Punchestown - 07 Dec 2008

[RuleBritannia]

2:05 - John Duncan Memorial Chase (Grade 1) - Watson Lake E/W War of Attrition has to be a live contender, given how impressive he was on his reappearance, but you have to think, was he really that impressive??? as Kicking King was subsequently retired, Watson Lake had no chance after a horrible jump at the 6th or 7th fence and the other horse (I forget who), was an outsider. Noland has quality stamped all over him. His chase record isnt too shabby either. Won very very nicely LTO when demolishing FingerOnThePulse at Down Royal, who as we both know beat Barbers Shop in the Jewson. The heavy ground will hold no fears either, as he was successful on heavy against Polinamix and Rustarix (winner today at Sandown). Only slight fear is the non riding of Ruby Walsh. Mansony is held by Watson Lake, and a number of these horses on previous runs, and shouldnt pose a threat. The Listener is one of these who holds Mansony, when beating him into 2nd here last season, hacking up by the best part of 20 lengths. Mansony (2nd) and One Cool Cookie (3rd), both re-oppose but neither should pose any sort of threat and neither should reverse form. This is the only occasion though, that Robert Alner's stable star has won over 2 and a half miles and the opposition this year is so much hotter than last year. Ballistraw and Cane Brake should both be pulled up and not finish the race in this company. Neither have shown anything in the past to suggest they can compete at this level. Snowy Morning, a horse I always back, a horse I truly love but I have severe question marks over his run on Sunday amounting to anything. Perhaps needing the run LTO when a shortish price beaten favourite (Finished some way behind One Cool Cookie who finished 2nd). Ground itself will hold no fears as the muddier it gets, the more he feels at home, but I fear he won't have the turn of foot to compete with the big guns in this field, as 2 m 4f, even 3m are the bare minimum this horse requires. Newmill makes seasonal reappearance, and its been well over 3 years since he won any race over 2 miles, and been 2 and a half years since winning any chase contest at all. In summary, I would have Ballistraw, Cane Brake, One Cool Cookie and Newmill as horses I couldnt back at all. Mansony, The Listener and Snowy Morning could be backed e/w (depending upon odds and Market Support). 9/2 about The Listener is silly in my opinion. I don't think he can beat Noland and War of Attrition (or Watson Lake for that matter). Watson Lake, I reckon will go off closer to 7/1, rather than the best priced 12/1 currently on offer, and I will more than likely back him each way. War of Attrition and Noland, whilst they are both top class horses, neither are completely bombproof and with both sitting between 2/1 and 5/2 at the moment, it could be worth taking them on with Watson Lake