NMc106 Posted November 26, 2008 Share Posted November 26, 2008 Seems to be a few of these popping up recently so thought I'd jump on the bandwagon! Sorry for the crude title also!! Rules for selection: Not rules as such as they are merely just a guideline as to what I might select, if a prospect comes up I will still stick it up even if it doesn't match the rules entirely! - Bets will mostly be Non-Handicap races - With 6+ runners - Mixture of both Hurdles & Chases (For the time being) - No set type of bet but 90% will be Win & E/W I will start with a bank of 200pts with a level staking plan of 10pts per bet. Total Bets: 0 Total Staked: 0pts Total Returned: 0pts Strike Rate: 0/0 (0%) Longest Winning Streak: 0 Longest Losing Streak: 0 Previous Bank: 200pts New Bank: 200pts Here goes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted November 27, 2008 Author Share Posted November 27, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 12-25 Newbury Mewstone last ran 16 days ago in her hurdling debut under Paddy Brennan and won very comfortably to Kielder Rise. Steps up in distance though should cope as all her races have come on pretty testing ground. Over Sixty finished 2nd to Golan Way at Cheltenham lto. Beat American Trilogy in that race who is a pretty decent horse so is certainly a good prospect. Should cope with the increase in distance as she has looked pretty comfortable in her past outings. Carole’s Legacy won both her bumpers including a good quality class 1 at Aintree in which she beat Over Sixty by 6L and also has an extra 3lbs in her favour here today. Was 2nd on hurdling debut at the start of the month being comfortably beaten by Shoreacres. Suggestion: Over Sixty – Win @ 10/11 Ladbrokes 13-20 Uttoxeter Starburst Diamond last ran 24 days ago (4th) at Warwick getting beat by winner Officier De Reserve by 11½L. Likes the ground soft and won at this distance in the past. Could put in a big run with Jack Doyle offsetting the penalty by 3lbs. Cast Cada should improve for last run and step up back to 3 miles should be perfect. Ground is about right and could go for a place at least. Comhla Ri Coig has only the one run over hurdles with it coming 19 days ago where he finished 3 at Kelso. Will stay the distance and if the pace isn’t fast he could have a good chance. Gypsy George is a course & distance winner who is a chase horse though drops back to hurdles for the 1st time. Won a class 2 chase lto here at Uttoxeter off a mark of 127. Has bags of ability if he takes to the hurdles and should be in good form despite a break of 208 days. Suggestion: Comhla Ri Coig – E/W @ 7/1 BlueSQ Todays Picks Newbury 12-25 - Over Sixty Win @ 10/11 Uttoxeter 13-20 - Comhla Ri Coig E/W @ 7/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted November 27, 2008 Author Share Posted November 27, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Well not a good start with Over Sixty finishing 2nd and Comhla Ri Coig not placing. Results Overview: Over Sixty - Win - 2nd (-10pts) Comhla Ri Coig - E/W - 4th (-10pts) So all in all a pretty poor start! Only way is up though I suppose! Total Bets: 2 Total Staked: 20pts Total Returned: 0pts Strike Rate: 0/2 (0%) Longest Winning Streak: 0 Longest Losing Streak: 2 Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 180pts Profit/Loss at Advised: -20pts Profit/Loss at SP: -20pts Was in a rush this morning (afternoon!) as I slept in, but will be better laid out etc in the future!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tipster5000 Posted November 27, 2008 Share Posted November 27, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Bare in mind its been a hard days racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted November 27, 2008 Share Posted November 27, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Good luck with this Nick :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted November 27, 2008 Author Share Posted November 27, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Yeah so iv noticed Tipster! Appreciated Fin! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted November 27, 2008 Author Share Posted November 27, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Yesterdays racing overview (Newbury): Im going to try and pick a meeting each day and do a sort of review of the races to see who stood out and who ran quite well. Once again I shall stick to Non-Handicap races for the time being and see how it goes. 12-25 – I had shortlisted Over Sixty, Carole’s Legacy & Mewstone before the race, before eventually plumping for Over Sixty. Mewstone lead for the best part before just stopping suddenly. Over Sixty & Carole’s Legacy were far too good for the rest with CL just having too much for OS, though a pretty good run by OS all the same. OS seems to be the better jumper and worth another look certainly. 12-55 – This looked like a potentially good scrap between Pasco & Straw Bear, but once again Straw Bear failed to impress, I would now struggle to support Straw Bear on his nto. Pasco jumped really well apart from the 1 mistake 4 out. Isn’t that lucky ran well and his jumping wasn’t fantastic so improvement there and he could be quite handy. 14-05 – Real good race this with the 3 market leaders all looking good before hand. Fav The Tother One didn’t run too well and was on and off the bridle from some way out, though was looking though he was going to get involved when falling 4 out. That left Gone To Lunch & Tartak who went hammer and tongs at it the whole way. GTL came out on top but Tartak looked a good horse and both jumped particularly well when under pressure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted November 27, 2008 Author Share Posted November 27, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Friday 28th November – Newbury & Musselburgh There is two meeting today coming from Newbury and Musselburgh. Newbury is of course the better quality meeting with the highlight being the Grade 2 14-40 Novices Chase. All in all there is 2 non-handicap races from Newbury and 2 from Musselburgh so I will have a fair bash at them all. Newbury - Left handed, Galloping track with stiff fences. Top 3 Trainers (Win %) - P Nicholls (29%), P J Hobbs (17%), N Henderson (15%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) - R Walsh (31%), M Fitzgerald (18%) & A P McCoy (16%) Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places Hurdle) Races Today: 13-00 Hurdle, 14-40 Chase & 15-45 Hurdle Musselburgh - Right-handed, sharp track with stiffish fences Top 3 Trainers (Win %) - R A Fahey (24%), Howard Johnson (23%), N G Richards (20%) & L Lungo (20%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) - P Brennan (23%), G Lee (22%) & T Greenall (21%) Races Today: 12-40 Hurdle & 13-45 Hurdle (The plan is to post my selections at night, then post an advised price in the morning so as to fit in with my profit/loss at advised price & starting price.) Selections Friday 28th November Musselburgh: 12-40 Hurdle – A few interesting runners in this especially Call Me Al due to the booking of O’Regan. My selection though is going to be Houston Dynimo who was a beaten favourite on his hurdling debut lto. He was beaten by a neck by La Fortalesa though he is 7lbs better off than LF here today. Fast ground should suit and trainer has a 20% win success here so has pretty decent chance. Selection Rating: ( ) 13-45 Hurdle – A couple here are pretty good quality for this standard of race & another is a Musselburgh expert on the flat. Glencree won a Irish PTP race and was then bought for a very significant fee before performing pretty poorly in hurdling debut. Danzatrice has 4 of her 6 flat wins here at Mussy though is a pretty late starter in the hurdling game. Broadway Star won here in his last bumper and then finished 2nd on his hurdling debut though wasn’t far enough for him. Good chance to get off the mark here. Selection Rating: ( ) Newbury: 13-00 Hurdle – A couple of runners standout here; The first being hurdling debutant Mount Helicon who is highly regarded by stable and if he takes to fences could be promising. The other is Nicholls’s Art Trend who UR lto though was progressing at the time. Was 3rd on his hurdling debut and others in that race have gone on since, best example being Nampour who has won a class 2 at Aintree and finished 4th in a handy class 1 at Cheltenham. Art Trend was only beaten 3L by Nampour so has a great chance here and at potentially good value. Selection Ration: ( ) 14-40 Chase – Breaking my rules already by going for a race with under 6 runners though I feel Kicks For Free really has a great chance here. The Market Man is 2nd best though I find it hard to see him troubling KFF. KFF has a slightly higher hurdling record and with a run under his belt this season should see him home. Selection Rating: ( ) 15-45 Hurdle – Quite an open race this with 4 I have picked out. China Gold has 3 good bumper runs to his name and has a great chance as he should take to hurdles. Riverside Theatre is another with 3 great bumpers to his name though he did win 2 of them and finish 3rd in the other behind 2 promising types. Ikorodu Road only has the 1 run to his name getting beat by head to odds-on favourite while going off a 100/1, can possible improve on that for small stable. Finally it’s Copper Bleu who finished 5th in the champion event at Aintree then followed that up with a 3rd in his hurdling debut though jumped poorly. If jumping improves chance is there. Selection Rating: Copper Bleu ( ) & Ikorodu Road ( ) Will post tomorrow morning with final bets and advised prices! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted November 28, 2008 Author Share Posted November 28, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Priced 28/11/2008 Musselburgh: 12-40 Hurdle - Houston Dynimo - 13/8 Skybet (WIN) 13-45 Hurdle - Broadway Star - 15/8 Paddy Power (WIN) Newbury: 13-00 Hurdle - Art Trend - 3/1 Various (E/W) (3 Places, 1/5 Odds) 14-40 Chase - Kicks For Free - 21/20 Sporting Bet (WIN) 15-45 Hurdle - Copper Bleu - 11/4 Various (WIN) 15-45 Hurdle - Ikorodu Road - 16/1 Ladbrokes (E/W) (3 Places, 1/5 Odds) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted November 28, 2008 Author Share Posted November 28, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Priced 28/11/2008 Musselburgh: 12-40 Hurdle - Houston Dynimo - 13/8 Skybet (WIN) 2nd @ 11/10 :( 13-45 Hurdle - Broadway Star - 15/8 Paddy Power (WIN) 2nd @ 7/4 :( Newbury: 13-00 Hurdle - Art Trend - 3/1 Various (E/W) (3 Places, 1/5 Odds) 4th @ 15/8 :( 14-40 Chase - Kicks For Free - 21/20 Sporting Bet (WIN) 2nd @ 5/4 :( 15-45 Hurdle - Copper Bleu - 11/4 Various (WIN) 1st @ 11/4 :nana 15-45 Hurdle - Ikorodu Road - 16/1 Ladbrokes (E/W) (3 Places, 1/5 Odds) 3rd @ 16/1 :nana Well pretty poor day up until the last where I saved face with an 11/4 winner and 16/1 3rd! Will post my views & updated totals etc later! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted November 28, 2008 Author Share Posted November 28, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Friday 28th November Overview: Well today’s selection were 6 horses spread out over 5 races. Race 1 – Musselburgh 12-40: My Selection Houston Dynimo ran soundly enough but just couldn’t catch the winner. Looked good going into the home straight but the winner was just too gutsy for him. 2nd Race 2 – Newbury 13-00: Disappointing run by Art Trend here, has in trouble from some way out and possibly the ground was too soft for him. Blinkers seemed to work wonders on the winner. 4th Race 3 – Musselburgh 13-45: Broadway Star was a given a very patient ride and looked very good not far from home but he failed to pick up as much as winner Glencree who went on to win by over 2 lengths. 2nd Race 4 – Newbury 14-40: Kicks For Free was the back marker most of the way and when Sam Thomas told him to go he never found much. He ran pretty moodily and was well beaten by the very impressive The Market Man. After the race the TMM was cut into 14/1 favourite for the Sun Alliance and really does look a top class horse, he jumped impeccably and never looked troubled when under slight pressure. 2nd Race 5 – Newbury 15-45: My tally wasn’t looking good going into this race where I had Copper Bleu & Ikorodu Road. Ikorodu Road went off at the front of the field sitting in about 3rd the whole way before dropping back through the field, he jumped the last in 8th before he was asked to go and he responded brilliantly finishing well while moving into 3rd. If jockey English had told him to go earlier you never know, 1 to keep an eye on for sure. Copper Bleu ran a good race sitting in midfield before cruising to the front and finding plenty on the way to a very comfortable win. Saved the day a wee bit! 1st & 3rd Overall it was a decent day with all of my horse being in contention apart from Art Trend. Saying that though a win, three 2nds, a 3rd and a 4th from six selections is not too shabby! Total Bets: 8 Total Staked: 80pts Total Returned: 37.5pts Strike Rate: 2/8 (25%) Longest Winning Streak: 2 (Current) Longest Losing Streak: 6 Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 178.5pts Profit/Loss at Advised: -21.5pts Profit/Loss at SP: -21.5pts This is probably going to be my last post until Wednesday of next week as I have an Accountancy exam on Tuesday so really have to get focused on that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 3, 2008 Author Share Posted December 3, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Wednesday 3rd December – Catterick & Plumpton Well I’ve done my exam and I am pretty pleased I wasn’t tempted to get myself back on here until I had done it!! Couple of meetings here today coming in the form of Catterick and Plumpton. Ayr was probably the highlight but it’s frozen off so we are left with just the 2 meetings, which may be reduced to just Plumpton if the morning inspection finds any problems at Catterick. Catterick – Left-Handed, Tight / Undulating Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – M Johnston (28%), D Nicholls (15%) & D W Barker (11%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – Greg Fairley (19%), Robert Winston (16%) & Paul Hanagan (14%) Going: Good Races Today: 13-50 Hurdle & 14-20 Hurdle Plumpton - Left-Handed, Tight / Undulating Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – N J Henderson (36%), P F Nicholls (30%) & C J Mann (29%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – A P McCoy (28%), Noel Fehily (20%) & Philipp Hide (17%) Going: Soft Races Today: 12-35 Hurdle, 13-05 Chase & 14-40 Hurdle Selections Wednesday 3rd December Catterick: 13-50 Hurdle – Doesn’t look like this race will take much winning and although Nine Stories prefers a bit of cut in the ground he should take this comfortably, especially with Johnson in pretty fine form. Selection Rating: () 14-20 Hurdle – Pretty tight race this with a few having claims though not really one that is much better than the rest. Naturally Inspired hasn’t got much form finishing 7th lto in her hurdling debut, though may come on for that. Good ground should suit here though firm may be perfect in the future. So based on that I will pass this race. Selection Rating: N/A Plumpton: 12-35 Hurdle – Jeepstar could well improve on his win lto so certainly has a pretty good chance here. The other two I fancy are St Savarin & Daring Approach. St Savarin made a decent hurdling debut but has only run on the AW since and hasn’t ran for 225 days (275 jump). Daring Approach is certainly going in the right direction results wise with 4542 his hurdling record so far, though today may just be one step too far. Selection Rating: () 13-05 Chase – The Alan King horse Sovereign King has another bash at chasing here after falling on his debut last month. Pretty highly regarded by King so if he gets a clear round he could be very difficult to get past. Main danger is Phardessa who carries almost a stone less than SK and is a decent hurdler. Selection Rating: () 14-40 Hurdle – Pretty poor race this with one standout horse compared to the rest. Albany isn’t in the greatest form ever though it is still better than most of the others. Won a class 1 hurdle last year and won lto in a class 5. Should have enough to see off the others here. Selection Rating: () Will post tomorrow morning with final bets and advised prices! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 3, 2008 Author Share Posted December 3, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Priced 28/11/2008 Catterick: 13-50 Hurdle - Nine Stories - 4/11 Various (WIN) 14-20 Hurdle - No Selection! Plumpton: 12-35 Hurdle - Jeepstar - 5/2 Various (WIN) 13-05 Chase - Sovereign King - 5/6 Various (WIN) 14-40 Hurdle - Albany - 4/5 Various (WIN) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 3, 2008 Author Share Posted December 3, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Racing at Catterick has been delayed so im unsure as to what the race times will be! Each race may have been put back 5 minutes but im not totally sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted December 3, 2008 Share Posted December 3, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 test Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 3, 2008 Author Share Posted December 3, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Priced 28/11/2008 Catterick: 13-50 Hurdle - Nine Stories - 4/11 Various (WIN) 1st @ 1/5(!) :nana 14-20 Hurdle - No Selection! Plumpton: 12-35 Hurdle - Jeepstar - 5/2 Various (WIN) 5th @ 2/1 :( 13-05 Chase - Sovereign King - 5/6 Various (WIN) 1st @ 8/11 :nana 14-40 Hurdle - Albany - 4/5 Various (WIN) 1st @ 10/11 :nana Well first day of profit at the third time of asking :) 3 of the 4 runners won, all odds on but still a profit! Nine Stories went off at a horrible 1/5 though did put in a performance to match the price. Will post my views & updated totals later on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 3, 2008 Author Share Posted December 3, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Wednesday 3rd December Overview There were 4 selections today spread out over 4 races at Catterick & Plumpton. Race 1 – Plumpton 12-35: Jeepstar didn’t race all too comfortably but did lead with 2 to jump, he weakened before the end a finished a pretty poor 5th 5th Race 2 – Plumpton 13-05: Sovereign Star jumped very well here and won comfortably by 2.5L to Phardessa. He was able to jump well at the start with the slow pace and really came into his own when the pressure was on. 1st Race 3 – Catterick 13-50 (13-55): Nine Stories was sent off at 1/5 and certainly lived up to price. He couldn’t have won any easier and is certainly one to look for even though this was a pretty poor race. 1st Race 4 – Catterick 14-20 (14-25): Never put my money where my mouth was here and missed out on a 25/1 second. Naturally Inspired ran well enough but had no chance with the winner, who won by 5L. Pretty comfortable 2nd though. No Selection Race 5 – Plumpton 14-40: Pretty good run here from Albany who was dropped about a mile in distance. He jumped well apart from a mistake at the last but held on convincing to win by a couple of lengths. Could possibly do with maybe 2m4f for perfect run. 1st Good day overall with just the 1 blip from the 4 selections. Should trust my instincts more with the longshots but I’m more than happy with today’s selections. Total Bets: 12 Total Staked: 120pts Total Returned @ Advised: 108.47pts Strike Rate: 5/12 (41.66%) Longest Winning Streak: 3 (Current) Longest Losing Streak: 6 Highest Priced Winner: 11/4 (Copper Bleu) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (Ikorodu Road) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 188.47pts Profit/Loss at Advised: -11.53pts Profit/Loss at SP: -13.14pts Just realised that my previous ‘Total Returned’ figure is wrong, so ignore that amount last posting! Should be correct now though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted December 3, 2008 Share Posted December 3, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 I can see now...and well done today. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted December 3, 2008 Share Posted December 3, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Nice looking thread mate, well set out. Good luck for the season. I'll pop in and see how you're getting on. Good to see a few newbies trying their own threads and putting their reputation on the line. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 3, 2008 Author Share Posted December 3, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Thursday 4th December – Leicester & Wincanton A few jump meeting today but I’m going to focus on Leicester and Wincanton which delivers 5 non-handicap races and 1 handicap race which I am interested in. Leicester – Right-Handed, Stiff / Undulating Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – A King (27%), Venetia Williams (25%) & C Pipe (21%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – A P McCoy (33%), Timmy Murphy (26%) & Robert Thornton (25%) Going: Soft, Good to Soft in places Races Today: 13-10 Hurdle, 14-40 Hurdle & 15-10 Chase Wincanton – Right-Handed, Galloping Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – P F Nicholls (26%), P J Hobbs (17%) & A King (16%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – Ruby Walsh (36%), A P McCoy (27%) & Richard Johnson (19%) Going: Soft, Good to Soft in places Races Today: 13-20 Hurdle, 13-50 Chase & 14-50 Handicap Chase Selections Thursday 4th December Leicester: 13-10 Hurdle – Poor race this with no real form for any of the runners so will not take a lot to win. Hoar Frost finished 2nd on her debut which was probably a stronger race as we have here so she should be there or thereabouts. Selection Rating: () 14-40 Hurdle – This is far too tightly contested for my liking. Either one of Bugsy’s Boy, Grandage, Latanier & Night Cru could win this and with not one forecasted up at decent odds this is a pass! Selection Rating: N/A 15-10 Chase – Minella Four Star was pretty successful in 3 Irish point to points and made his first start over hurdles lto, he ran poorly and was never involved though the change to fences and the step down in distance should do the trick. Highly regarded by owners and should go well. Selection Rating: () Wincanton: 13-20 Hurdle – One standout here is the French horse Pepite De Soleil, will probably go off pretty heavily odds-on and hard to see anything beating him. Selection Rating: () 13-50 Chase – Lightning Strike is a far superior hurdler than course winner Tarotino but the latter put in a great run lto getting beaten 5L by Tartak who went on to challenge Gone To Lunch on his next outing so Tarotino certainly could go close here. Selection Rating: () 14-50 Handicap Chase - Not the best race this but I have selected it as my first handicap race of the thread as Alfadora runs again and this is the final chance I am going to give him. Has had 2 decent chase starts finishing 2nd on his debut then jumped poorly into 6th lto. Ground should be nice and soft for him and with 12/1 currently available with PP & B365 looks decent value to me. Selection Rating: () Will post bet types and advised prices in the morning! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted December 3, 2008 Share Posted December 3, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Priced 28/11/2008 Catterick: 13-50 Hurdle - Nine Stories - 4/11 Various (WIN) 14-20 Hurdle - No Selection! Plumpton: 12-35 Hurdle - Jeepstar - 5/2 Various (WIN) 13-05 Chase - Sovereign King - 5/6 Various (WIN) 14-40 Hurdle - Albany - 4/5 Various (WIN) good work today Nick. I'm loving those stars. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 3, 2008 Author Share Posted December 3, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Cheers for the comments lads, and I'm pleased you can see now Spooner! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 4, 2008 Author Share Posted December 4, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 04/12/2008 Leicester: 13-10 Hurdle – Hoar Frost – 4/1 Betfred & VC Bet (WIN) 14-40 Hurdle – No Selection 15-10 Chase – Minella Four Star – 6/1 Various (E/W, 3 Places, 1/5 Odds) Wincanton: 13-20 Hurdle – Pepite De Soleil - 2/5 SportingBet (WIN) 13-50 Chase – Tarotino – Evs – (WIN) 14-50 Handicap Chase – Alfadora – 10/1 Various (E/W, 3 Places 1/5 Odds) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 4, 2008 Author Share Posted December 4, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 04/12/2008 Leicester: 13-10 Hurdle – Hoar Frost – 4/1 Betfred & VC Bet (WIN) Fell @ 6/1 :( 14-40 Hurdle – No Selection 15-10 Chase – Minella Four Star – 6/1 Various (E/W, 3 Places, 1/5 Odds) 2nd @ 5/1 :nana Wincanton: 13-20 Hurdle – Pepite De Soleil - 2/5 SportingBet (WIN) 1st @ 2/11(!) :nana 13-50 Chase – Tarotino – Evs – (WIN) 3rd @ Evs :( 14-50 Handicap Chase – Alfadora – 10/1 Various (E/W, 3 Places 1/5 Odds) 5th @ 7/1 :( Well another day of loss and the only winner was the French horse who was a massive favourite! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 4, 2008 Author Share Posted December 4, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Thursday 4th December Overview There were 5 selections today spread out over 5 races at Leicester & Wincanton. Race 1 – Leicester 13-10: Hoar Frost was travelling pretty well when he fell at the last. Not sure if he would have won it but I think he may have been there or thereabouts. Fell Race 2 – Wincanton 13-20: Well the advised price for Pepite De Soleil was 2/5 which pretty big considering he went off 2/11. As expected he won extremely comfortably. 1stRace 3 – Wincanton 13-50: This was the match up between in-form Tarotino and high-rated hurdler Lightning Strike. Tarotino was doing the better of the 2 and jumping fluently compared to LS who was jumping decently but made a few mistake. Tarotino was looking good before stopping suddenly and not able to find anymore, which leads me to suspect there was some sort of problem. 3rd Race 4 – Wincanton 14-50: Alfadora was the selection here and I was giving him his final chance to improve and he once again failed me. He jumped left all race and was subsequently beaten by 60L. 5th Race 5 – Leicester 15-10: Minella Four Star ran a good race and was only beaten 2L into second by Kate’s Gift. MFS jumped pretty well and probably worth keeping an eye on him in the near future as he is well regarded and expected to progress. 2nd Not the best of days overall yielding a loss. There was profit on 2 of the horses but the profit was very small and could deny another day of loss. Total Bets: 17 Total Staked: 170pts Total Returned @ Advised: 133.47pts Strike Rate: 7/17 (41.18%) Longest Winning Streak: 3 (Currently on a run of 1) Longest Losing Streak: 6 Highest Priced Winner: 11/4 (Copper Bleu) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (Ikorodu Road) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 163.47pts Profit/Loss at Advised: -36.53pts Profit/Loss at SP: -41.32pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 5, 2008 Author Share Posted December 5, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Friday 5th December – Sandown & Exeter I've found that the problem with Non-handicap races is that you need a very high strike rate to yield a profit due to mostly odds-on favourite winning. So I may look into altering my race selection for next Monday but until then I’ll just stick to the usual! Some good racing here today and there is 5 non-handicap races between the 2 cards. Sandown – Right Handed, Galloping, Testing Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – Michael Stoute (23%), J H M Gosden (21%) & M A Jarvis (21%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – R Hills (21%), L Dettori (19%) & Ryan Moore (18%) Going: Good to Soft, Soft in places. Races Today: 12-50 Hurdle, 14-00 Hurdle & 14-35 Chase Exeter – Right Handed, Very Undulating, Testing Track Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – P F Nicholls (26%), P J Hobbs (20%) & M C Pide (16%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – R Walsh (32%), Richard Johnson (22%) & A P McCoy (21%) Going: Soft, Heavy in Places Races Today: 13-35 Chase & 14-45 Hurdle Selections Friday 5th December Sandown: 12-50 Hurdle – Helium should be able to afford to give 4lbs to Tuanku here and go on to win. Ran well in his 1st run in the country and should improve on that and win again here. Likes the softer ground and distance is good. Selection Rating: () 14-00 Hurdle – Grizebeck is probably at best 2nd best in this race behind On Raglan Road, but not by far so I will put my money where the value is and sitting at 12/1 currently is pretty big. Won lto and has a very good record on soft ground. Selection Rating: () 14-35 Chase – Good race this with a good few real good runners. I fancy Battlecry but after seeing Brennan riding him lto I have to overlook him. My selection will be Roll Along who is officially rated the best and is therefore 7lbs better off than the rest. Comfotably beat Air Force One lto who went on to finish 2nd in the Hennessy so he should have a great chance here. Selection Rating: () Exeter: 13-35 Chase – Panjo Bere has 2 chase runs under his belt in the UK and he has won them both very comfortably. He is quite a pacey number and stays well so today will be right up his street. Will probably go off priced up very closely to Exmoor Ranger but I feel he will just have too much for his main rival. Selection Rating: () 14-45 Hurdle – Darstardly Dick doesn’t over much value here and isn’t too reliable whereas the others its wide open and I will pass this race! Selection Rating: N/A Will post up bets and advised prices in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 5, 2008 Author Share Posted December 5, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices Friday 5th December Sandown: 12-50 Hurdle – Helium – 5/6 Various (WIN) 14-00 Hurdle – Grizebeck – 8/1 Boylesport (E/W) 14-35 Chase – Roll Along – 2/1 Various (WIN) Exeter: 13-35 Chase – Panjo Bere - NR 14-45 Hurdle - No Selection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 8, 2008 Author Share Posted December 8, 2008 Friday 5th December Overview There were 5 races today but I only managed 4 selections and one turned out to be a non-runner so in the end there just the 3 selections. Race 1 – Sandown 12-50: Very easy win by the impressive Helium here. Looks a real good horse and pretty much destroyed Tuanku (who is no mug) while conceding weight. Possible potential for the Triumph Hurdle. 1st Race 2 – Sandown 14-00: Grizebeck tracked the leaders but there was no pace and he wasn’t able to get going. Usual being a front runner and making all the change of tactics just didn’t work out at all. 5th Race 3 – Sandown 14-35: The feature race here at Sandown and it was quite a good one! The selection Roll Along seemed to be struggling some way out but did improve and although he didn’t have enough for the winner he ran decently. A good run by Barbershop saw him win comfortably. 3rd A very good run by Helium in the 1st got the day off to a good start but a pretty poor performance from Grizebeck and then Roll Along was comfortably beaten to add to the losses of the day. Total Bets: 20 Total Staked: 200pts Total Returned @ Advised: 151.80pts Strike Rate: 8/20 (40.00%) Longest Winning Streak: 3 Longest Losing Streak: 6 (Currently on a run of 1) Highest Priced Winner: 11/4 (Copper Bleu) Highest Priced Place: 16/1 (Ikorodu Road) Starting Bank: 200pts New Bank: 151.80pts Profit/Loss at Advised: -48.20pts Profit/Loss at SP: -54.65pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 8, 2008 Author Share Posted December 8, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Monday 8th December – Musselburgh Going to have a wider look at the races today not focusing as much on Non-Handicap races, though they will come into consideration Just the one meeting today and its from sunny Musselburgh. Musselburgh – Right Handed, Sharp Track with Stiffish Fences. Top 3 Trainers (Win %) – M Johnston (20%), B Smart (20%) & D Nicholls (19%) Top 3 Jockeys (Win %) – Robert Winston (15%), Adrian T Nicholls (14%) & Royston Ffrench (13%) Going: Good, Good to firm in places. Races Today: Whole Card Selections Monday 8th December Musselburgh: 12-50 Chase – 1st race is very poor so onto the second. KalmoBay looks a pretty good E/W bet here, he is well handicapped and has a 3lbs claimer on board to further ease the weight. Won his only start here at Musselburgh in a chase February. Good ground suits and he has a decent chance Selection Rating: () 13-20 Hurdle – Red Moloney is rated very highly (in comparison to others here) on the flat and has been bought for a 6 figure sum for the Howard Johnson yard. Interesting prospect and should go well. Selection Rating: () 13-50 Hurdle – Has yet to run to his best this season but Pakineo Des Pictons gets another chance to prove himself here. Hasn’t ran on firm ground before but is certainly worth a shot at the 15/2 which is available. Highly regarded by trainer and is expected to turn into a good hurdler in the future. Selection Rating: () Will post up bets and advised prices in a mo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted December 8, 2008 Author Share Posted December 8, 2008 Re: NMc's Jumping For Joy! 2008/09 Advised Prices 08/12/2008 Musselburgh 12-50 Chase – KalmoBay – 11/2 Various (E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 Odds) 13-20 Hurdle – Red Moloney – 8/11 Various (Win) 13-50 Hurdle – Pakineo Des Pictons – 9/1 Sporting Bet (E/W: 3 Places, 1/5 odds) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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