Hamilton 21/09/08

[mattmcandrew]

I'll concentrate on the handicaps, as that's where I seem to be having most joy. 2:40 I've found more than enough reasons to cut a few of these. Rascasse has been beaten by 8l+ on every occasion he has raced. He drops back to 6f for the first time since his debut, but it looks more in hope than expectation. Also the one other occasion he raced on testing ground was at Ripon in June and he was tailed off. Planet Queen is also ruled out because she has struggled on soft ground on every occasion she has raced on it. The one thing to be said in her favour is 6f seems to be her best trip, but not on soft. If this was good to firm than she might have been in with a place chance, but it isn't, so she isn't. Foreign Rhythm is 0-4 over 6f and his 8l defeat over similar trip and ground at Haydock three stars ago just about says it all. I would be very surprised if this would be his first 6f win, it just doesn't add up. Jazz Stick has been off the track for nearly a year and would need a tremendous training performance and massive improvement to win this one. Mandelieu definitely prefers a firmer surface and this is his first time on actual soft ground. 8f defeat last time on good ground shows one of two things - either the handicapper has this one where he wants it or even good ground was a little on the soft side, maybe even both. Andrasta really hasn't gotten to grips with 6f and his latest performance at Thirsk in similar conditions was particularly concerning. Kinout hasn't won over 6f before and I get the impression soft ground and 6f will combine to create a difficult situation for him, so he's also ruled out. Night Premiere is neither here nor there and is very difficult to fancy returning to a soft turf 6f. That leaves me with 3 and they are the top two in the market, Tito and Chosen One, along with a 25/1 shot Baronovici. Tito is making his handicap debut and is thrown in 6lbs higher than Chosen One (also making handicap debut). The latter seemed more convincing when winning his Catterick maiden, but there are lingering question marks over the ground. Tito has tried similar ground before and did okay, so it's a tough one to break those two apart. The outsider I slightly fancy is Baronovici, who showed a lot of potential as a 2yo. Since making his return this year he has been a bit all over the place, but his mark is falling fast. He's now back on soft ground over 6f, a similar trip to when he showed potential as a 2yo. A mark of 55 and these conditions could very well bring a bit of like back to him and 25/1 must be worth a tiny each way dabble. If it fails...ah well.

[Blair Boy]

Re: Hamilton 21/09/08 3.10 Gresseem 6.00 Betfair Mark Johnston has won this race 3-4 since 2004 and has 2 runners in the race today, of the 2 Gresseem stuck out more having been sired by Indian Ridge who won first time out as a 2yo.