The Truth About Grand National Top Weights

[Gingertipster]

Does the fact that no top weight since Red Rum has won the Grand National mean anything? Or is it just a coincidence? I have only form dating back to 1985 in my library so will just go from there. The average SP of the top weight in the last 23 years has been 15/1. This 15/1 is a bookies price, with a bookmakers mark up added to what they feel is it's true chance. So, let's take off just 1% from that price making it 18/1.It is surely not that surprising that there has been no winner. As just one win in that time would almost break even. I wonder what we'd find if taking the 10^th highest weighted horse or the 28^th. Would they be any different? I do not know as I have not done the working out. 893 horses ran in the Grand National. 135-893 = 15.1% of horses carried 11 stone or more in the Grand National. 758-893 = 84.9% of horses carried under 11 stone. Much more runners carried less than 11 stone. 18-92 = 19.56% of placed horses carried 11 stone or more. 74-92 = 80.43% of placed horses carried less than 11 stone. 18-135 = 13.33% of all those carrying 11 stone or more were placed. 74-758 = 9.76% of all those carrying less than 11 stone were placed. So those carrying more than 11 stone have a better strike rate of finishing in the first 4. 2-135 = 1.48% of those carrying 11 stones or more won the race. 21-758 = 2.77% of those carrying less than 11 stones won the race. So you could only reasonably expect those carrying more than 11 stone to have 2 more wins to their name. If just 1 horse is taken out of the 2006 Grand National (Numbersixvalverdie), the top weight would've won, Hedgehunter (2^nd 5/1). Take just 2 horses from the 2005 running (Hedgehunter & Le Coudray) for the top weight to have won, Royal Auclair (40/1 3rd). Take 4 from 2004, (first 3 home plus Le Coudray) Montys Pass (4^th 20/1). Take 3 from 2002, (Marlborough, Kingsmark (3rd 16/1) and Bindaree) What's Up Boys. Take 4 from 2001, (First 3 home plus Beau) Papillon (4^th 14/1). In 5 of the last 8 Nationals one of the two top weights were placed. Discuss. Ginge

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: The Truth About Grand National Top Weights I think all statistics can be manipulated in a variety of ways to suit whichever argument x person wants to represent. It's up to the individual punter to interpret and represent the available information in whichever way they see fit. Is the important stat that 3.57% more horses carrying 11st+ have been placed during the sample period than those horses carrying less than 11st? Or is the important stat that 91.3% of the winners during the sample period carried less than 11st? Opinions will, no doubt, differ. Personally, I have a list of filters I apply to the Grand National field before deciding on any bet(s) I will be having. One of those is that I discount those horses carrying more than 11st, but that is my opinion. What's my opinion worth? Well I have backed 45.45% of the winners over the course of the last 11 runnings. But only 15.15% of my backed horses have won.... which is the most pertinent statistic :ok