Newcastle 01/10/08

[mattmcandrew]

Go nuts with your suggestions!

[mattmcandrew]

Re: Newcastle 01/10/08 2:40 Racing Post makes a good point about the low numbers normally being where the winner is found in 5f slogs on soft ground. Only in 2003 did a horse above stall 10 win this one in the last 9 runnings and that was on good to firm. With that in mind I really don't have a problem cutting the horses in stalls 10-17. Top Toy is a non-runner, so that leaves me with 8. Mormeatmic has been beaten by quite a distance on the 3 occasions he's run on heavy, so he's cut. Sunley Sovereign is the horse who caused so much annoyance on the 22nd of September by winning at 50/1 without showing any previous form at all. If he follows up with a 6lb penalty, I will eat my hat. Dakota Rain really hasn't convinced recently. He drops to 5f today for the first time in a while, which is of semi-interest. But really isn't running well at all, so very difficult to fancy. Jadan has a lot to find with Grimes Faith based on their running last week. Hasn't won well in his 3 races this term, but has got gradually closer in each. But can't be fancied. Morristown Music will should certainly handle the conditions. Has been pretty worthless this term though, with latest run being the only thing of interest. I don't see him winning this one. Ursus would have a chance if repeating the form showed in back to back victories in April. He's one to keep an eye on. Whozart is on the borderline draw-wise. Put in a good few runs recently though, so does have place claims. The one for me has to be Grimes Faith though. Should relish the conditions, drawn beautifully. Seems very difficult to oppose at this stage. Prediction 1st Grimes Faith 7/2 2nd Whozart 12/1 3rd Select Committee 14/1

[mattmcandrew]

Re: Newcastle 01/10/08 16-17-13. There goes the low draw theory, lol.