Ascot 20/12/08

[Spooner]

Great card, Strong fancy in the Ladbroke. 14:45 - Ashkazar Ashkazar 2nd inthe Fred Winter's Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham back in March looks very good form, Beaten two lengths by Crack Away Jack who was only beaten 1L by Chomba Womba last time out. He is a three times winner over this distance in five runs. Trainer won this race back in 2006 with Acambo, Timmy Murphy was on board who is the jockey tomorrow. A cracking e/w bet at the moment, I can see him going off favourite. @ 13/2 Ladbrokes

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 1.05 Oedipe 5/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Anticipated return of trabolgan but another henderson horse I like in oedipe. Now he is not always reliable but at his best he is very useful and talented and he has shown that in a couple of decisive victories in his career. One at kempton showing he has no problem going right handed, indeed I think its a help to him, something like the racing post trophy could be a decent target for him at some point. His win at ain. was another impressive victory, beat three mirrors that day with the third a mile back. Sure he has gone up in the weights as a result and wasnt great lto in the hennessy but I felt the nature of that race wasnt really for him as it turned into a real test on ground perhaps not for him. This should be more likely for him and perhaps on more of a speed track, ground shouldnt be as tacky and if he can put a good round of jumping in, he has pretty decent claims for such an inform yard. 1.40 Binocular 5/4 pp bog 15 pts The switch to asc really suits binocular here, he has already won at asc. beating caj convincingly and his turn of foot really comes into play at this venue. At say a muddy chelt. like last week it may have been harder for him to truly see out the trip but I dont see that as a problem here. This speedier track suits his smart turn of foot, something he showed to great effect last season when thrashing celestial halo last season. He proved little more than his well being lto but still did the job efficiently enough, something some of his rivals today havent done yet this season. 2.10 Blazing Bailey 6/1 var 7.5 pts e.w BB is a horse I have often spoke in high admiration of. Not the easiest of rides at all and he needs a lot of work and encouragement but he is a classy act on his day and when with the right conditions. Lto he didnt have the right conditions, the race turned out to be a bit of a lottery for bb, a major stayer. They went no pace early and when mccoy kicked on, bb and a couple of others couldnt quite respond, a mistake two out didnt help either. Today with a pace setter like lough derg who normally goes a good clip, I cant see that being the case, stamina should be tested tomorrow and it will be interesting to see how both of henderson's cope with it, I have the odd doubt. The only thing Im a bit concerned with BB is that there are no blinkers on again today, he did improve with two victories at the end of last season with them and yet they have left them off so far and its possible he may need them. However the likely stamian test that shoudl be provided today by lough derg should help him today and I can see him, teh highest rated horse in the field, overturning the form with a few of these of lto. 2.45 Ashkazar 13/2 var bog 7.5 pts e.w See above in my ante post selection. Quite simply I see it very possible he is a CH contender and therefore off 147 today it should go fairly close if not win really. Competitive field but this one just has that class edge, afterall it was second to CAJ giving just two pounds and that is seen as a legitimate CH contender. Further improvement is very possible too and it could be another win in this race for connections that won it two years ago with acambo.

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08

2.45 Ashkazar 13/2 var bog 7.5 pts e.w See above in my ante post selection. Quite simply I see it very possible he is a CH contender and therefore off 147 today it should go fairly close if not win really. Competitive field but this one just has that class edge, afterall it was second to CAJ giving just two pounds and that is seen as a legitimate CH contender. Further improvement is very possible too and it could be another win in this race for connections that won it two years ago with acambo.

As quoted on the Morning Line, Crack Away Jack went on to win his next race under an official rating of 149 and was giving Ashkazar 2lbs (winning distance 2.5 lengths) in their race together. This maybe one of those handicap blips. :hope

[Spooner]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 14:10 - Punchestowns Very impressive at Cheltenham and made it look like he was up against a poor field but Punchestowns is just a very good horse, He beat Ballydub last time by 3½L then Ballydub went on to win a good race at Newbury by 5L, This is a big step up for him but I think he is more than capable of winning this. @ 7/2 Skybet

[tgc100969]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 1.05 Ascot Piraya Impressive record in France and highly tried last time out and not unfancied either at 20s. Probably will come on for the run and Timmy Murphy is an excellent jockey booking riding a David Pipe horse not owned by Johnson which is unusual. 20s at minute so have an e/w bet, I cant see it out of the places

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 If I could get proof that all is well with Ashkazar then I'd definitely have him on my side. Pipe's still a bit in and out for me and not all are running to form. If Ashkazar does, then he will take a lot of beating obviously.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 Havent got time to do a mass write up so i will make mine short & sweet. 12.30 Gwanako (Fancy this very strongly to beat My Petra who has never gone over this distance) E/W outsider Miss Mitch Could Fill In minor places at a nice price. 1.05 Fundamentalist E/W Won in October carrying 11-9 in a Class 2 Event and could easily go close again, Other E/W fancies Erics Charm, Alderburn & Dom D'Orgeval. 1.40 Crack Away Jack could overturn the form books on Chomba Womba in a patiently run race, Katchit hasnt been performing well on the gallops but could still suprise a few like he did at the festival earlier in the year. 2.10 Lough Derg seems to come to form in December and could quite easily turn his form round and run a big race, also won this race last year, Petitfour could also run a big race on his last performances and better off at the weights. 2.45 Ashkazar unlucky back in March to not win under top weight and shoul improve if coming back off his break, Khyber Kim if ridden patiently could easily win this, suprised last time out that he didnt improve when coming off the bridle (Rider did lose Irons Briefly) but should make a bold account today, Group Captain has a 100% Strike Rate over this G&D and is down in weight. 3.15 Romantic Bridge Sitting at the bottom of the weights could be a plus over this distance and this could help him get in the place money, Double Obsession is another who could place at nice odds.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 Has to be DUC DE REGNIERE for me in the 2.10. Get the feeling Punchestowns won't quite get home over 3m1f.

[Aykay1]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 210 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Ascot – Duc de Regniere ew @ 21/5 sportingbet<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

He won convincly enough last time out to suggest that Blazing Bailey and Pettifour will have their work cut out to reverse the form. Geraghty has chosen stablemate Punchestowns over this one which is a negative but Punchestowns has stamina to prove whilst Duc does not. McCoy is obviously an able replacement.

[Blair Boy]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 1.40 Binocular I Think the switch of the race to Ascot could be a bit of a blessing for him as he has previous winning form over the course and should find it easier going than Cheltenham, comments in today's paper which was mentioned on the morning line that Alan King has worries about the fitness of Katchit who has failed to find winning form this season, The Nicholls yard don't seem to be hitting the usual form at present who would usually have a runner who could show some danger. 13/8 Bet365

[PL2008]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 13:40 Ascot Binocular (FR) Impressive on his seasonal debut and should only get better. He won here to start the year. I like his odds (5/4) to finish the year with a win. 10pts to win @ 5-4 Bet365 BOG 14:45 Ascot Group Captain Hurdle debut for new yard looks goood for a big race here. He finished 2 lengths down in 3rd to Art Professor and Hibiki at Ascot. Form over hurdles when with trainer A King is 111542. 2pts ew @ 25-1 Bet365 BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 ERIC'S CHARM 1.05 Ascot. 0.5 points each way. Trip and ground are fine and has a weight to get involved in the finish if running to ability. Keeps going and going and so we'll always be in with a chance. Open race on weights and bare form alone, but when looking deeper into things we have a decent chance.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08

Havent got time to do a mass write up so i will make mine short & sweet. 12.30 Gwanako (Fancy this very strongly to beat My Petra who has never gone over this distance) E/W outsider Miss Mitch Could Fill In minor places at a nice price. 1.05 Fundamentalist E/W Won in October carrying 11-9 in a Class 2 Event and could easily go close again, Other E/W fancies Erics Charm, Alderburn & Dom D'Orgeval. 1.40 Crack Away Jack could overturn the form books on Chomba Womba in a patiently run race, Katchit hasnt been performing well on the gallops but could still suprise a few like he did at the festival earlier in the year. 2.10 Lough Derg seems to come to form in December and could quite easily turn his form round and run a big race, also won this race last year, Petitfour could also run a big race on his last performances and better off at the weights. 2.45 Ashkazar unlucky back in March to not win under top weight and shoul improve if coming back off his break, Khyber Kim if ridden patiently could easily win this, suprised last time out that he didnt improve when coming off the bridle (Rider did lose Irons Briefly) but should make a bold account today, Group Captain has a 100% Strike Rate over this G&D and is down in weight. 3.15 Romantic Bridge Sitting at the bottom of the weights could be a plus over this distance and this could help him get in the place money, Double Obsession is another who could place at nice odds.

1st Gwanako @ 2/1 :nana First one in the bag who i had a very very strong feeling about and i think 25/1 for the national looks a giveaway.

[Aykay1]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 :clap

[Tipster5000]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 Not sure what the price will be now maybe 20's :ok

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 According to Jim McGrath on the Morning Line :- ' Ladbrokes, who don't want you to back the winner, asked officials to increase the course safety limit for the Ladbroke Hurdle to get more runners in.' If this is true, it's sad that bookies go to these lengths to make racing more dangerous for the horses and jockeys, as well as being harder for the punter.

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08

1st Gwanako @ 2/1 :nana First one in the bag who i had a very very strong feeling about and i think 25/1 for the national looks a giveaway.

It's 150 on Betfair.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 Nice............:loon any idea on the place price???

[Aykay1]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 he's a very small horse, is only 5 years old and has yet to run, yet alone win over 3 miles - they are huge question marks for the National in my opinion. I wouldnt touch 25's at all but 150.0 might be worth a tickle.

[Trotter]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 1.40 Celestial Halo Can see him slipping the field and powering round on his own with the others looking at each other and leaving it too late to catch him.

[Trotter]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 2.10 Lough Derg Again, just like last year, he'll try and make all and hope to get enough of a lead not to be caught. It worked last year ! Ascot does seem to suit front runners.........

[Tipster5000]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 Thats my FTTS selection and i also think he will run a big race.

[Trotter]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 2.45 Squadron Hasn't got the class of some of these but he's a very likeable gutsy type and isn't too far behind the best of the second season hurdlers. If he's still in contention near the finish he can battle........

[stewartd14]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 A good days racing here, in perfect jumping ground. Henderson's record at this track certainly has to be taken into account when selections are made. 1.40 Katchit I very rarely back this horse, and I didnt expect to do so today. I always seem to try adn find something to beat this ultra game horse and it tends to backfire. However, today, I have to have him on my side. Of the rivals, I cant have Chomba Womba dropping back to 2m, despite Hendersons record at the track. He will surely be outpaced. Binocular is no doubt classy, but he won a mickey mouse race last time and hasnt been tested yet. Evens is far too short IMO. Not sure about the form of the Nicholls stable, but cant see Celestial Halo winning anyway. Crack Away Jack is a definite danger to the selection. Emma Lavelle is firing and this horse has shown he is capable. A speculative forecast maybe. Anyway, onto the selection, Katchit has had so many doubters in his time its unreal, but he just keeps producing the goods. He may be a lot more exposed than the others, but he has been there and done that. his jumping is perfect and I can see him gaining on the rivals His record at this distance is incredible and he is able to beat the best time and time again. No-one knows just how good this new crop are, but Katchit is value at 8/1. 8/1

[Spooner]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 ATR is buzzing today, Lets hope we get some winners. :ok

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 2.45 SENTRY DUTY Bolted up over C+D recently, clearly in good form, could have more to come after that run, just hope its dried out sufficiently. 12/1 EW (1,2,3,4)

[Aykay1]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 Stewart, I agree katchit is overpriced, just backed him each way :ok

[Spooner]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 Nice performence from Binocular.

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 Binocular :notworthythat was impressive!!!

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 20/12/08 It's a great card but for me a watching brief for future rather than a card to play on. Already spoke about Ashkazar but I also like Khyber Kim in the Ladbroke, just think he is overpriced - always hinted at the ability to win a big one. Looked in need of the run FTO. Trouble is, you're probably gonna have to be a Grade 1 performer to win this off his mark.