Winning on Exchanges by Trading.

[Guest jablunka]

I originally posted this in the wrong place, i am new to this so excuse any break in protocol etc Ok over the last year on betfair i have managed to make a very good profit purely betting and laying prices, however i stick to the one sport and one sport alone which is football (soccer), i have no hesitation in allowing you all to know how i do it, simply because it would make no difference to me and my playing the markets. I have found that in all football matches regardless of the odds you lay the draw and while the match is in running you lay the bets off, i will use last nights Real Madrid/Juventus match. At the beginning of the match i laid the draw at 3.6 at £100, as soon as real madrid scored i backed the draw instantly at 7/1 and 6/1 the 7/1 just vanished so quick (maybe a bot, who knows) anyhow at that point the profits across every single bet ie the win lose or draw was over in profit, not a lot , however this is where with your profits you can make the cash, i then backed Juve at £5 at odds of 20/1 and obviously when they equalized the odds on them fell to approx 8/1 and mysteriously on downwards to 6.6, i layed that portion off at 7.2 and 7.6 respectively, however i played the market after the first goal went, regardless of who scored it with a guaranteed profit, if Real Madrid had scored again i would have just sat on the profit and maybe backed a little safety on the draw, now the only risk to that bet is if the match finishes 0-0 as in the Southampton - Bolton match last Saturday, however your judgement will tell you when to lay the draw off and recoup approx 90% of your outlay, my loss in the match was only £10, yet my average winnings are approx £35 per match, taking into considerations all 0-0 draws. To verify the above do some research and you will see that all football matches that are live with in running on TV only 5% actually finish 0-0 (thats my records, could be different) As long as goal goes in then you will make some sort of profit, however there are pitfalls, as an example if Man utd are at home playing Exeter city there odds would probably be about 1-35 or something crazy and if Exeter were to score first (remember San Marino-England) the odds draw actually goes down, crazy i know but it does, therefore i leave purely one sided matches alone, but the premiership, Italian, Spanish. french (won heavily on Paris-Monaco on Saturday) and German matches, internationals etc are just gold mines. Tonight inter v Milan will prove my contention here, it will be another good night and at worst only a 10%- 20% loss max on stakes. I have laid the draw early like the mug i am at 3.35, now only 3.1, but thats a rare occurrence actually, as soon as a goal goes in i will lay off, look at the profits and use some of the profits to play the odds, but never go into a loss. If there is no goal by 55 minutes i then start to back the draw and at that point it would probably be about 2.7 - 2.8. But like i say a 0-0 draw these days is so rare on TV, seriously look at the results you will see. My last 6 bets were as follows Real madrid/Juventus score 2-1 profit of nearly £45 Chester/doncaster score at 90 mins 1-1 profit nearly £16 Southampton - Bolton score 0-0 loss £11.45 Leeds-arsenal score 3-2 profit £80 Paris - Monaco score 2-1 profit £48 Deportivo - Recreativo Huelva score 5-0 Profit £14 A s you can see not too bad, not on a pro level obviously but enough, now emotions can be the biggest killer the England Australia match killed me chasing England, so no England bets or Spurs bets. Obviously the more goals the better, the real madrid man u match at old trafford was like Christmas, however some goals were scored so quick and equalized that you could not lay the bets at all, betfair were still suspended, the arsenal man u match was a classic in that, still made a profit but if i had just a few mins between goals profits will be much larger. I don't do the above to boast or anything or to invite comments really, what i am trying to say is that all you have facing you are 3 sets of numbers and all you need to do is play the numbers, horses nope, wont work and same with most sports, the markets are not strong enough and so on, football have strong markets with realistic odds and if you choose all live in running matches that are fairly close, ie not silly matches, you will make a profit, try it tonight you will see, and if tonight i am left with egg on my face, you will see that any losses will be recuperated. The best part is, you don't really care who scores therefore guaranteeing entertainment and profit. My suggestions tonight are lay the draw now 3.2 and then wait for the first goal to go, then back the draw probably at about 4.2, then with the little guaranteed profit back the team that is behind, probably get about 8/1 and lay a little of the team that is winning. Thanks Aaron Edit: just given the thread a new, more relevant title. We can use any exchange for this.

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: Winning on Betfair Hi again. Thanks for that. Just wondering if you use a spreadsheet to calculate your in-running stakes, some other tool or good old fashioned mental arithmetic.