slapdash Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. If there is a player bad enough to just push all in on the first hand like that then you should fold.........if a player that bad is at your table then you have a big edge over him and there is no need to put yourself at risk like that in the first hand..........obviously if you are a terrible player then you should call! :welcome to PL, seanfaz! Interesting thought, but if his chips really are literally dead money, then if you pass up this opportunity, then you let everybody at the table get their hands on them. But if you call, then you're going to be around an 85% favourite to win all of his chips, and so on average you'll win about 70% of them, which is certainly a lot more than your fair share. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seanfaz Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Very true, i'm just saying my particular view point based on my tournament style and skill. Also i value my tournament life higher than than the 85% chance of doubling my starting stack in the first hand. Quite often and quite easily you can double your starting stack within the first hour or two without ever being all in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Theres no way im calling with 3 or more players all in on the first hand. About 50% for quadruple starting stack? I'l take it every time :ok If 9 players are all in before me and I have Aces, I call in a flash - I may have about a 20% shot of winning (and 80% chance of being eliminated from the tournament), but no-one at the table has a bigger chance than me, and 20% chance of a ten times starting stack? Yum yum - yes please..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. I agree you gotta play the odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. If 9 players are all in before me and I have Aces, I call in a flash - I may have about a 20% shot of winning (and 80% chance of being eliminated from the tournament), but no-one at the table has a bigger chance than me, and 20% chance of a ten times starting stack? Yum yum - yes please..... Anybody thought of compiling the "Punters Lounge Book Of Practical Poker Problems"? :unsure [by the way. Next year's Christmas poker puzzle: You're all-in pre-flop with As Ah against nine other players. What nine hands could they have that give you the lowest equity in the pot?] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Defintely 2 hands that contain an ace just to start with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Defintely 2 hands that contain an ace just to start with. Can I go for one hand containing two aces instead? (though I wouldnt be so bold as to say "definitely" :tongue2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Wow - amazed to see my first attempt gives me about 2.4% equity :loon Anyone beat that? Screen print upcoming.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. 2nd attempt 0.7% equity :loon screenshot on the way..... Making me wonder about the validity of my post in post 33..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. 0.788% is food for thought :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seanfaz Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Errrr you cant call after 9 other players go all in......survival is worth a hell of a lot. This is the FIRST hand!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Errrr you cant call after 9 other players go all in......survival is worth a hell of a lot. This is the FIRST hand!! If I knew I had a 20% chance of a 10xStarting Stack, I couldnt fold :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seanfaz Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Well you should.........consider this...... This situation happens in the first hand of the WSOP Main event with 5000 entrants, and the starting stack is 20,000chips. 80% of the time, you are eliminated on the first hand. 20% of the time you win the hand and have 200,000 chips out of the 100,000,000 in play. There are now 4991 players left and you are chip leader. This doesn't give you the advantage that you may expect, compared with surviving in the tournament. I feel that i haven't explained this brilliantly, so I will just add that no day 1 chip leader has ever gone on to win the main event, and I am not quoting that as a superstition, but just to show that the chip lead this early isn't actually that important at all. And winning this pot doesn't even guarentee that you will be the chip leader at the end of the day.....in fact many players would adopt a sort of cavalier approach, and others would play too tight on their cushion. So I would never face an 80% chance of elimination in the first hand, because that is what tournaments are all about at the end of the day - survival. And just a quick note.......i'm sure someone may respond by saying you have to play to win......but that is exactly what i'm saying......you have to play to win, and you can't win when you're out, which is what will happen a staggering 80% of the time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Assuming no edge for any player.... Before the tournament starts, you have a 1 in 5000 chance of winning. If you then go up to 200,000 in the first hand, then your chances of winning are now 1 in 500 - that has dramatically increased your chances of winning the tournament. (sure, there's still a 499 in 500 chance you wont win the tournament, but before it was a 4999 in 5000 chance you wont win) I prefer a 20% chance of a 1 in 500 chance in winning the tournament to a 100% chance of 1 in 5000 opportunity to win the tournament. If you dont take an edge with Aces pre flop, then where can you find an edge over your opponents? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seanfaz Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Ok......so we assume no edge for any player. In this theoretical situation I still think the point that you can't win if you're out is still valid. But yes you may be correct in the above example......but it is purely theoretical. Poker is a game of skill and not just mathematics. Players do have considerable edges over others and therefore their chances of winning can be vastly different. And I am still folding Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seanfaz Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Forgot to say - we also know we have a huge edge in skill over these players......they have all gone in on the first hand!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. How do you know they're not all sitting there with AA.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seanfaz Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Lol......how could they all be sitting there with AA? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAM Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. Ok......so we assume no edge for any player. In this theoretical situation I still think the point that you can't win if you're out is still valid. But yes you may be correct in the above example......but it is purely theoretical. Poker is a game of skill and not just mathematics. Players do have considerable edges over others and therefore their chances of winning can be vastly different. And I am still folding Save your breath Sean. Its a well worn path but welcome to my world ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seanfaz Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Why you would fold AA first hand. How do you mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.