Their are numerous post about differing.........

[Guest luckycraiguk]

Their are numerous post about differing systems. But none seem to have formulas laid bare and open. One post on Poisson distribution looked good. But it didn't post various frequencies of distributed scores. This would have been particularly good for looking at over and under betting. I understand that some may wish to keep their systems to themselves, but what is the point of claiming this to be a betting strategy board, when strategies are only alluded to.

[Joe]

Re: Their are numerous post about differing......... Here's one for you Craig. Back an English league match to finish in a draw if the away team has won at least 3 of its previous away games. Tested over 10 seasons, shows 7% yield (profit over turnover), after over 1,000 bets. If you trawl through this section you'll find the profit graph for it somewhere. 7 out of 9 seasons returned profit, this one currently up. Only drawback was last season the system showed a considerable loss, with bank falling from 100 to about 65 (all bets to unit level stakes). Now of course whilst this system appears to be statistically significant this does not mean that the underlying hypothesis behind it (good away sides are less likely to lose but will happilly settle for a point) is the real cause. There could be a supurious hidden factor accounting for the 33% strike rate (expected 27%). If this is the case, then one could more readily expect things to go tits up from here on in. Another consideration is that it fails to work in other European leagues, although shows some positive profit for Spain's La Liga - there could be valid reasons why this is the case though (and Mick might be along to let you know what these are;) ). However, 10 years of data is a long period and it is encouraging that it did well in 7 of the preceding 9. Now, don't say we aren't here to help. ;)