Exeter 11/11/2008

[NMc106]

They are hopeful that it will go ahead so here goes. Will be real testing conditions though, thats for sure!! 14-10 Exeter

Richard’s Sundance:

Last ran 261 days ago; finishing 3^rd in a class 5 hurdle on good ground here at Exeter. The ground is going to be woeful here and his record on Heavy/Soft ground is 506323, with the most recent three being over hurdles. Trainer had a good 12/1 winner at Chepstow last week, though isn’t in fantastic form. Remains at same weight as LTO; and will have to improve on his jumping.

Take a Mile:

Had a good run out at Fontwell 23 days ago; winning a class 4 hurdle. Is raised 9lbs (inc. Claimer) from that run, so will certainly have to improve. Was a decent hurdler back in 2007 winning of marks as high as 119; though I am not sure he’ll cope with the 9lbs rise.

Master Wells:

Fell LTO 34 days ago though was well in contention at the time and remains at the same weight though does have a 7lbs claimer on board this time. Doesn’t have the best record on poor ground though it is one of the best in this race with 2474321552. Trainers not in bad form though it isn’t anything special.

Loulou Nivernais:

Was prolific on heavy ground last year with 4 consecutive wins including a couple of class 3’s. Recently changed stables though no new lease of life as yet. Is running off his lowest mark since the end of 2006 into 2007 where he had a record of 2F334F53231111. Has won off of a mark of 121 over fences though will have to improve here.

Going to go with the outsider here; Loulou Nivernais. Has been dropped a fair amount and was going not too badly when fell LTO. Should go well on the ground and that may be the difference as these really are testing conditions.

Suggestion:

Loulou Nivernais E/W @ 14/1 Paddy Power. :hope

[NMc106]

Re: Exeter 11/11/2008 14-40 Exeter

OscarBay:

Course winner and is quite a good stayer so the increase in distance should suit him well. Has had a 1^st & 2^nd in chase career so far, the 2^nd coming here at Exeter. Ran twice on heavy finishing 2^nd both times so could go on the ground here. Is 10lbs worse off than others though. Trainers in decent form from his few runs & has a slight record here.

Nevada Royale:

Hasn’t ran for 228 days though is very highly regarded and was quite fancied for this years Sun Alliance though all hasn’t gone to plan in his 3 runs; he took a bad fall in his chase debut back in December so he was put back down into hurdles where he won here very comfortably, he then ran 24 days later at Newbury and was pulled up, Sam Thomas had said there was a problem and the horse had stopped very quickly. The aim is apparently for next years Sun Alliance. Coping with the ground may be a problem so is far from a dead cert here. Nicholls in great form & has a very good record here also. Ruby Walsh on board.

Quickbeam:

Has won over this distance and comes into this of the back of a hurdling win at Stratford 205 days ago. Very well ranked hurdler winning off a mark of 140 in that race at Stratford. Also has a 3lb claimer on board so is the lightest horse running. Has won in testing conditions so should go well here today, could make a good chaser. Trainers in pretty good form & also has a good record here.

Spare Cash:

Made his chase debut 21 days ago here; finishing 5^th not running particularly well and it was quite a good quality affair. Should run better here today. Half brother to D’Argent and could well cope with the ground here. King in good form and has a great record here.

Nevada Royale & Quickbeam are hard to get away from especially with Oscar Bay having a penalty. Carnival Town also has some support but Quickbeam gets my vote.

Suggestion:

Quickbeam Win @ 5/2 RPF :hope