Favourite-Longshot bias in tennis

[Joe]

Have now analysed betting odds data for the men's ATP tour matches in 2003, odds from Interwetten where the typical overround is about 114%. Sample was a little over 1,000 matches. If you'd backed every favourite (which for Interwetten means 1.7 or shorter) then the return yield would have been -7% If you'd backed every underdog (which for Interwetten means 1.8 or longer) then the return yield would have been -26% Personally, I think that's pretty damn conclusive for a bias, even if the sample size is only about 1,000. For the record, backing odds 1.3 or shorter gave a -0.7% yield, whilst backing odds 3 or longer gave a -46.9% yield. Longshot betting seems to me more of a mugs game in tennis than in football. Cjamars, you seem to be backing favourites most of the time. I'd say this is definitely the preferred strategy.

[Guest Weststander]

Re: Favourite-Longshot bias in tennis Hi Joe,don't panic....I might actually agree with you on this one:-) W.