Winning Formula By BetBroker

[BetBroker]

The purpose of this thread is to test "famous" Kelly formula. It is said to be the most important formula in betting and investing. It is said to maximize the growth of your bankroll over the long term. How does it work ? If a home team has got odds = 2.0, we will only bet on the home team if we think it has a 50% chance or more. The greater advantage over bookmakers - the more money we will bet. If bookmaker estimated the chances for 50 % and We think its about 60 % We will bet some portion of our capital. If we think its more like 65% we will bet respectively more than if it was 60 %. If We think the chances are less than 50 % we will not bet. If we bet - we will get bankrupt over long period of time. This money management system practically eliminates the risk of ruin. It lowers the stakes during the periods of loss and increases them during winning streaks. The downside is that You have to estimate the probability of an event happening. In this case it won't be a problem because I will take care of calculating probabilities. Stakes will be calculated from Kelly formula. Good system without good picks is worthless. It will only defend us from immediate bankruptcy. However good system combined with valuable picks is like undefeated army marching against doomed enemies(bookmakers) ;). I will not try to convince You that this is a good system. I believe it will defend itself by generating good income. Thread is posted on some most popular betting forums (bettingadvice.com, goonersguide.com, punterslounge.com, bukmacherzy.com.pl) to be widely known and to exclude possible accusation of cheating. The testing period will last about 3-4 months or until we will get 1000 % from starting bank. Kelly's formula is very agressive, so we will use quarter-kelly. Simply bet a quarter of the amount suggested by formula. Starting bank will be 225 pounds, previously won on testing Kelly formula.

[tomahawk1984]

Re: Winning Formula By BetBroker Good luck! As someone who is new to sports betting I have been reading up on Kelly's Criterion and a practical, long term example will be very interesting. Watching with great interest :ok