Half time/Full time early season value

[Guest bcrazy]

After the first few weeks of the last 2 seasons I've seen a topic pop up asking if there is value in backing home/draw or away/draw @ 16/1. This is because it seems to happen so much at the start of the season and the bookies have still not changed their prices to react to this. After doing some research over the past 2 seasons it seems there is indeed value backing home/draw @ 16/1 for the first 5 weeks as 9 or 10 of the games (poor calculations so I'm not sure which) out of the 100 over the past 2 seasons had the home team leading at half time and the match ending in a draw. Admittedly in is a small sample size but it took a lot of time going through scoccerbase and I couldn't be bothered doing any more. Once I join Joe's site though, which I promise I will sometime, I will add more stats (hopefully supporting my idea). The starting bank is 100 units, the stake is 2 units and this weekends bets from HT/FT home/draw are: Portsmouth v Aston Villa @ 17.00 @ Bet365 Arsenal v Everton @ 26.00 @ Ladbrokes Birmingham v Tottenham @ 17.00 @ Bet365 Blackburn v Wolverhampton @ 17.00 @ Bet365 Fulham v Middlesborough @ 17.00 @ Bet365 Leicester v Southampton @ 17.00 @ Bet365 Man Utd v Bolton @ 29.00 @ BlueSq Charlton v Man City @ 17.00 @ Bet365 Leeds v Newcastle @ 17.00 @ Bet365 Liverpool v Chelsea @ 19.00 @ Tote

[Guest cjamars]

Re: Half time/Full time early season value Hiya Bcrazy I remember this idea going back a while> I think it might have been from a poster called "mydogdylan" and it definitely showed a profit for a while. I even think I did some work on it myself. I didn't puruse it because it definitely shows a loss over the course of a season (for all divisions I think). I don't think there is any particular reason why it should be more or less successful at the start of the season though? Also as I recall the bookies don't actually change their prices much for this bet. It generally is between 15s and 19s. Best of luck anyway