Could this be the system?...

[Guest MIWAYNE]

Hi folks I've been testing and back-proofing many, many ideas for identifying profitable footy selections (automatically) for years now. I'm with Joe on the thought that it takes a LONG time to show that a 'system' really is going to show a steady, consistent profit. I've had many that have been showing promise after 50, 100, even 300 bets before the downward turn begins. I'm currently backing the selections of my latest attempt with real cash as it is 484 bets down the line (that's level stake singles) with a return of 512 units (5.8% profit). Not a gold-mine, I agree, but it is a profit and it is over a long time period. Obviously, spending time analysing the selections to de-select really bad choices 'should' increase this, but it's interesting a profit is showing after this many bets with no hard work! The return can be increased to (14.5%) with a subtle staking plan, but I want to continue to show a profit with level stakes. The data I'm using for this is English league games only from the 1997/98 season onwards (well over 8000 games) obtained from a combination of data from Joe's site ( www.football-data.co.uk ) and Mabels Tables ( www.mabels-tables.com ). (Joe, any chance of you getting odds for years before?) In essence, the system identifies big value in the AWAY odds, based on particular sequences of previous games. I don't have access to previous Asian Handicap odds so I can't comment on how this type of bet on each selection would do, but the nature of the bets mean it could be the way to go!? Anyway, enough of the background. Here are this weekend's selections from the system: 1. Middlesborough v Man City (4.33) 2. Northampton v Port Vale (3.00) 3. Oldham v Cheltenham (5.50) 4. Tottenham v Leeds (3.20) (Odds taken from ladbrokes.com as this is the bookie prices I have back-proofed the system with. Obviously, obtaining the best odds around will inevitably increase the return, but I have the majority of my on-line cash here and don't have the time or inclination to spend time doing otherwise!) For the purposes of this exercies I'll start with a bank/pot of 100 units and back each selection with a single unit and see how the pot does! Again, I'm backing these now with my own money so I'll be living the results! I'll do my best to keep this post going. Hope you don't mind. Regards, Wayne (comments appreciated!) www.football4profit.co.uk

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: Could this be the system?... Very interesting given the number of bets. Do you actually calculate fair odds for your selections to compare with bookie's prices? If so could tell us how your average fair odds compare with your strike rate? 5% is not to be sniffed at, there are many who would pay for details of such a system and I will be delighted if my system is showing 5% after 500 bets. Like you I am having small stakes on my system selections. When you post your summary data will you include the bets to date or just the ones that you have posted here? Regarding the odds you really do want to be taking best odds. If that is impractical for you then I suggest you at least record the best odds for comparision and to highlight the profit you are missing out on. Also, these tend to be the type of bets where much better odds can be obtained on an exchange. Good luck and I hope you keep this up.