Laying Strugglers At Home

[Lechero79]

So whilst I was driving about working this week, I thought of a system I'd like to trial. This will be strictly a paper trial at this moment, I have done no backtesting whatsoever. What I plan to do is lay teams at home who have less than 1 point per game average. The opponents must have greater than 1.25 points per game average, pretty simple really. For example you can lay Nottingham Forest at home to Sheffield United for a pretty low price on Tuesday, Forest have won 1 game only for ages, and only 2 at home/10 this season. All matches will have a liability of £50. This midweeks suggestions:- Lay Nottingham Forest v Sheffield United. Lay Woking v Rushden & Diamonds. Prices to be posted tomorrow.

[tomahawk1984]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home

So whilst I was driving about working this week, I thought of a system I'd like to trial. This will be strictly a paper trial at this moment, I have done no backtesting whatsoever. What I plan to do is lay teams at home who have less than 1 point per game average. The opponents must have greater than 1.25 points per game average, pretty simple really. For example you can lay Nottingham Forest at home to Sheffield United for a pretty low price on Tuesday, Forest have won 1 game only for ages, and only 2 at home/10 this season. All matches will have a liability of £50. This midweeks suggestions:- Lay Nottingham Forest v Sheffield United. Lay Woking v Rushden & Diamonds. Prices to be posted tomorrow.

Alright mate. Good luck with the new system. Would it be worth using points per home game and points per away game? I have some spreadsheets with that kind of stuff on if you want to have a look.

[Lechero79]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home Lay Forest @ 2.9 Lay Woking @ 3.25 Both for £50 liability.

[Lechero79]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home

Alright mate. Good luck with the new system. Would it be worth using points per home game and points per away game? I have some spreadsheets with that kind of stuff on if you want to have a look.

Cheers mate! I might well do this in the future - at the moment it's obviously a very simple system and I'm happy with that as it's not time consuming. But if it looks to have promise I might integrate home points into the calculation - essentially the basis of this system is to oppose poor sides at home (e.g. Forest are 2/4/4 from 10 this season yet you can lay @ 2.9 against Sheffield United who are one of the best teams in the division now Beattie is fit) so in this example Forest have 8/10 winning lays so it should be immensely profitable to lay at 2.9 against one of the better sides in the division.

[Lechero79]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home

Lay Forest @ 2.9 - WON Lay Woking @ 3.25 - WON Both for £50 liability.

Good start with 2/2 successful lays, a £48.54 profit :nana Lays - 2 Winning Lays - 2 Losing Lays - 0 Strike Rate -100% Start Bank - £1000 Current Bank - £1048.52

[tomahawk1984]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home

Lay Forest @ 2.9 Lay Woking @ 3.25 Both for £50 liability.

Great start :clap More to come I hope.

[Lechero79]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home

Great start :clap More to come I hope.

Thanks mate, I hope so! :ok

[Kamo]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home Good start mate will watch with interest :clap

[Lechero79]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home Weekend lays (only lay if you can lay at < 4.0) :- Lay SV Mattersburg v Austria Wien Lay FC Dender v Lokeren Lay Roeselaere v Anderlecht Lay Yeovil v Stockport Lay Hereford v Hartlepool Lay Morecambe v Darlington Lay Barnet v Gillingham Lay Grimsby v Shrewsbury Lay Fisher v Eastleigh Lay Valenciennes v Monaco Lay Le Havre v Lorient Lay FSV Frankfurt v FC Saint Pauli Lay Wuppertaler SV v Rot Weiss Erfurt Lay Werder Bremen II v Fortuna Dusseldorf Lay Cittadella v Brescia Lay Ascoli v Empoli Lay Vitesse v PSV Lay Arbroath v Peterhead Lay Queens Park v Raith Lay Elgin v East Stirling Lay Espanyol v Atletico Madrid Lay Cordoba v Rayo Vallecano Lay Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray Lay Kocaelispor v Gazientepspor Lay Airbus FC v TNS Lay Neath v Haverfordwest

[tomahawk1984]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home Good luck! Are you doing this along side your other system?

[Lechero79]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home

Good luck! Are you doing this along side your other system?

Cheers mate! Yeah I am, tho I am having a weekend off the other system as I'm really busy with work at the moment, normal service to be resumed next week. This is a really quick system to work out, it took me like 10-15 minutes to get the above lays.

[Lechero79]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home

Weekend lays (only lay if you can lay at < 4.0) :- Lay SV Mattersburg v Austria Wien - No lay, cannot get matched. Lay FC Dender v Lokeren @ 3.55 Lay Roeselaere v Anderlecht - No lay, cannot get matched. Lay Yeovil v Stockport @ 2.72 Lay Hereford v Hartlepool @ 2.48 Lay Morecambe v Darlington @ 3.05 Lay Barnet v Gillingham @ 3.35 Lay Grimsby v Shrewsbury @ 3.4 Lay Fisher v Eastleigh - No lay, cannot get matched. Lay Valenciennes v Monaco @ 2.72 Lay Le Havre v Lorient @ 2.66 Lay FSV Frankfurt v FC Saint Pauli @ 2.8 Lay Wuppertaler SV v Rot Weiss Erfurt @ 2.78 Lay Werder Bremen II v Fortuna Dusseldorf @ 3.85 Lay Cittadella v Brescia @ 3.6 Lay Ascoli v Empoli - No lay, cannot get matched. Lay Vitesse v PSV - No lay, cannot get matched. Lay Arbroath v Peterhead @ 3.0 Lay Queens Park v Raith - No lay, cannot get matched. Lay Elgin v East Stirling - No lay, cannot get matched. Lay Espanyol v Atletico Madrid - Not playing for some reason. Lay Cordoba v Rayo Vallecano @ 2.52 Lay Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray - No lay, cannot get matched. Lay Kocaelispor v Gazientepspor @ 2.6 Lay Airbus FC v TNS - Cannot lay Welsh league, lol. Lay Neath v Haverfordwest - Ditto

:hope

[Lechero79]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home

Weekend lays (only lay if you can lay at < 4.0) :- Lay FSV Frankfurt v FC Saint Pauli - LOST Lay Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray - WON

1/2 winning lays today, more tomorrow hopefully!

[Lechero79]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home Results so far, a very mixed bag.

Lay FC Dender v Lokeren - WON Lay Yeovil v Stockport - WON Lay Hereford v Hartlepool - WON Lay Morecambe v Darlington - LOST Lay Barnet v Gillingham - WON Lay Grimsby v Shrewsbury - LOST Lay Valenciennes v Monaco - LOST Lay Wuppertaler SV v Rot Weiss Erfurt - WON Lay Cittadella v Brescia - LOST Lay Arbroath v Peterhead - LOST Lay Cordoba v Rayo Vallecano - WON

[Lechero79]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home Sunday's Games:-

Lay Le Havre v Lorient - WON Lay Werder Bremen II v Fortuna Dusseldorf - LOST Lay Kocaelispor v Gazientepspor - WON

Overall 9/16 winning lays for the weekend, looking at the prices this will possibly be a small loss but I need to calculate before I can fully draw conclusions, will post P&L later.

[Lechero79]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home Lay Mons v Zulte Waregem Lay Doncaster v Wolves Lay Cheltenham v Walsall Lay Hyde United v Alfreton Lay Havant & Waterlooville v St Albans Lay Nimes v Bastia Lay OFI Heraklion v Panathinaikos Lay Panserraikos v PAOK Saloniki Lay Torino v Napoli Lay Chievo v Genoa Lay Piacenza v Pisa Lay Modena v Bari Lay Sparta v Heerenveen Lay Roda JC v Groningen Lay De Graafschap v Ajax Lay Falkirk v Celtic Lay Inverness v Aberdeen Lay Airdrie v St Johnstone Lay Alloa v Brechin Lay Stranraer v East Fife Lay Espanyol v Atletico Madrid Lay Mallorca v Sevilla Lay Osasuna v Getafe Lay Murcia v Celta Vigo

[Lechero79]

Re: Laying Strugglers At Home

Lay Mons v Zulte Waregem - WON Lay Doncaster v Wolves - WON Lay Cheltenham v Walsall - WON Lay Hyde United v Alfreton - WON Lay Havant & Waterlooville v St Albans - LOST Lay Nimes v Bastia - LOST Lay OFI Heraklion v Panathinaikos - WON Lay Panserraikos v PAOK Saloniki - WON Lay Torino v Napoli - LOST Lay Chievo v Genoa - WON Lay Piacenza v Pisa - LOST Lay Modena v Bari - WON Lay Sparta v Heerenveen - LOST Lay Roda JC v Groningen - WON Lay De Graafschap v Ajax - WON Lay Falkirk v Celtic - WON Lay Inverness v Aberdeen - WON Lay Airdrie v St Johnstone - WON Lay Alloa v Brechin - LOST Lay Stranraer v East Fife - WON Lay Espanyol v Atletico Madrid - WON Lay Mallorca v Sevilla - WON Lay Osasuna v Getafe - LOST Lay Murcia v Celta Vigo - POSTPONED

16/23 winning lays this weekend...need to check prices to work out P&L.