Crouch Potato Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 The driving idea behind this one is to find matches where you think a favourite or marginal(ish) underdog will win against an opponent who has enough class to trouble them. This will then result in me taking my selection to win 2 sets to 1 in 3 set matches and 3 sets to 1 in grand slam matches. In the event that I think a rather big dog will win I will make a play on match odds only, meaning that all odds should be in the $3.50-$5.00 range. System will be for ATP only. Each bet will be for 20pts. Bet I: Verdasco (2.72) vs Tsonga (1.57). Pick: Verdasco 3-1 @ 6.50 Eskander Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Nice start:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Nice start CP :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted January 28, 2009 Author Share Posted January 28, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Cheers chaps. Unfortunately the yield is only going down from here, but hopefully profits will keep increasing. I've been keeping a semi-keen eye on this idea for the last few months and it's looked promising, so hopefully it wasn't just a short term trend. I'm also looking at this for the WTA, but with an altered framework that still needs a bit more work. Bets: 1 Wins: 1 Staked: 20 Returned: 130 Profit: +110 S/R: 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted January 29, 2009 Author Share Posted January 29, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Bet II: Federer (1.15) vs Roddick (7.2) Pick: Federer 3-1 @ 3.80 Sportingbet AU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted January 30, 2009 Author Share Posted January 30, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Bet III: Verdasco (7) vs Nadal (1.16) Pick: Verdasco to win @ 7.00 (Betfair) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted January 30, 2009 Author Share Posted January 30, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks A couple of pretty bad days has sent this system moving in the wrong direction: Bets: 3 Wins: 1 Staked: 60 Returned: 130 Profit: +70 S/R: 33.33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted January 30, 2009 Author Share Posted January 30, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Sometimes when analysing the prospects for a 3-1, you develop a feeling that another score would be a stronger bet and that is the case here. Was leaning towards Federer 3-1 (or even 3-2) but after Nadal's epic match last night I feel that Federer may very well take advantage by winning in straight sets. Certainly for me that is where the value is. Bet IV: Roger Federer (1.70) v Rafael Nadal (2.40) Pick: Roger Federer 3-0 @ 6.00 Eskander Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Whilst avoiding the WTA, I never said I'd avoid ATP doubles (though I don't expect to bet very often). Bet V: Bryan/Bryan (1.35) v Bhupathi/Knowles (3.70) Pick: Bryan/Bryan 2-1 @ 4.10 Sportingbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Whilst avoiding the WTA, I never said I'd avoid ATP doubles (though I don't expect to bet very often). Bet V: Bryan/Bryan (1.35) v Bhupathi/Knowles (3.70) Pick: Bryan/Bryan 2-1 @ 4.10 Sportingbet As this was played out before the Fed final, I've made this Bet 4 and the Fed pick as bet 5. Good to see the Bryan boys taking us in the right direction again. Bets: 4 Wins: 2 Staked: 80 Returned: 212 Profit: +132 S/R: 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 1, 2009 Author Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks I have hated Federer since before I started this system, and I get the feeling I'm only going to hate him more with it. Bets: 5 Wins: 2 Staked: 100 Returned: 212 Profit: +112 S/R: 40% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 2, 2009 Author Share Posted February 2, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Bet VI: Marin Cilic (1.19) v Arnaud Clement (6) Pick: Marin Cilic 2-1 @ 4.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 2, 2009 Author Share Posted February 2, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Taking the lead from some of the Tennis Regulars in the Other Sports forum for this one; Bet VII: Teimuraz Gabashvili (2.48) v Mikhail Youzhny (1.66) Pick: Teimuraz Gabashvili 2-1 @ 5.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 2, 2009 Author Share Posted February 2, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Bet VIII: Martin Vassallo Arguello vs Oscar Hernandez Pick: Martin Vassallo Arguello 2-1 @ 4.42* Betfair odds adjusted to include commission Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Good luck CP :hope Regarding the Federer bet, surely if you had a strong feeling for a score other than 3-1 then that match didn't belong in this system? Just a thought Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 2, 2009 Author Share Posted February 2, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Good luck CP :hope Regarding the Federer bet, surely if you had a strong feeling for a score other than 3-1 then that match didn't belong in this system? Just a thought In this particular case, probably. A few days ago I was analysing the merits of Verdasco 3-1 against Stepanek, but decided to take Verdasco 3-0 instead because I had a feeling that Stepanek was rather buggered and that Verdasco was in strong enough form to take him in straight. The Federer match had similar overtones so that probably explains the bet, though given the class of players and the fact that Federer is a mental midget against Nadal, I should have stayed away. In fact, I think Federer is an awful betting subject, except for when he plays Murray on hardcourts in a best of 3 match! In any event, when you get into the groove of analysing a certain kind of bet, you sometimes get a feeling for a result other than what you normally take, because you are so used to considering the pro's and con's of each selection. Ultimately, I'm trying to stay open to that, though perhaps it doesn't belong in the system. Hard to say seeing as any such conclusion is reached as a result of analysis done for this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 3, 2009 Author Share Posted February 3, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks That was a horrible night. None of the matches even went to 3 sets (which IMO is a much better barometer than whether or not my selection wins) Bets: 8 Wins: 2 Staked: 160 Returned: 212 Profit: +52 S/R: 25% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 3, 2009 Author Share Posted February 3, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Bet IX: Simone Bolelli v Victor Troicki Pick: Bolelli 2-1 @ 4.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 3, 2009 Author Share Posted February 3, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Bet X: Sergey Stakhovsky v Dominik Hrbaty Pick: Stakhovsky 2-1 @ 4.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 3, 2009 Author Share Posted February 3, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks 1/2 with the smaller odds pick being the one that gets up. Bets: 10 Wins: 3 Staked: 200 Returned: 293 Profit: +93 S/R: 30% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 3, 2009 Author Share Posted February 3, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Bet XI: Dudi Sela v David Ferrer Pick: Dudi Sela 2-1 @ 5.54* Betfair odds reduced to post commission odds. ---------------------- Paddy Power Special! Will Crouch bother to stick with this system long enough to the point where he has to look up roman numerals to properly number his bet? Yes: 1.25 No: 4.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 3, 2009 Author Share Posted February 3, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Bet XII: Ernests Gulbis v Dmitry Tursonov Pick: Ernests Gulbis 2-1 @ 4.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 3, 2009 Author Share Posted February 3, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Bet XIII: Pablo Cuevas v Nicolas Lapentti Pick: Pablo Cuevas 2-1 @ 4.00 That's it for the night, hopefully a profitable result to wake up to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 3, 2009 Share Posted February 3, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Paddy Power Special! Will Crouch bother to stick with this system long enough to the point where he has to look up roman numerals to properly number his bet? Yes: 1.25 No: 4.00 :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 3, 2009 Author Share Posted February 3, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks 2/2 for the day's late games takes us to 3/4 for the day. If every day could have even half that strike rate, I'd be very happy. Bets: 13 Wins: 5 Staked: 260 Returned: 354 Profit: 194 S/R: 38.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted February 3, 2009 Share Posted February 3, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks 2/2 for the day's late games takes us to 3/4 for the day. If every day could have even half that strike rate, I'd be very happy. Bets: 13 Wins: 5 Staked: 260 Returned: 354 Profit: 194 S/R: 38.5% Good start and early days yet. Will follow this with interest, as Tennis betting is something that is starting to interest me. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Thanks Rule, and you are particularly right in respect to it being early days. This system could very easily reverse it's direction so am hoping for a solid block of steady, consistent progress without any major swings, which would certainly help my confidence in the system. Anyway enough rambling: Bet XIV: Maric Cilic v Florent Serra Pick: Cilic 2-1 @ 4.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks 2/2 for the day's late games takes us to 3/4 for the day. If every day could have even half that strike rate, I'd be very happy. Bets: 13 Wins: 5 Staked: 260 Returned: 354 Profit: 194 S/R: 38.5% Two typos here - it was actually 3/5, not 3/4. I'd still take a 30% strike rate though! Also, returned amount is 454, not 354. Profit figure was correct though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Bet XV: Juan Monaco v Potito Starace Pick: Juan Monaco 2-1 @ 4.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: Hawkeye Picks Bet XVI: Paul Capdeville v Daniel Gimeno-Traver Pick: Paul Capdeville 2-1 @ 4.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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