X Marks the Spot (Draw Lays) - Bundesliga Only

[Guest cjamars]

Just done some analysis of the Spanish and German Leagues using the draw generator that I have started for the Nationwide and Conference Divisions. Not really expecting a whole lot in England as the yield I now believe to be about 2% maximum there and there can be wide negative swings. However when I applied the draw generator to the Budesliga the results were very surprising. Allowing for an average exchange lay draw price of 3.6 (which seems right as the sample I calculated from Football Data’s files had a maximum average price of just under 10% lower than this I found the following results. Assumptions Below 1). Lay Price Available 3.6 On average 2). Commission 5% 3). Bank 100 Units 4). Stake To Win 1 Unit 2003/2002 SEASON BETS 154 STAKED - 400.4 WON - 119 LOST -35 S/R - 77.27% RETURN - 113.05 LOSS - 91 PROFIT + 22.05 YIELD + 5.51% 2002/2001 SEASON BETS 120 STAKED - 312 WON - 93 LOST -27 S/R - 77.50% RETURN - 88.35 LOSS - 70.2 PROFIT + 18.15 YIELD + 5.82% 2001/2000 SEASON BETS 145 STAKED - 377 WON - 114 LOST -31 S/R - 78.62% RETURN - 108.30 LOSS - 80.6 PROFIT + 27.70 YIELD + 7.35% The strike rate for the last 3 years has been remarkably consistent and with a yield of over 5% in all 3 years tested. With a fixed stake plan of 5% of bank every year it would have been possible to more than double the bank each year (up 262% in season 2001/2000 and up 212% last year) :p :p . To date this year there has been 10 winners from 13. I applied the draw generator to La Liga for the last three years and it made a small loss yield wise every year but a huge loss versus the bank due to the high volunme of bets found. The system is based on a number of factors with special significance to the projected number of goals scored and conceded with weightings for the last 5,10,20 and 50 games of the teams against a factor for the opposition played. I am working on the assumptions that over a certain threshold between the teams and there is a win (1/2) projected so the draw is then layed. I’m not too au fait with German football and I’m wondering why I should be getting such a consistent up pattern here vs the other Leagues I’ve tested which either fluctuate a good bit (England) or are negative (Spain) no matter how I fiddle with the program’s parameters. The draw frequency doesn’t seem too different between the countries in terms of %s and the bookies odds look pretty similar to UK matches. I’m going to extend the sample back further for the Bundesliga and also try France and Italy. I’m pretty excited about this program now and am just wondering at what stage I could say that this 5% yield was more than an anomaly? If it was not an anomaly then wouldn’t a very aggressive staking plan be in order? I’ll run this as a parralell thread for the systems League with a more aggressive staking plan (5% of bank staked) and see what happens unless someone can demolish this.