AJ Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Was certain to call the first push, but what about now ? Let it go or call ? PokerStars Game #24050908691: Tournament #134997662, $5.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2009/01/19 1:51:32 ET Table '134997662 1' 10-max Seat #5 is the button Seat 1: Deja (2600 in chips) Seat 3: jimw64 (1325 in chips) Seat 4: BrakalIl (1300 in chips) Seat 5: Jamessdean (2270 in chips) Seat 6: epicedium (775 in chips) Seat 7: asjohnstone (2905 in chips) Seat 8: TKarnes (605 in chips) Seat 9: gunclaps (770 in chips) Seat 10: R3M1 (2450 in chips) is sitting out Deja: posts the ante 15 jimw64: posts the ante 15 BrakalIl: posts the ante 15 Jamessdean: posts the ante 15 epicedium: posts the ante 15 asjohnstone: posts the ante 15 TKarnes: posts the ante 15 gunclaps: posts the ante 15 R3M1: posts the ante 15 epicedium: posts small blind 75 asjohnstone: posts big blind 150 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to asjohnstone [9s 9h] TKarnes: raises 440 to 590 and is all-in gunclaps: folds R3M1: folds Deja: folds jimw64: folds BrakalIl: raises 695 to 1285 and is all-in Jamessdean: folds epicedium: folds asjohnstone: ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: DoN - two all ins, Call ?? Why were you certain to call the first shove? Pocket 9s isn't a huge hand, you're sitting relatively comfy, there's no need to risk ANY of your chips imo. I would have folded to the first shove, and definitely to the second Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happyhornet Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: DoN - two all ins, Call ?? Instinct tells me that this is a clear fold. Against one player you are probably racing against two Broadway cards, against two...I'm fairly sure that you are behind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: DoN - two all ins, Call ?? I'd fold. You know the general tendencies of the players better than me, but I'd expect the reraiser to have you well beaten with a higher pair quite often, and very rarely to have worse than two overcards (maybe the occasional 88 or 77). And then there's the original raiser to worry about. I'm not even sure that calling is +EV in terms of chips against their ranges, and I'm almost sure it's -EV in terms of tournament equity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: DoN - two all ins, Call ?? Its a fold for me too. If you are facing 3 broadway overcards then you are 45% to win and if you are facing 4 broadway overcards you are 33% to win. If there is a higher pair out there then you are obviously crushed. Might be possible that the first guy has 88 and below but the second guy must have something good. With your stack I'd be surprised if you had to win another hand to cash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: DoN - two all ins, Call ?? I'd also fold but like you would have called the original all in move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: DoN - two all ins, Call ?? I'd also fold but like you would have called the original all in move. Yes, I'd certainly call without the reraise. You'd be getting better than 2/1 on what can't be worse than an even money bet against his range. And more importantly, you'd only be risking a relatively small portion of your stack at those odds, which means the difference between chip EV and tournament EV is not nearly as much as it would be if you were risking all your chips. [if you believe ICM, it says you'd need about a 38% chance of winning to call the original shove.] By the way, I think people are probably overestimating how likely you are to cash without playing another hand. With nine players left, it could easily take some time to get rid of four of them, and the blinds are already 75/150 plus antes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: DoN - two all ins, Call ?? I'd fold to the 2nd shove but would be calling the initial one on it's own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: DoN - two all ins, Call ?? By the way, I think people are probably overestimating how likely you are to cash without playing another hand. With nine players left, it could easily take some time to get rid of four of them, and the blinds are already 75/150 plus antes. If we assume the short stack gets knocked out then there are 8 left with 3 having 4-5 BBs. Even if he does win the caller is now in a bit of trouble. I find this is when most mistakes happen, the shortstacks want to double up and its not close enough to the cash for them to play tight and hope the blinds catch another short stack out. So I reckon they could start pushing with anything in position and its not too far off being a forced call by the bigger stacks if they are on the blinds. I still think its possible to coast from here and cash. Either way I don't think a call in this situation would be a good decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted January 19, 2009 Author Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: DoN - two all ins, Call ?? Why were you certain to call the first shove? Pocket 9s isn't a huge hand' date=' you're sitting relatively comfy, there's no need to risk ANY of your chips imo. I would have folded to the first shove, and definitely to the second[/quote'] I'd call the first one because i'm almost certainly ahead of his pushing range which must be massive at this stage. It's almost any two cards into an unraised pot time for him. Someone needs to execute the small stacks at some point. I don't want to play a large pot with 9s, but an happy to put 25% of my chips on the line here. I think ICM supports this. Can I coast from here ? Not really, I need to pick up some chips, but I can do that from a blind steal or two. I folded here btw, the second guy had QQ, as it turned out I would have won the hand with a flopped set but that's not important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: DoN - two all ins, Call ?? Sorry guys, misread AJ's stack as 3905 :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seanfaz Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: DoN - two all ins, Call ?? Equity wise, the pot odds aren't good enough - fold. But yeah, you're definately calling the first shove there i think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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