 :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 12, 2009 Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Hi a1ehouse good luck with your system. In response to your request for suggestions on ways to improve the system results I believe that a small improvement in the odds would make the system profitable. I have not checked the figures but I believe that if you were able to get e.g. 1.44 instead of 1.4 or 1.28 instead of 1.25 then this increase in odds would provide a profit for your 95% selections. GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 12, 2009 Author Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Thanks davidc, I agree that there will need to be some adjustments following the paper trial. Basic back testing led me to the 5%/95% cut off, but as there are a lot more winning selections that are coming through I'll need to do some further analysis. Having read a number of posts (and as you are alluding to) it could all be about finding "fair" booky price. Always happy to share opinion as the system develops! I have recently been looking at regression testing all the ratings (over 10000 games) with some very interesting and positive results. Top graphs I plotted rating against percentage of times the result happened Bottom graphs I plotted rating against total number of occurrences Blue = Home Green = Away Red = Draw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 13, 2009 Author Share Posted March 13, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 17, 2009 Author Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Another "all selection" today. Lewes not exactly rocking in form... TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority B365H B365D B365A HomeOverall HomeForm AwayOverall AwayForm 17/03/2009 Conference Kettering Town Lewes 92.56% 15 1.22 5.25 11 LDWWDW 11 LDWWWW 13 LLLLLL 0 LLLLLL 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 17, 2009 Author Share Posted March 17, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 20, 2009 Author Share Posted March 20, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 22, 2009 Author Share Posted March 22, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 27, 2009 Author Share Posted March 27, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops No selections this weekend due to World Cup qualifiers. :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 3, 2009 Author Share Posted April 3, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 5, 2009 Author Share Posted April 5, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops 2 very late goals from Milan makes it a full house!! :nana:nana:nana:nana Not sure why Milan appeared twice in the other post. TopAndThePlopsHomeTeamResultAZ Alkmaar:dudeCeltic:dudeHercules:dudeMilan:dude Profit in the 1090's: 595's1090'sStarting Bank£100.00£100.00Current Bank£83.40£104.50Total Staked£40.00£370.00Number of Bets437Winning Bets230Losing Bets27Strike Rate50.00%81.08%Yield-41.50%1.22%P/L-£16.60£4.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 6, 2009 Author Share Posted April 6, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Looking at the disappointing overall yield, how can this be turned into something profitable? Reading a lot of threads about finding value, staking plans and laying systems got me into thinking laying the draw. At the above odds and selections I am right in thinking we'd have got (taking into account 5% commission)? LayTheDrawStarting Bank£100.00Current Bank£354.50Number of Bets37Winning Bets35Losing Bets2Strike Rate94.59% :loonYield68.78% :loonP/L£254.50 :loon Losing £50 on the Fenerbache game of 13 Feb and £28 on the Bury game of 21 March. If so I think a bit more backtesting is in order... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 8, 2009 Author Share Posted April 8, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Change of tactics, continuing the paper trade for a bit. From now on these will be to LAY THE DRAW: TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority HomeTeamForm AwayTeamForm HeadToHead B365H B365D B365A 08/04/2009 Premier League Celtic Falkirk 92.23% 5 13 lWdDdWWd 9 ldWdLdLW Celtic:15(8) Falkirk:2(1) Draws:2(0) 1.16 6.5 17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 8, 2009 Author Share Posted April 8, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops TopAndThePlopsHomeTeamResultCeltic:dude Walk in the park! Will be testing the now infamous "Maria-Ratchet-Staking" plan based on staking % of the bank depending on available odds. £1000 bank so: 1.0% (£10 ~ liability under £25) if odds <=3.5 0.6% (£6 ~ liability £15.50-£38.40) if odds between 3.6 and 7.4 0.4% (£4 ~ liability £26-£40) if odds between 7.5 and 11 Although the B365 draw odds posted above at 6.5, the available Betfair odds at k/o were 8, so should have been £4 at 8.0 (libility £32) rather than laying £10 at 6.5 Have deducted the 5% commission so yield will reflect this also. A1ehouse LTDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£1,003.80Total Staked£4.00Average Liability£32.00Number of Bets1Winning Bets1Losing Bets0Strike Rate100.00%Yield95.00%P/L less 5% Comm£3.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 10, 2009 Author Share Posted April 10, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Game for today and plenty more this weekend: Current Betfair odds you can lay the draw for 6.4 TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority HomeTeamForm AwayTeamForm HeadToHead B365H B365D B365A 10/04/2009 League 1 Peterboro Cheltenham 91.24% 8 21 WLWWWWWW 10 LdlWWdDd Peterboro:2(1) Cheltenham:0(0) Draws:1(0) 1.28 5.25 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 10, 2009 Author Share Posted April 10, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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