Ayr 19/02

[stewartd14]

Selections in here :ok

[stewartd14]

Re: Ayr 19/02 ********************NAP SELECTION************************ Race: 16.15 Ayr Selection: Panama at Once As I mentioned, I had part ownership in this horse last year but unfortunately he was plagued by injury problems and didnt run. Sod's law that almost as soon as the share period ended, he regained full fitness and has run like we knew he was capable of the last twice. These last two runs have convinced me he is as good as I originally thought, and I have no problems with Napping this horse today. After 2 falls since returning from injury, Panama then ran at one of Joss Saville's favourite tracks, Newcastle and jumped like he did before he got injured. It was a joy to watch as he gained 1/2 a length out of the field at every fence. Fortunately, he had the speed and stamina to go with the jumping and came out of the fog to take the prize. He was 25/1 that day, but I can assure you he wasnt totally unfancied ! That was over 3 miles on heavy going, and he shaped like a real stayer. I used to think 3 miles was his ideal trip, but after that run, I began to wonder whether he could stay further. The trainer, Joss Saville, obviously felt the same was, as next time he was sent to Bangor for a competitive 3m 6f slog in the mud. It was hard work for them all that day, but Panama ran with a great deal of promise, staying on to be 2nd. I think that the trip was just a bit too far considering the heavy ground, but I wouldnt rule out him staying it in the future when the going is firmer. Back on to the race tomorrow, and I really believe Panama can go in again. He has gone up 9 lb in the ratings, but I dont feel that is enough to stop him winning. He drops back down to 3 miles and yet again takes his chance on heavy ground. He has already proved he enjoys the stamina sapping tests, so I have no worries about him getting home tomorrow. I also fear that a few of his rivals will struggle to show their true form inthe conditions, and that makes Panama stand out even more as a bet. If any more positives were needed, Denis O Regan provides that final convincer. You cant take anything away from Tom Messenger who rode Panama brilliantly the last twice, but having O Regan on board convinces me that Joss Saville expects this horse to go very close again tomorrow. Something Silver may represent good value as a saver. He enjoys the heavy ground and in my opinion, will stay this trip with relative ease. Advice 8pt win Panama at Once @ SP 2pt win Something Silver @ SP Race: 14.40 Ayr Selection: Presque Perdre As I already eluded to, this looks a tough day's racing, and the NB also comes from the Ayr card. Trained by Gary Moore, I am hoping that Presque Perdre can prove too classy for his rivals in this poor class 5 maiden hurdle. Aftr analysing the race, I have significant doubts marked down against some of the market leaders, and I make the selection decent value. I have discounted: ---------------------------------------------------------------- Beau Regard ( Lay off, form) Cassius (Inconsistent, no value unless >10.0) Kings Guard (Form) Mister Marker (Form) Parkett Hill Scolboa Music Man (Capable but too short) Stormin Exit (Going) Lets go Girls (Form) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ That instantly rules out over half the field for me, and it left me with six horses to analyse thoroughly. After doing that, I wrote down the prices I would be willing to take for each runner, and the value selection at over 10/1 looks to be Presque Perdre. The odds I would take for my shortlist of 6 are as follows: ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Bracken Lad ...... 5/1 (Shown good form on ground but is he good enough ?) Rowdy Rampage ...... 20/1 (A bit of an unknown, Irish run has to be respected but trainer isnt renowned for bringing winners across) Sirkeel ..... 11/2 (3 solid runs on similar going, cant be discounted. Whether he can win though is another matter. Should place) Toms Last Euro ........ 9/1 (Run well in some competitive races across in Ireland, looks exposed though) Dancing Dik ....... 25/1 (Tricky to analyse, unknown quantity but I cant back him at anything shorter than 20-25/1) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- That leaves us with the selection, Presque Perdre, who I have as a 4/1 shot on my book, and 9-10/ looks as if it will be available. This horse showed very little for Kim Reveley on the flat or over jumps until round about this time last year. It was then that the penny seemed to drop and he picked up some place prize money in some poor novice races. He couldnt get a win on the board, but he actually began to show some interest in the game. Unfortunately, he was then sidelined for 10 months of last year, and when he made his re-appearance he was running for trainer Gary Moore, someone whom I repsect very highly. However, without avoiding the point, he flopped and finished last of 7. Due to that flop, he was then sent off 40/1 for his 2nd run, and it was clear that his 1st run had brought him on a lot. He obviously wasnt fit for his previous effort, and showed what he was capable of next time out. He defied the odds and finished a very respectable 2nd in a similar race to today's. The form of that race is difficult to assess, but the 3rd is actually entered for the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. The horse in question, is Door Boy. All in all, to me, Presque Perdre looks like the value bet. Every horse in this race has its price though, and I wouldnt put anyone off backing any of the shortlisted horses if the price is right. Advice 2.5 pts EW Presque Perdre @ SP :hope:ok Good luck everyone