Over 4.5 goals using poisson

[zorzak]

OK, so I'll be backing over 4.5 goals using poisson distribution. I've been using this system for over/under 2.5 goals for 3 months with decent success, but never used it for 4.5 goals. The system is very simple. I calculate the average goal expectancy for the match just by calculating the average goals scored by both teams per match, suming it up and dividing by 2. -------------------------------------------------- EXAMPLE: Chelsea plays Newcastle at home and their HOME goal difference is let's say 20:5 in 10 matches and Newcastle's AWAY goal difference is 10:15 in 9 matches. Goal expectancy: ((20+5)/10+(10+15)/9)/2= 2.638 --------------------------------------------------- I then enter this into a poisson calculator and look what the chances of (in this case) 5 goals or more occuring are. Then I just divide 100 with it to get the odds. I will only bet in leagues when at least 15 matches have been played. I will only bet on games with 25% or more edge (according to the calculator). Starting bank: 100€ Bookmaker (exchange): Betfair, Betdaq Stake size: 4€

[zorzak]

Re: Over 4.5 goals using poisson Bet no. 1: Villareal-Numancia @ 6.6 Bet no. 2: Bayern Munchen-Borussia Dortmund @ 4.846 (1.26 lay) :hope