A QUESTION FOR THE MATHEMATITIONS

[Guest mad4bets]

Sorry,This is a bit off topic but i'm looking for a response and wasnt sure as to where to put it:o I,ve always had a bit of an intrest in greyhound racing because i believe they are so random,Form seems to mean nothing at all,Correct me if i'm wrong on anything i state! If there are 6 dogs per race that gives each dog a theoretical chance of 16.66% regardless of its 'form',ok?? If i had found a way of chucking one dog out(only 2/46 dogs have won that i chucked so far)then each dogs theroretical chance would then be 20% which equates to odds of 4-1. I would then choose 3 of the remaining 5 dogs i fancy and back 1,2 or all 3 of them but only if i get at least 9/2 about them. I'll try an example out below,bear with me i aint good at this:lol RACE 1 - L,L,W9/2 RACE 2 - L,L,W9/2 RACE 3 - L,L,L RACE 4 - L,L,W5-1 RACE 5 - L,L,L RACE 6 - L,L,W9/2 RACE 7 - L,L,11/2 RACE 8 - L,L,L RACE 9 - L,L,L RACE10 - L,L,9/2 RACE11 - L,L,9/2 POINTS STAKED - 33 POINTS RETURNED - 40 POINTS PROFIT - 7 The reason behind me doing this is that i,ve noticed on Betfair i can get some outragous prices on dogs that fit in with this system,Ive used 9/2,5 and 11/2 above but i've seen dogs i'd be intrested in available at 7's and 8's and they would never be that on the book? It maybe flawed,I;m not sure but i,m gonna test it anyway:x

[Guest madmick]

mathematicians.. Just had a quick look and the maths seems ok. However, my main worry would be with your assumptions: 1) each dog has an equal chance 2) form meaning nothing at all Both of these are linked. Personally, I know nothing about dogs (at least the 4 legged kind ;) ), but people whose opinions I respect hold the opposite view - they see dog racing as more amenable to form study. The fly in the ointment seems to be crooked races - although maybe it has been cleaned up a bit. I have also come accross research on prediction of dog-racing which seems to show that it can be modelled reasonably well. Of course the bookies might now be more sophisticated too ;)