Exeter 04/11/2008

[NMc106]

14-10 Exeter

Medermit:

French horse here; has a good record over hurdles over in France winning 1 & placing 2 in his 3 races. Likes to run on the heavy ground and although it isn’t heavy here today it is pretty soft. A King is in pretty handy form recently and he has a good record here. Should go pretty well here today even with the 170 day break.

South Wing:

Had a run over hurdles in September finishing 1^st in a decent race; was over similar ground and distance. Trainers not in great form though.

Clova Island:

Has a 100% win success over hurdles, though has only had the one run. Trainer is in decent form and is quite interesting how he will run here today, may have a chance.

Mahonia:

Ran well in a bumper in February winning quite comfortably. Was then tried in the champion bumper at Cheltenham where he faced tougher opposition and although he was outclassed he was not disgraced. A Paul Nicholls horse and as with all his horses they have a shout & he is in great form again as always.

Quite a good quality hurdle this, Mahonia is forecasted at 5/4 which is of course largely based on his stable. Due to that I will plump for the decent E/W value of the French grey horse Medermit.

Suggestion:

Medermit – E/W @ 6/1 (RPF) :hope

[NMc106]

Re: Exeter 04/11/2008 14-40 Exeter

Twist Magic:

Good class 1 horse this; trainer by Paul Nicholls and is back from a 196 day rest. Hopefully he will be in tip-top shape and he should like the ground and distance here; though he does give away an awful lot of weight to the others. Nicholls is in good form and has a good record here.

Natal:

Another Nicholls horse here, ran in the same race LTO as Twist Magic did, finishing 2^nd behind him; though he does have a 15lbs advantage over TW here today. Hasn’t had a fantastic recent record on soft ground though he has proven he can run on it with a few wins; and is a CD winner here.

Howle Hill:

Showed promise in 2006 though has faded a bit and hasn’t live up to his earlier form recently. Ground doesn’t look to promising here either; though Alan King does have quite a good record here and is in good form.

Mahogany Blaze:

Hasn’t been in fantastic recent form though if he runs to his top form he will certainly be a contender. He is a Course winner and a Distance winner; and has a decent record on softer ground finishing 21235 in his five chases on softer ground; though they were all in small fields apart from the Arkle where he finished 5^th.

Interesting race this with this basically being a comeback race. Twist Magic will be hard to get away from though at 2/1 its not very attractive odds; though if he runs to his ability I really can’t see anything beating him.

Suggestion:

Twist Magic – Win @ 2/1 Bet 365 :hope