Football Favourite-Longshot Bias System

[Orpheus]

The existence of a favourite-longshot bias is well-documented - mostly positive (i.e. there is better value in backing short-priced horses than outsiders) and occasionally negative (i.e. there is better value in backing underdogs in American team sports). Naturally, all these studies look at the odds/results after the completion of the event. I want to see if the assumed existence of a positive favourite-longshot bias in football can provide any usefulness in forecasting. Has anyone else used this within their betting systems? The odds/results have been taken from football-data.co.uk and cover the 22 different leagues available for download on that site. The odds used are the BetBrain maximum odds. I've split the odds into intervals of 0.05 up to a maximum of 2.25 (else it is not a positive favourite-longshot bias system) and so I've tracked the profit/loss from blindly backing teams in each odds interval. Here is an example of the results: In the English Premier League, blindly backing every home team up to odds of 2.05 produced a profit of 15.17 units from 1 unit stakes in 2007; in 2006 backing every home team up to odds of 2.10 produced a profit of 18.23 units from 1 unit stakes. However, the size of these profit-making regions of odds is rare - most leagues have only small regions of odds in which consistent profits have been made by blindly backing home/away teams. Indeed, that has been the case with the Premier League in 2008 unlike the last two years. So, my system is to take the last three years of odds/results and calculate which odds intervals have shown a cumulative profit by backing teams whose highest odds fall into these intervals. These 'profitable odds' intervals then have two further filters: (i) profits in each interval must have been positive in two of the last three years (to eliminate the effect of one very good year against two small negative ones); (ii) cumulative profits must have been positive in each one neighbouring odds interval (so if 1.86-1.90 has been profitable in the Premier League in total over the last three years and in at least two of the last three years, it is designated a 'profitable odds' region only if the same holds for either the 1.81-1.85 or 1.91-1.95 regions). Teams are then blindly backed whose highest odds fall into these 'profitable' odds intervals in each league. Results have been encouraging this season, but I'm posting it here to see if I can learn from anyone who has looked at a similar 'system'. Teams backed today from this system: Werder Bremen 1.50 Catania 2.19 Udinese 1.45 Alkmaar AZ 1.81 Celtic 1.29 Athletico Madrid 1.67 Espanyol 1.73 Eskisehirspor 1.91 Let see if the poster's curse kicks in :tongue2

[Orpheus]

Re: Football Favourite-Longshot Bias System Bets: 8 Wins: 4 Win Percentage: 50% Total Staked: 8pts Profit: -1.35pts Yield: -16.9% Not the best start :eyes Just one qualifying bet from the midweek's slim pickings: Cambridge Utd 1.96 [Pinnacle]