wjwskill Posted October 22, 2008 Share Posted October 22, 2008 Hi All, This is my first post on this excellent forum. I am an active sports bettor working in the betting industry. I have a sports trading portfolio which has five different parts: My selections (choosing the best 15 value bets each weekend out of 250 which my program churns out. I place two units on each of the 15) My draws (the highest 10 ranking draw profitabilty games, my program selects the teams which return a positive draw profitability over their last 10 respective home or away games depending on where they are playing. Over 20+ leagues in Europe on average 25 games pit two positive draw rated teams against each other, i pick the 10 highest of them and place two units on each of the 10 draws) My draw yankee (the top four draws, from the same procedure as above, are selected in a draw yankee. 1 unit is placed on each of the 11 bets) Spread betting (I analyse every TV game in the week to see which two offer the best value bets in terms of booking points. I look for a 20% minimum edge on the starting spread either buy/sell and place a unit stake on the outcome. Expecting a 20 point swing i consider each spread bet as risking 20 unit stakes) Tips/in-play (I work in an environement where everyone in my office is an active bettor and many professional gamblers operate here also. Any tips given I analyse to check their worth. I also watch many events on tv/Betfair and look for value. If found I will place 10 units on the outcome, a maximum of two bets will be placed per week) In all I place a maximum of 121 unit stakes per week. My balance starts at 605 stakes. My rules state I can only increase the amount per unit stake by £1 per week, and only then if the balance allows no more than 20% to be staked in total per week. At the time of starting one unit = £5, starting balance = 3025. I haven't quite established an efficient money management plan can anyone offer any guidance on this subject? That is my system, it is going very well producing continued profits. Just wondering if anyone has any advice or questions to help me improve. Kind Regards, wjwskill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 22, 2008 Share Posted October 22, 2008 Re: My Staking System Hi, it's hard to comment on the amounts you're staking without knowing how well your bets do and how confident you are that they'll continue to do that well, but the amounts look quite reasonable to me, and I think you're right to restrict your betting mainly to singles. A couple of comments: I don't think it's right to stick to a fixed number of bets per week. There must be some weeks where you have more bets you feel confident about and some weeks where you have fewer. It seems right to me to bet when you think the bet is worth it, rather than sticking to an artificial fixed number of bets. I'm not a big fan of multiple bets, but if you're doing a draw Yankee and betting singles on the same draws anyway, you may as well do a Lucky 15. This pays a "consolation" of double the odds when you have one winner with most bookies (and also a bonus if all four win). Your draw bets are presumably around 3/1, so one winner is probably a fairly common outcome (about 40% of the time?). So the consolation is worth 3 points about 40% of the time, or about 1.2 points in an average week, and the bonus is probably worth about 1/4 of a point on average. Not a huge amount, but worth having. I'm not 100% sure all bookies pay the bonus/consolation on football bets (virtually all of them do on racing bets), but it's worth checking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjwskill Posted October 22, 2008 Author Share Posted October 22, 2008 Re: My Staking System Slapdash, Many thanks for your comments. I still think I'm in the testing stage, have placed about 500 bets so far, think it will take up to 2000 before I can see for sure. I didnt think bookies gave bonuses for the football Lucky 15 on the singles, but I will investigate and if they do I'll switch straight away. Over 16 of the Yankee bets, I've averaged 1.88 wins. Producing a good return so far (missed all four because of Aliadiere's last minute goal against Wigan a couple of weeks back). I get what your saying about no fixed limit but the idea was that I would go chasing any losses. I quite like restricting the betting to the weekend (with that taking all of my bets) because I can prepare all week and make sure the odds i work out are justified with team news nearer the time. Also it gives me time to consolidate all of the monies together for the next round of betting. The staking plan is basically that no more than 10% of the whole fund is placed each week to cope with downturns particularly in the yankee and spread betting. Not a massive fan of combination bets myself, but throughout all of the leagues I look at, there are usually 3-5 very very strong draw trends and they make it worth it IMO. Cheers again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjwskill Posted October 22, 2008 Author Share Posted October 22, 2008 Re: My Staking System Coral do the Lucky 15 for footy, just opened new account Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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