Jump to content

Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild)


Recommended Posts

I've been asked a few times to start a thread in here for my system of football bets, rather than my usual random postings across different football threads :) So here I am .. First, a little bit about how I make my bets, although I'm not going to ramble into minute detail at the moment. Strategy: My basic process involves odds compilation for all the games I select, then simply putting my money wherever I see discrepincy in the listed odds. I have a ratings system (nothing too complicated) for teams in each league, which I use to project a 'final league table', and therefore a final points total for each side. The ratings system produces a score for each side, then looking at the remaining fixtures for each team, and the comparisons, I am able to project a final points total. From my final points calculations for each side I am able to make detailed comparisons of any matchup, using up to 10 years of results data, to create my home-draw-win percentages. We use a purely statistical approach to betting, and only use statistics that matter. I have no interest in head-to-head stats, or how badly a team played last week. Football is much more diverse than the simplicity of short-term form. The system is in full money tracking for myself and a few of my colleagues; this is not a paper trail. Stake plan: As simple as simple gets. I use a level stake of 1% for each selection, and recalculate the value of 1% every time the bank grows by 20% For the sake of this thread I will start now with a bank of 1000 points, staking 10 points on each bet to begin with. Once the bank reaches 1200 points, it will then go to 12 points per bet - but I will have this clearly marked at the time. Odds selection: As this is a hobby of mine, and not my full time job, I am neither willing nor able to spread my bank over 30 bookmakers to take advantage of the entire market odds. Once you see how many selections I produce on a Saturday/Sunday you will understand why I cannot trawl the market for individual odds. I'd love to, but it's not practical. 99% of my bets are placed at betfair.com. The only other bookie I really use is PlanetPinnacle. Following from this, it would be exceptionally cheeky of me to list my bets using the top price market odds (as lots of people do). It's unfair of me to do so, and would give a (possible) but unlikely outcome of my system. Bets and odds I list will be odds I have taken on Betfair or PlanetPinnacle. I may occationally place a bet or two at alternate bookies if the odds are sufficient, but very rarely. I'll keep the odds I list as fair and realistic as I can. Although I have my betfair commission at less than 5%, I'll try and calculate all of the results in here to a 5% commission. For the sake of fairness. Bet type: There are three main types, which should cover about 99% of my total bet selection. Full Time(FT) bets Half Time(HT) bets and Over/Under 2.5 goals(O2.5 or U2.5) Although I might, but very rarely, post the occational HT/FT bet, or correct score. Lets go ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 65
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1000, +0 points) To get things started I will paste in my bets from Sunday, which were posted to this forum (link). I wasn't able to post my bets from Saturday on here, so it seems fair I start the system from this point. West Ham - Fulham West Ham @ 2.42 won HT West Ham @ 3.15 lost Over 2.5 @ 2.4 won Spurs - Pompey Pompey @ 5.9 lost Ht Draw @ 2.4 won Ht Pompey @ 6.00 lost Under 2.5 @ 1.91 won Atalanta - Inter HT Atalanta @ 6 won HT Inter @ 2.62 lost Cagliari - Udinese Draw @ 3.3 lost HT Draw @ 2.2 lost Over 2.5 @ 2.16 lost Catania - Bologna Draw @ 3.3 lost Catania @ 2.06 lost HT Catania @ 2.86 lost Chievo - Napoli Napoli @ 2.38 lost Draw @ 3.3 lost HT Napoli @ 3.25 lost Under 2.5 @ 1.75 lost Lazio - Juventus Juve @ 2.4 lost Draw @ 3.35 won HT Juve @ 3.3 lost Lecce - Genoa Genoa @ 3.3 won Draw @ 3.2 lost HT Draw @ 2.14 won HT Genoa @ 3.9 lost Under 2.5 @ 1.76 won Sampdoria - Palermo Palermo @ 5.4 won Draw @ 3.4 lost HT Draw @ 2.2 lost HT Palermo @ 5.7 won Over 2.5 @ 2.3 lost Torino - Roma Draw @ 3.35 lost HT Roma @ 2.94 lost Under @ 1.91 won Almeria - Athletico Madrid Draw @ 3.65 won Under 2.5 @ 2.06 won Ath Bilbao - Valencia Draw @ 3.55 lost Under 2.5 @ 1.99 lost Getafe - Santander Draw @ 3.55 lost HT Draw @ 2.24 lost Under @ 1.8 won Malaga - Espanyol Malaga @ 2.14 won HT Malaga @ 2.88 won Over 2.5 @ 2.12 won Real Madrid - Osasuna HT Draw @ 3.00 lost HT Osasuna @ 11.00 won Under 2.5 @ 2.48 lost Recreativo Huelva - Gijon Gijon @ 4.00 lost HT Gijon @ 4.2 lost Under 2.5 @ 1.99 won Valladolid - Betis Valladolid @ 2.28 lost HT Draw @ 2.2 won Under 2.5 @ 1.88 lost Villarreal - Mallorca Villarreal @ 1.49 won Under 2.5 @ 2.32 won Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1138.73 Level Stake: 10 Total staked: 560 Number of bets:56 Winning bets: 23 Losing bets: 33 Strike rate: 41.07% Yield: 24.77% Profit (or Loss): 138.73 Bets for Monday 19th to follow later this aftenoon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1170.58, +170.58 points)

I've been asked a few times to start a thread in here for my system of football bets, rather than my usual random postings across different football threads :) So here I am .. First, a little bit about how I make my bets, although I'm not going to ramble into minute detail at the moment. Strategy: My basic process involves odds compilation for all the games I select, then simply putting my money wherever I see discrepincy in the listed odds. I have a ratings system (nothing too complicated) for teams in each league, which I use to project a 'final league table', and therefore a final points total for each side. The ratings system produces a score for each side, then looking at the remaining fixtures for each team, and the comparisons, I am able to project a final points total. From my final points calculations for each side I am able to make detailed comparisons of any matchup, using up to 10 years of results data, to create my home-draw-win percentages. We use a purely statistical approach to betting, and only use statistics that matter. I have no interest in head-to-head stats, or how badly a team played last week. Football is much more diverse than the simplicity of short-term form. Lets go ...
Nice start. Can you give any clues as to how you can convert projected final league table placings into odds for forthcoming games, ie HT markets and unders / overs? I am not saying that you can't do it, just that I am struggling to see how you can make the link - I would be interested to learn more.......... Cheers SJ
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1170.58, +170.58 points)

Nice start. Can you give any clues as to how you can convert projected final league table placings into odds for forthcoming games, ie HT markets and unders / overs? I am not saying that you can't do it, just that I am struggling to see how you can make the link - I would be interested to learn more.......... Cheers SJ
Pretty simple really. Using my projected placings I take past league data to analyse how teams of certain strengths perform against each other. I then use that data to compile percentages and therefore odds. The under/over markets are similar. I compare goals records in games between the sides of the correct strength.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1170.58, +170.58 points)

Liverpool - Everton FT Liverpool @ 1.68 lost HT Liverpool @ 2.4 lost Over 2.5 @ 2.44 lost Yeovil - Leicester Draw @ 3.85 lost O2.5 @ 2.1 lost HT Draw @ 2.3 won
Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1101.08 Level Stake: 10 Total staked: 620 Number of bets:62 Winning bets: 24 Losing bets: 38 Strike rate: 38.7% Yield: 16.3% Profit (or Loss): 101.08
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1170.58, +170.58 points)

Strategy: My basic process involves odds compilation for all the games I select, then simply putting my money wherever I see discrepincy in the listed odds. I have a ratings system (nothing too complicated) for teams in each league, which I use to project a 'final league table', and therefore a final points total for each side. The ratings system produces a score for each side, then looking at the remaining fixtures for each team, and the comparisons, I am able to project a final points total. From my final points calculations for each side I am able to make detailed comparisons of any matchup, using up to 10 years of results data, to create my home-draw-win percentages. We use a purely statistical approach to betting, and only use statistics that matter. I have no interest in head-to-head stats, or how badly a team played last week. Football is much more diverse than the simplicity of short-term form. The system is in full money tracking for myself and a few of my colleagues; this is not a paper trail.
Always nice to see people use statistics over "Gut feeling", and stay strict on the path to salvation (or doom depending on how you interpret the statistics). Anyway, I'm curious to know which rating system you are using? I also wonder why you go from ratings to final points and then to odds, wouldn't it be easier to go from ratings to odds right away? Final points is generally far into the future, adding more uncertainty. Just a thought. My own statistical prediction model
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1170.58, +170.58 points)

L Orient v Southend FT Southend @ 3 lost HT Southend @ 3.55 lost U2.5 @ 1.96 won Peterborough v MK Dons HT Draw @ 2.38 won U2.5 @ 2.28 won League 2 later on if I can find time :)
Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1115.47 Level Stake: 10 Total staked: 670 Number of bets:67 Winning bets: 27 Losing bets: 40 Strike rate: 40.3% Yield: 17.23% Profit (or Loss): 115.47 Also made six units (mostly from Exeter winning) in League two, but I couldn't get on here in time to list them as I was at work. Note to self - be more organised :) Doesn't look like there are any games of interest on until Friday.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1170.58, +170.58 points) SPL Celtic v Hibernian Celtic @ 1.33 HT Celtic @ 1.83 O2.5 @ 1.74 Aberdeen v Rangers Rangers @ 1.94 HT Rangers @ 2.66 Dundee United v St Mirren Lay Dundee United @ 1.77 (=bet @ 2.3) Lay HT Dundee United @ 2.5 (=bet @ 1.65) O2.5 @ 2.38 Hearts v Inverness CT Hearts @ 1.67 HT Hearts @ 2.34 O2.5 @ 2.24 Motherwell v Falkirk Motherwell @ 1.97 HT Draw @ 2.28 U2.5 @ 1.9

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1170.58, +170.58 points) ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP Blackpool v Birmingham Blackpool @ 4.1 Lay HT Birmingham @ 2.84 (=bet @ 1.54) U2.5 @ 1.76 ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE Bristol Rovers v Colchester Colchester @ 2.98 HT Colchester @ 3.6 U2.5 @ 2.16 Cheltenham v Brighton Lay Brighton @ 3.2 (=bet @ 1.46) HT Cheltenham @ 3.35 Leeds v Peterborough Peterborough @ 3.5 HT Peterborough @ 4.1 U2.5 @ 2.12 Leicester v Huddersfield Leicester @ 1.69 HT Leicester @ 2.36 U2.5 @ 2.06 Northampton v Crewe Lay Northampton @ 1.86 (=bet @ 2.16) HT Crewe @ 5.1 U2.5 @ 2.04 Oldham v Stockport U2.5 @ 2.00 Scunthorpe v L Orient Draw @ 4.2 U2.5 @ 2.16 Southend v Yeovil Southend @ 2.08 HT Southend @ 2.78 O2.5 @ 2.12 Tranmere v Carlisle Draw @ 3.45 O2.5 @ 2.16 Walsall v Hereford Walsall @ 2.16 HT Walsall @ 2.88

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1170.58, +170.58 points) ENGLAND LEAGUE TWO Accrington S v Barnet Barnet @ 3.85 HT Draw @ 2.26 U2.5 @ 2.00 Bournemouth v Wycombe Lay Bournemouth @ 3.45 (=bet @ 1.41) HT Bournemouth @ 4.6 U2.5 @ 1.71 Bury v Aldershot Lay Bury @ 2.04 (=bet @ 1.96) HT Draw @ 2.32 U2.5 @ 2.00 Chesterfield v Morcambe Morcambe @ 4.9 HT Draw @ 2.42 Dag and Red v Rochdale Lay Dag and Red @ 2.46(=bet @ 1.69) Ht Rochdale @ 3.8 U2.5 @ 2.16 Gillingham v Exeter Lay Draw @ 3.4 (=bet @ 1.42) HT Exeter @ 4.7 U2.5 @ 1.89 Grimsby v Rotherham Rotherham @ 2.62 Lincoln v Chester Draw @ 3.8 U2.5 @ 2.02 Luton v Bradford Draw @ 3.45 HT Luton @ 3.8 U2.5 @ 1.96 Macclesfield v Brentford Brentford @ 2.38 HT Brentford @ 2.96 Notts Co v Port Vale Lay Notts Co @ 2.04 (=bet @ 1.96) HT Port Vale @ 4.8 Shrewsbury v Darlington Lay Shrewsbury @ 2.48 (=bet @ 1.676) Darlington @ 3.9

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1170.58, +170.58 points) Airdrie Utd v Dundee Lay Airdrie @ 2.74 (=bet @ 1.575) O2.5 @ 2.7 Clyde v Ross Co Lay Clyde @ 2.74 (=bet @ 1.575) O2.5 @ 2.26 Morton v Livingston Draw @ 3.6 QotS v Partick Lay QotS @ 2.68 (=bet @ 1.595) O2.5 @ 2.37

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1170.58, +170.58 points) ITALY SERIE A Juventus v Fiorentina Juventus @ 1.81 Lay HT Draw @ 2.26 (=bet @ 1.794) O2.5 @ 2.12 Reggina v Chievo Lay Chievo @ 4.4 (=bet @ 1.294) HT Draw @ 2.16 SPAIN LA LIGA Villarreal v Osasuna Villarreal @ 1.67 HT Villarreal @ 2.24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1115.47, +115.47 points) SPL Celtic v Hibernian Celtic @ 1.33 won HT Celtic @ 1.83 won O2.5 @ 1.74 won Aberdeen v Rangers Rangers @ 1.94 lost HT Rangers @ 2.66 lost Dundee United v St Mirren Lay Dundee United @ 1.77 (=bet @ 2.3) lost Lay HT Dundee United @ 2.5 (=bet @ 1.65) won O2.5 @ 2.38 won Hearts v Inverness CT Hearts @ 1.67 won HT Hearts @ 2.34 won O2.5 @ 2.24 won Motherwell v Falkirk Motherwell @ 1.97 lost HT Draw @ 2.28 lost U2.5 @ 1.9 won ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP Blackpool v Birmingham Blackpool @ 4.1 won Lay HT Birmingham @ 2.84 (=bet @ 1.54) won U2.5 @ 1.76 won ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE Bristol Rovers v Colchester Colchester @ 2.98 lost HT Colchester @ 3.6 lost U2.5 @ 2.16 won Cheltenham v Brighton Lay Brighton @ 3.2 (=bet @ 1.46) won HT Cheltenham @ 3.35 won Leeds v Peterborough Peterborough @ 3.5 lost HT Peterborough @ 4.1 lost U2.5 @ 2.12 lost Leicester v Huddersfield Leicester @ 1.69 won HT Leicester @ 2.36 lost U2.5 @ 2.06lost Northampton v Crewe Lay Northampton @ 1.86 (=bet @ 2.16) lost HT Crewe @ 5.1 lost U2.5 @ 2.04 lost Oldham v Stockport U2.5 @ 2.00 lost Scunthorpe v L Orient Draw @ 4.2 lost U2.5 @ 2.16 lost Southend v Yeovil Southend @ 2.08 lost HT Southend @ 2.78 lost O2.5 @ 2.12 lost Tranmere v Carlisle Draw @ 3.45 lost O2.5 @ 2.16 won Walsall v Hereford Walsall @ 2.16 lost HT Walsall @ 2.88 won ENGLAND LEAGUE TWO Accrington S v Barnet Barnet @ 3.85 lost HT Draw @ 2.26 lost U2.5 @ 2.00 won Bournemouth v Wycombe Lay Bournemouth @ 3.45 (=bet @ 1.41) lost HT Bournemouth @ 4.6 won U2.5 @ 1.71 lost Bury v Aldershot Lay Bury @ 2.04 (=bet @ 1.96) lost HT Draw @ 2.32 lost U2.5 @ 2.00 lost Chesterfield v Morcambe Morcambe @ 4.9 won HT Draw @ 2.42 won Dag and Red v Rochdale Lay Dag and Red @ 2.46(=bet @ 1.69)lost Ht Rochdale @ 3.8 won U2.5 @ 2.16 lost Gillingham v Exeter Lay Draw @ 3.4 (=bet @ 1.42) won HT Exeter @ 4.7 lost U2.5 @ 1.89 won Grimsby v Rotherham Rotherham @ 2.62 lost Lincoln v Chester Draw @ 3.8 won U2.5 @ 2.02 won Luton v Bradford Draw @ 3.45 won HT Luton @ 3.8 won U2.5 @ 1.96 lost Macclesfield v Brentford Brentford @ 2.38 lost HT Brentford @ 2.96 lost Notts Co v Port Vale Lay Notts Co @ 2.04 (=bet @ 1.96) lost HT Port Vale @ 4.8 lost Shrewsbury v Darlington Lay Shrewsbury @ 2.48 (=bet @ 1.676) lost HT Darlington @ 3.9 lost SCOTLAND DIVISION ONE Airdrie Utd v Dundee Lay Airdrie @ 2.74 (=bet @ 1.575) lost O2.5 @ 2.7 lost Clyde v Ross Co Lay Clyde @ 2.74 (=bet @ 1.575) lost O2.5 @ 2.26 lost Morton v Livingston Draw @ 3.6 won QotS v Partick Lay QotS @ 2.68 (=bet @ 1.595) won O2.5 @ 2.37 won ITALY SERIE A Juventus v Fiorentina Juventus @ 1.81 won Lay HT Draw @ 2.26 (=bet @ 1.794) won O2.5 @ 2.12 lost Reggina v Chievo Lay Chievo @ 4.4 (=bet @ 1.294) lost HT Draw @ 2.16 won SPAIN LA LIGA Villarreal v Osasuna Villarreal @ 1.67 lost HT Villarreal @ 2.24 won Disappointing day 83 bets 36 winners +22.3945 Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1137.865 Level Stake: 10 Total staked: 1500 Number of bets:150 Winning bets: 63 Losing bets: 87 Strike rate: 42% Yield: 9.191% Profit (or Loss): 1137.865 Knackered, and just in from work. I'll check the sums again in the morning before I put up Sundays bets. If anyone spots any mistakes please PM me and I'll correct it..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1115.47, +115.47 points) SCOTLAND PREMIER LEAGUE Kilmarnock v Hamilton Kilmarnock @ 1.97 HT Draw @ 2.2 U2.5 @ 1.75 ITALY SERIE A Bologna v AC Milan Draw @ 3.7 U2.5 @ 1.93 Genoa v Catania Lay Draw @ 3.75 (=bet @ 1.36) Ht Genoa @ 2.38 O2.5 @ 2.25 (lay under @ 1.8) Inter v Sampdoria Inter @ 1.51 HT Inter @ 2.08 O2.5 @ 2.04 Lazio v Cagliari Lazio @ 1.71 HT Lazio @ 2.44 O2.5 @ 2.1 Lecce v Torino Lecce @ 2.32 HT Draw @ 2.12 Napoli v Roma Lay Roma @ 2.8 (=bet @ 1.556) Lay HT Roma @ 3.6 (=bet @ 1.385) Palermo v Udinese Draw @ 3.45 Siena v Atalanta Lay Atalanta @ 3.35 (=bet @ 1.426) O2.5 @ 2.44 SPAIN LA LIGA Almeria v Ath Bilbao Lay Almeria @ 2.22 (=bet @ 1.82) U2.5 @ 1.8 Getafe v Gijon Gijon @ 4.7 Lay HT Getafe @ 2.74 (=bet @ 1.575) U2.5 @ 1.95 Malaga v Atl Madrid Malaga @ 3.00 HT Malaga @ 3.65 Mallorca v Valencia Draw @ 3.45 HT Draw @ 2.36 U2.5 @ 2.14 Real Madrid v Deportivo Draw @ 5.00 U2.5 @ 2.5 Rec De Huelva v Betis Red De Huelva @ 2.72 Sevilla v Santander Sevilla @ 1.68 Valladolid v Espanyol Valladolid @ 2.12 HT Draw @ 2.32 U2.5 @ 1.91

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1115.47, +115.47 points) Sunday appears to have been horrible in the extreme :) I'll tot them all up later on, but first todays bets... ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE Sunderland v Fulham Fulham @ 3.6 HT Draw @ 2.16 U2.5 @ 1.72 Tottenham v Stoke Lay Tottenham @ 1.6 (=bet @ 2.67) HT Stoke @ 7.2 West Brom v Man U Lay HT Man U @ 1.94 (=bet @ 2.06) Under @ 2.1 Portsmouth v Aston Villa Aston Villa @ 2.44 HT Aston Villa @ 3.25 U2.5 @ 1.82

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1115.47, +115.47 points) Barnsley v Ipswich Barnsley @ 2.94 HT Barnsley @ 3.7 U2.5 @ 2.91 Birmingham v Derby Birmingham @ 1.92 HT Birmingham @ 2.6 O2.5 @ 2.24 Blackpool v QPR Blackpool @ 2.7 HT Blackpool @ 3.6 Charlton v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace @ 2.74 Lay HT Charlton @ 3.8 (=bet @ 1.36) U2.5 @ 2.02 Norwich v Southampton Draw @ 3.65 HT Southampton @ 4.8 U2.5 @ 2.00 Nottingham Forest v Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday @ 3.9 Plymouth v Bristol CIty Plymouth @ 2.64 HT Plymouth @ 3.5 U2.5 @ 1.76 Reading v Wolves Lay Reading @ 2.1 HT Wolves @ 4.4 U2.5 @ 2.2 Sheffield United v DOncaster SHeffield United @ 1.78 HT SHeffield United @ 2.42 Swansea v Preston Lay Swansea @ 1.98 (=bet @ 2.02) HT Preston @ 4.8 U2.5 @ 1.89 Watford v Burnley Burnley @ 2.96 HT Burnley @ 3.6 u2.5 @ 2.02

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1115.47, +115.47 points) Bristol Rovers v Cheltenham Lay Bristol Rovers @ 1.87 (=bet @ 2.15) Lay HT Bristol ROvers @ 2.6 (=bet @ 1.625) U2.5 @ 2.14 COlchester v Northampton HT Colchester @ 2.72 U2.5 @ 1.92 Hartlepool v Carlisle Draw @ 3.6 HT Draw @ 2.32 U2.5 @ 2.00 Hereford v Milwall Lay Hereford @ 3.15 (=bet @ 1.465) HT Hereford @ 4.00 O2.5 @ 2.14 Leeds v Southend Lay Leeds @ 1.5 (=bet @ 3.00) HT Draw @ 2.6 U2.5 @ 2.42 Leicester v Southend HT Leicester @ 1.94 MK Dons v L Orient MK Dons @ 2.02 Swindon v Walsall Walsall @ 3.7 HT Walsall @ 4.1 Tranmere v Stockport Draw @ 3.5 Yeovil - Huddersfield Yeovil @ 3.9 HT Yeovil @ 4.5

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...