Laying the draw

[Hooloovoo]

Your'e laying the draw in a match where fav plays at home, with the intention to back it when a goal is scored. The minutes are ticking by and the goal never comes.... Which approach do you have and why? * Backing at some point during the match (e.g. 60 minutes), going red for a loss no matter outcome * Let it ride with the hope of backing after a late goal, since many goals are scored in final minutes, thereby risking the entire liability Would be interesting with some input from experienced draw layers

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Laying the draw ...nobody...? :unsure

[DC]

Re: Laying the draw Not something I normally do mate. I guess you have to back test and see which is more beneficial? letting the bet ride or bailing out.... i guess backing 0-0 will chew up your profit :unsure

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Laying the draw Backtesting is virtually impossible mate since we're talking about trading in-play. I was interested in what kind of different "exit strategies" people use

[DC]

Re: Laying the draw Ok what I meant was look at how many games end 0-0 where the favourite is at home...that will determine whether or not it's worth leaving the bet to run or not?

[rolf]

Re: Laying the draw You'd have to backtest it on variable amounts of 0-0 backing "insurance". I imagine different long term results depending on how much you back on that 0-0.

[Dermbet]

Re: Laying the draw this is interesting: I'd think you would have to prepare some kind of contingency each time.(like was said prevsly , backing the 0-0, maybe). it's not normally wise to let a bet go with the possibility of a big loss coming your way which will crush all your profits and small gains. i think u r best swallowing a small loss of whatever. and then over period see if it justifies itself. laying the draw, leaves u with options of what? - laying home team, betting on 0-0 If you leave it to ride and it's 5-1 the draw, you're in trouble. i dunno what answer is but good question problem is that with really good teams, the draw on xchanges are usually big prices...so it's a risk. maybe strategy to use big scoring home teams with habit of scoring late??

[Kanga]

Re: Laying the draw There are alternatives to covering yourself. You could back the "unders market" or you could back the "no goalscorer" as well as the previously mentioned 0-0 scoreline. Each cover will be a different price so you would have to do the calcs to see which is the cheapest alternative - but any of them will eat into your initial lay profits. The only other option is to choose your lay matches carefully (so you wouldn't need to cover yourself) rather than just blindly back the home favourite. There are a number of reliable systems on here that may help you.

[jonnyb1978]

Re: Laying the draw Ive been researching this for a while now and still trying to find a a good plan. What i have learnt is i would never let it ride. So far im using my backing stake on the lay to 10% bank on whatever the odds are. Profits are small so letting it ride could be disastrous. You definately need a get out point so discipline is the key. Im tending to pick teams known for high scoring or teams known to let a load of goals in along with a few other criteria. Its hard to paper trial this in play, so this week i have 8 teams and i just have to monitor different odds in comparison with the time of game. Ie. Ive logged their prices now and will compare just before kick off. Also when a goal is scored to log the time and the different in odds from before the goal to now. Also to monitor the prices at different times in the game when its still 0 - 0 to find your get out point. I still havnt got a set get out point yet. Its either a time around 60 minutes or a percentage loss of my book which any software can deal with. Once i get a better understanding of the change in odds when a goal is scored from what the original odd where im going to take the plunge using £2 stakes. Let me know how your getting on.

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Laying the draw There are several problems which i'm trying to workaround: If team A is heavy favourite, and team B scores first, then draw odds could remain the same, or even drop a bit! Even if you get teams that is evenly matched, they could score a goal early (1' - 20') and the market is then expecting an equaliser, so draw odds could remain or drop even in this scenario. One alternative, to increase the probability of the draw odds really going up, is to lay the draw like 30 minutes into the match. New problem: the back odds for the 0-0 has fallen drastically, making your insurance back stake eating away all your profit and more...

[Lechero79]

Re: Laying the draw Interesting theories here... I think if team A is a heavy favourite and team B scores first, I'd trade at a slight profit/loss and close the book. If a team scores early in games which are evenly matched, in my experience the market tends to over react rather than expecting an equaliser. What I've done here is a survey of some major European Leagues using soccerstats.com, which should make interesting reading... English Premier League Matches Played: 119 Ave Goals/Game: 2.72 Over 2.5 Goals: 57% 0-0 Draws: 7 (5.9%) In only 2 of the 0-0 draws, were the home team supposedly stronger than the away team (Liverpool v Stoke and Tottenham v Wigan). The other 5 were all similarly matched teams, or the away team was slightly stronger - which would have been no bet for me. France League 1 Matches Played: 130 Ave Goals/Game: 2.2 Over 2.5 Goals: 38% 0-0 Draws: 12 (9.2%) - However, only in several of these matches were the home side solid favourites - Marseille v Monaco, Toulouse v Monaco, Auxerre v Valenciennes - although it should be noted that Rennes seem to draw 0-0 for fun, particularly away from home. German Bundesliga Matches Played: 108 Goals/Game: 3.06 (!) Over 2.5 Goals: 57% 0-0 Draws: 4 (3.7%) - Only 1 of these matches were the home team clear favourite (Schalke v Bielefeld). Italy Serie A Matches Played: 109 Goals/Game: 2.28 Over 2.5 Goals: 41% 0-0 Draws: 6 (5.5%) - Only 1 game, Inter v Genoa, were the home team clear favourites. Spain Primera Liga Matches Played: 110 Goals/Game: 2.76 Over 2.5 Goals: 49% 0-0 Draws: 9 (8.2%) - Although in none of these draws, were the home team solid favourites. Champions League Group Stages (Important to analyse as they all go in running) Matches: 64 0-0 Draws: 7 (10.9%) - A few home teams were favourite and were held - Werder Bremen v Famagusta, Celtic v Aalborg, Man United v Villarreal, Fiorentina v Steaua Bucharest, Arsenal v Fenerbahce. So what can we gan from all this information?? It seems very unlikely that a match in a domestic league which has the home team as a solid favourite will end 0-0. The Champions League is a seemingly different proposition, with a fair few favourites drawing 0-0 (perhaps because of the group nature of the tournament?). So if we lay the draw in domestic matches (even France shouldn't pose too much of a problem) and then back it when a goal goes in, we 'should' do pretty well. I might start testing this...

[jonnyb1978]

Re: Laying the draw In theory laying the draw sounds easy but like the points what have been mentioned its far from it. I looked at the insurance bet and found it was hardly worth it as it would eat profits and from the teams im trying toI I think its all down to personal preference here and if you are happy to let bets ride or trade out. Im laying with the stake at 10 % of my bank and aiming to tie in a profit of 10% of that. Meaning 1% of my bank per bet. Thats my aim long term so im aiming slightly bigger 1.2% to off set any losses. Some profit is more some is less. But by having aiming for a profit you can work out the odds to back the draw and leave it unmatched. Again the same with the trading out for a loss. You need an amount you are happy to lose by working out your profits and strike rate. Again as soon that price has been hit then its time to cut your losses. I still find it all annoying as just as you think you have it, results dont go your way. The idea is to pick teams that will give you a strike rate of 90% or so and for the losers to minimise loss by own judgment. Trading out 2 early could leave you short as i did on the weekends Liverpool game. I have real money and made a mistake and wacked a fair bit on. I panicked and got out losing, then a few minutes later they scored. At the moment im looking at leagues with a low draw percentage, taking teams out who have draw a bit lowering the percentage even more and also favouring teams who score well, good home/away records and also h2h. Do this and the chance of a draw will be reduced considerably. They will still come tho. Good luck!